Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 7.9%
123.2%
X28.1%
2 ✓ Pick48.8%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Zeledon23.2%23.1%
Draw28.1%17.4%draw risk
Cartagines48.8%59.6%market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P223.1% / 17.4% / 59.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,252 / 1,635
Zeledon / Cartagines
RD281 / 255
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD689-1,814 / 1,125-2,145
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.90
market consensus · value +13.2% · model 59.6%
X3.30
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
14.00
market consensus · no value · model 23.1%
Double chance
121.29
market consensus · value +6.6% · model 82.6%
1X1.80
market consensus · no value · model 40.4%
X21.20
market consensus · no value · model 76.9%
Handicap
2 01.36
market consensus · line only
1 02.90
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.52.06
market consensus · line only
Under 2.51.68
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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