Colombia. Serie A
Deportes Tolima take on Independiente Medellin on August 4, 2026 in the Colombia. Serie A.
Recent form (W-D-L): Deportes Tolima 2-0-0, Independiente Medellin 2-0-0. The bookmaker line makes Deportes Tolima the favourite at about 46%. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Deportes Tolima — 45%
Pure model vs market (1 · Deportes Tolima): model 39% · market 45% Δ −6 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Deportes Tolima 44.9%, draw 29.0%, win Independiente Medellin 26.2%. Model favourite — Deportes Tolima.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Deportes Tolima.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 16 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Baltbet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
football, Deportes Tolima - Independente Medelin, 5 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Deportes Tolima - Independente Medelin, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Championship Kolumbii po futbolu (Primera A) 2026, Clausura. 3-y Round.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.12 47.2% | 2.03 49.3% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.07 48.3% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.05 48.8% | |
| X | 3.15 31.8% | 3.12 32.1% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.20 31.3% |
| 3.60 27.8% | 3.83 26.1% | 3.80 26.3% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.50 28.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.79 55.9% |
| yes | 1.95 51.3% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.31 76.3% | 1.30 76.9% |
| 1x | 1.23 81.3% | 1.24 80.7% |
| x2 | 1.62 61.7% | 1.69 59.2% |
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 0_1 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 0_2 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 0_3 | 34.00 2.9% |
| 0_4 | 91.00 1.1% |
| 1_0 | 5.75 17.4% |
| 1_1 | 5.50 18.2% |
| 1_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 1_3 | 26.00 3.9% |
| 1_4 | 67.00 1.5% |
| 2_0 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 2_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 2_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_3 | 31.00 3.2% |
| 2_4 | 81.00 1.2% |
| 3_0 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 3_1 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 3_2 | 23.00 4.4% |
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| Winline | 2.09 | 3 | 3.45 |
| Fonbet | 2 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Betcity | 2 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Liga Stavok | 1.95 | 3.1 | 3.75 |
Deportivo Kali
Full head-to-head historyDeportes Tolima - Independiente Medellin
Deportes Tolima Independente Medelin 25 Games 21 12 Wins 9 7 Draws 5 6 Losses 7 35 Scored 30 23 Conceded 26 43 Points 32 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0.36 Sendoffs 0.29 Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 20% 40% 40% Double chance 30% 30% 40% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1334382' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Colombia — Primera A Turnirnaya Standings
The Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellin breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
