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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
06.08.2026 00:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
06.08.2026 00:00 UTC
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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Santa Fe - Union Magdalena

Football
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
- : -
Not started
U
Union Magdalena

Santa Fe face Union Magdalena on August 6, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.

Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Santa Fe — 66%

Pure model vs market (1 · Santa Fe): model 42% · market 67% Δ −25 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Santa Fe ✓ Pick66.1%
market67%
X · draw20.4%
market20%
2 · Union Magdalena13.5%
market12%

Model estimate: win Santa Fe 66.1%, draw 20.4%, win Union Magdalena 13.5%. Model favourite — Santa Fe.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Santa Fe (odds1.36) Score 2:0 confidence 66%
  • • Model backs Santa Fe: probability 66% vs 74% on the line (odds 1.36)
  • • no edge over the line (-8 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Santa Fe - Union Magdalena August 6, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Santa Fe. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.38 / X 4.60 / 2 7.70

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.0% 2 books · best price +1.5%
1 ✓ Pick 67.5%
X 20.2%
2 12.3%

Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Copa Colombia
Best price across 10 books
1 1.38 Betano
X 5.00 BetVictor
2 8.70 10Bet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Santa Fe
W-D-L 4-4-2 Scored 1.43 Conceded 1.13 xG 1.36 xGA 1.01
Union Magdalena
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 1.08 Conceded 1.02 xG 0.97 xGA 1.44

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Santa Fe
Rating 1663
Union Magdalena
Rating 1467

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Santa Fe 1 : 1 Union Magdalena
12.75
X2.97
22.42

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 06.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Market 1 67.6% @ 1.38 / X 20.3% @ 4.60 / 2 12.1% @ 7.70
Match center

Santa Fe - Union Magdalena

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Santa Fe 67.6% 66.1% market and model agree
Draw 20.3% 20.4% draw risk
Union Magdalena 12.1% 13.5%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 66.1% / 20.4% / 13.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,481 / 1,513 Santa Fe / Union Magdalena
RD 253 / 282 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 975-1,987 / 950-2,077 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.45 market consensus · no value · model 13.5%
X 4.55 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.36 market consensus · no value · model 66.1%
Double chance
12 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 79.6%
1X 1.06 market consensus · no value · model 86.5%
X2 2.80 market consensus · no value · model 33.9%
Both teams to score
No 2.04 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.69 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.04 49.0%
yes 1.69 59.2%

Double chance

Outcome Betcity
12 1.16 86.2%
1x 1.06 94.3%
x2 2.80 35.7%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.83 54.6%
X 2.39 41.8%
6.80 14.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.21 45.3%
Under 1.5 1.60 62.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

Santa FeDWLWWDWDWD
Union MagdalenaDLDDWLWDWL
H2H 1-0-0, avg 1.0 gls
2025-03-30 · Santa-Fe 1:0 Union Magdalena
Source: ruscore
Santa Fe
D L
03.08 01:00 UTC+0 Colombia: Primera A - Clausura Standings
Santa Fe 2:2 Onse KaldasOnse Kaldas
26.07 19:05 UTC+0 Colombia: Primera A - Clausura Standings
Santa Fe 1:2 Agilas Doradas
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.5 Scored
2.0 Conceded
1 Points
Union Magdalena
D L
31.07 23:00 UTC+0 Fonbet football live
Union Magdalena 0:0 Orsomarso
25.07 19:00 UTC+0 Colombia: Primera B - Clausura Standings
Union Magdalena 0:1 Bogota
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
0.5 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySanta Fe - Union Magdalena

Santa Fe
0 matches total
Union Magdalena
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history