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La Liga
La Liga Spain
05.10.2025 12:00 UTC Match prediction
05.10.2025 12:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Alaves - Elche

Spain Football
Alaves
Alaves
3 : 1
Finished
Elche
Elche

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Alaves - Elche October 5, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alaves.

Line favourite market consensus: Alaves. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.35 / X 2.97 / 2 3.47
  • 1X2 market: Alaves 40.4% / X 32.1% / Elche 27.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 64.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 40.5%
X 32.1%
2 27.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.3%
Over 2.5 35.1%
Under 2.5 64.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 05.10.2025 12:00 UTC
Match center

Alaves - Elche

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.48 market consensus · line only
X 2.96 market consensus · line only
1 2.36 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.60 market consensus · line only
12 1.39 market consensus · line only
1X 1.32 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.62 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.24 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.46 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.73 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.68 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.45 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.65 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.18 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.42 41.3%
X 2.92 34.3%
3.68 27.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.34 42.7% 2.36 42.4% 2.44 41.0% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.40 41.7%
X 2.96 33.8% 3.15 31.8% 3.10 32.3% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 2.82 35.5%
3.40 29.4% 3.35 29.9% 3.52 28.4% 3.30 30.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.60 27.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.65 60.6% 1.66 60.2% 1.64 61.0% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.70 58.8% 1.60 62.5% 1.63 61.4% 1.70 58.8%
yes 2.10 47.6% 2.23 44.8% 2.14 46.7% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.07 48.3% 2.25 44.4% 2.14 46.7% 2.25 44.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.35 74.1%
Match center
Alaves
L D L W D
27.09 16:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 0:1 MallorcaMallorca
24.09 17:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:1 GetafeGetafe
20.09 16:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:2 SevillaSevilla
13.09 16:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:0 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
30.08 15:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:1 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
5 Points
Elche
W D W D W
28.09 14:15 UTC La Liga
Elche 2:1 SeltaSelta
25.09 17:30 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:1 OsasunaOsasuna
21.09 16:30 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:0 OviedoOviedo
12.09 19:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 2:2 SevillaSevilla
29.08 17:30 UTC La Liga
Elche 2:0 LevanteLevante
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAlaves - Elche

Alaves
0 matches total
Elche
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history