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28.07.2026 21:15 UTC
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28.07.2026 21:15 UTC
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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Deportes Quindio - Deportes Tolima
D
Deportes Quindio
-
:
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Not started
D
Deportes Tolima
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Deportes Tolima — 43%
Pure model vs market (2 · Deportes Tolima): model 47% · market 42% Δ +5 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Deportes Quindio 24.0%, draw 32.5%, win Deportes Tolima 43.5%. Model favourite — Deportes Tolima.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Deportes Tolima (odds2.18)
Score 0:1
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Tolima: probability 50% vs 46% on the line (odds 2.18)
- • edge over the line +4 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 0:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Deportes Quindio - Deportes Tolima July 28, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Deportes Tolima. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.00 / X 2.77 / 2 2.30
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 4.6%
1
23.9%
X
34.5%
2
41.6%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Deportes Quindio
1
:
1
Deportes Tolima
13.95
X2.70
22.11
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Deportes Quindio - Deportes Tolima
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
H2H
Line
More needed
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Deportes Quindio
23.5%
24.0%
Draw
33.2%
32.5%
draw risk
Deportes Tolima
43.3%
43.5%
market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
24.0% / 32.5% / 43.5%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,400 / 1,660
Deportes Quindio / Deportes Tolima
RD
291 / 250
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
818-1,983 / 1,160-2,159
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.16
market consensus · no value · model 43.5%
X
2.74
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
3.82
market consensus · no value · model 24.0%
Double chance
12
1.40
market consensus · no value · model 67.5%
1X
1.60
market consensus · no value · model 56.5%
X2
1.22
market consensus · no value · model 76.0%
Handicap
2 0
1.47
market consensus · line only
1 0
2.52
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.19
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.61
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.56
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.29
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.56 64.1% |
| yes | 2.29 43.7% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.39 71.9% | 1.41 70.9% |
| 1x | 1.65 60.6% | 1.55 64.5% |
| x2 | 1.20 83.3% | 1.24 80.7% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 5.10 19.6% | |
| X | 1.73 57.8% |
| 2.98 33.6% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.65 60.6% |
| Over 1 | 2.27 44.1% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.10 47.6% |
| Under 1 | 1.57 63.7% |
Match center
Form & head-to-head
H2H 0-0-1, avg 3.0 gls
2026-07-21 · Kindio 1:2 Deportes Tolima
Source: ruscore
Odds · 2 bookmakers
Best price: 1 3 (Winline) · X 3.4 (Winline) · 2 2.16 (Liga Stavok)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winline | 3 | 3.4 | 2.15 |
| Liga Stavok | 3 | 3.4 | 2.16 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Deportes Quindio
L
Deportes Quindio
1:2
Tolima
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
2.0
Conceded
0
Points
Deportes Tolima
W
Deportes Tolima
2:1
Kindio
1
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
2.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyDeportes Quindio - Deportes Tolima
Deportes Quindio
1
matches total
Deportes Quindio: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Deportes Tolima: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Tolima 1:2 (21.07 21:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (1:2, 21.07 21:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Kindio
1:2
Tolima
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- Win probabilities & value flags
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