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Colombia. Serie A

Clausura. 3-y Round 04.08.2026 21:10 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

04.08.2026 21:10 UTC Clausura. 3-y Round

Finished

Colombia. Serie A

Llaneros - Fortaleza FC

Football

Llaneros

3 : 1

Finished

Fortaleza FC

Llaneros go head-to-head with Fortaleza FC on August 4, 2026 in the Colombia. Serie A.

Recent form (W-D-L): Llaneros 1-1-0, Fortaleza FC 0-1-0. The market favourite is Llaneros at roughly 44%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 44% to win — broadly in line with the market. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Llaneros — 44%

Pure model vs market (1 · Llaneros): model 46% · market 44% Δ +2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Llaneros43.8%

X · draw30.5%

2 · Fortaleza FC25.7%

Model estimate: win Llaneros 43.8%, draw 30.5%, win Fortaleza FC 25.7%. Model favourite — Llaneros.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Llaneros (odds2.28) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct

• Model backs Lyaneros: probability 50% vs 44% on the line (odds 2.28)
• edge over the line +6 pp — value pick
• Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Llaneros - Fortaleza FC August 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Llaneros.

Strongest: Llaneros - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.12 / X 2.97 / 2 3.71
1X2 market: Llaneros 43.8% / X 31.3% / Fortaleza FC 25.0%
Glicko: Llaneros 43.8% / X 30.5% / Fortaleza FC 25.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.5% 16 books · best price +2.8%

1 43.7%

X 31.0%

2 25.4%

Odds source: consensus of 16 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Baltbet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera A

League table

Llaneros

#1426 ptsGP 215-11-519:21

Fortaleza FC

#1524 ptsGP 215-9-723:28

Best price across 14 books

1 2.19 Pinnacle

X 3.15 Unibet

2 4.13 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Llaneros

W-D-L 2-6-2 Scored 0.70 Conceded 1.00 xG 1.03 xGA 1.40 Corners 5.5

Fortaleza FC

W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 1.00 Conceded 1.19 xG 1.10 xGA 1.26 Corners 4.4

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

Llaneros

Rating 1503 xG 1.21 Win 42%

Fortaleza FC

Rating 1480 xG 0.97 Win 29%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Llaneros 0 : 0 Fortaleza FC

12.11

X2.92

23.90

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated03.08.2026 22:15 UTC

1 42% ✓ favourite

X 36%

2 22%

Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1X and Under 2.5

Per AI data H2H: 1-1

Claude updated03.08.2026 22:18 UTC

1 44% ✓ favourite

X 31%

2 25%

Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Under 2.5 (Total Under 2.5 golov)

AI consensus:1

AI	1	X	2	Score	Total goals	BTTS	Bet
Google AI	42%	36%	22%	1:1	Under 2.5	No	1X and Under 2.5
Claude	44%	31%	25%	1:0	Under 2.5	No	Under 2.5 (Total Under 2.5 golov)

Buy the full AI analysis

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Match center

Start 04.08.2026 21:10 UTC

Market 1 43.8% @ 2.12 / X 31.2% @ 2.97 / 2 25.0% @ 3.71

🥊 Humans vs Machines

🤖 7 AI models Llaneros 43%

📐 Math model Llaneros 44%

💹 Market Llaneros 4375%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Llaneros - Fortaleza FC

football, Lyaneros - Fortalesa, 5 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Lyaneros - Fortalesa, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Championship Kolumbii po futbolu (Primera A) 2026, Clausura. 3-y Round.

Form 2/1 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Overview

More needed

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Movement Line history

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:1

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Llaneros 43.7% 43.8% market and model agree

Draw 31.0% 30.5% draw risk

Fortaleza FC 25.4% 25.7%

xG - 1.21 : 0.97

1X2: 16 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 43.8% / 30.5% / 25.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,624 / 1,572 Llaneros Villavicencio / Fortaleza

RD 249 / 131 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,125-2,122 / 1,310-1,834 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.71 market consensus · no value · model 25.7%

X 2.96 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.12 market consensus · no value · model 43.8%

Double chance

12 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 69.5%

1X 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 74.3%

X2 1.63 market consensus · no value · model 56.2%

Handicap

2 +0.5 1.68 market consensus · line only

2 0 2.58 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 2.07 market consensus · line only

1 0 1.46 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.44 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.52 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.76 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.00 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
	2.14 46.7%	2.14 46.7%	2.15 46.5%	2.12 47.2%	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%
X	3.05 32.8%	2.86 35.0%	3.00 33.3%	2.95 33.9%	3.00 33.3%	3.00 33.3%
	3.65 27.4%	3.90 25.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.85 26.0%	3.60 27.8%	3.60 27.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	Leon
no	1.76 56.8%
yes	2.00 50.0%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
12	1.33 75.2%	1.37 73.0%
1x	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%
x2	1.61 62.1%	1.64 61.0%

Exact Score

Outcome	10Bet
0_0	6.50 15.4%
0_1	7.00 14.3%
0_2	15.00 6.7%
0_3	41.00 2.4%
0_4	101.00 1.0%
1_0	5.00 20.0%
1_1	5.25 19.1%
1_2	10.00 10.0%
1_3	29.00 3.5%
1_4	81.00 1.2%
2_0	8.00 12.5%
2_1	7.50 13.3%
2_2	13.00 7.7%
2_3	41.00 2.4%
2_4	101.00 1.0%
3_0	17.00 5.9%
3_1	15.00 6.7%
3_2	29.00 3.5%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-1-1, avg 1.5 gls

2026-01-27 · Lyaneros 1:1 Fortaleza

2025-04-18 · Lyaneros 0:1 Fortaleza

Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.08 (Liga Stavok) · X 3 (Pari) · 2 3.85 (Pari)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	2.05	3	3.85
Winline	2.06	2.9	3.7
Fonbet	2.05	3	3.85
Betcity	2.07	3	3.8
Liga Stavok	2.08	2.95	3.6

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Llaneros

D W

30.07 23:00 UTC Colombia: Primera A - Clausura Standings

Llaneros 1:1 Bukaramanga

24.07 21:10 UTC Colombia: Primera A - Clausura Standings

Llaneros 1:0 Pereyra

1 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.0 Scored

0.5 Conceded

4 Points

Fortaleza FC

26.07 21:10 UTC Colombia: Primera A - Clausura Standings

Fortaleza FC 1:1 Petrolera

0 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

1 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyLlaneros - Fortaleza FC

Llaneros

0 matches total

Fortaleza FC

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Llaneros

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Fortaleza FC

21 Games 21

5 Wins 5

11 Draws 9

5 Losses 7

19 Scored 23

21 Conceded 28

26 Points 24

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

0 Shots on goal 0

0 Udary v stvor 0

21 Games 21

5 Wins 5

11 Draws 9

5 Losses 7

19 Scored 23

21 Conceded 28

Lyaneros Fortalesa 21 Games 21 5 Wins 5 11 Draws 9 5 Losses 7 19 Scored 23 21 Conceded 28 26 Points 24 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0.24 Sendoffs 0.19 Goly Joan Cajares 0:1 4' Jhon Vasquez 1 18' Neider Ospina 2:1 35' Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 25% 25% 50% Double chance 25% 37% 38% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1334384' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Colombia — Primera A Turnirnaya Standings