Match center
Start
25.04.2026 12:00 UTC
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25.04.2026 12:00 UTC
Finished
La Liga
Alaves - Mallorca
2
:
1
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Alaves — 41%
Model estimate: win Alaves 40.6%, draw 27.9%, win Mallorca 31.5%. Model favourite — Alaves.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Alaves - Mallorca April 25, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alaves.
Strongest: Alaves - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.15 / X 3.07 / 2 3.69
- 1X2 market: Alaves 43.7% / X 30.7% / Mallorca 25.6%
- Glicko: Alaves 40.6% / X 27.9% / Mallorca 31.5%
- Total 2.5: over probability 82.0%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.2%
1
43.8%
X
30.7%
2
25.5%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5
42.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
4/5
Confidence
48.6%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Alaves 41%
💹 Market
Alaves 4372%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Alaves - Mallorca
Alaves: Win 2.15 Alaves: Draw 3.00 Mallorca Win: 3.75 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Alaves bolshe 1.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Alaves menshe 1.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Mallorca bolshe 0.5…
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:1
Events
15
Statistics
24
Lineups
44
min
Event
Player
Team
4'
4' Substitution 1 | Lucas Boyé | assist/sub out: Ibrahim Diabaté
Jefferson Wila
Alaves
18'
18' Normal Goal | Jan Virgili | assist/sub out: Samú Costa
Mallorca
26'
26' Yellow Card | Jonny Otto
Sacha Grandvincent
Alaves
56'
56' Normal Goal | Toni Martínez | assist/sub out: Abderrahman Rebbach
Alaves
59'
59' Yellow Card | Martin Valjent
Mallorca
63'
63' Substitution 2 | Carles AleG±GЎ | assist/sub out: Denis Suarez
Alaves
69'
69' Normal Goal | Toni Martínez | assist/sub out: Ángel Pérez
Alaves
70'
70' Substitution 1 | Pablo Torre | assist/sub out: Manu Morlanes
Mallorca
Metric
Alaves
Mallorca
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.22
0.22
final
Zablokirovannye udary
7
2
final
Shots off target
4
0
final
Shots on target
4
2
final
Udary vsego
15
4
final
Fouls soversheno
15
14
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
1
final
Offsides
1
0
final
Alaves
#1 Sivera, #7 A. Perez, #8 Antonio Blanco, #10 Carles AleG±GЎ, #11 Toni MartGnez, #14 N. Tenaglia, #15 L. BoyG©, #17 Jonny, #19 Pablo IbGЎG±ez, #21 A. Rebbach, #24 VGctor Parada
Mallorca
#1 L. Roman, #5 Omar Mascarell, #7 V. Muriqi, #10 S. Darder, #12 Samu Costa, #17 J. Virgili, #20 P. Torre, #22 J. Mojica, #23 P. Maffeo, #24 M. Valjent, #27 D. Lopez
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Egoitz MuG±oz
Seyvy
0
A. Prats
Mallorca
football.player.assists
0
A. Prats
Mallorca
Dribling popytki
1
A. Prats
Mallorca
Edinoborstva vyigrano
4
A. Prats
Mallorca
Seyvy
0
A. Prats
Mallorca
football.player.minutes_played
9
A. Prats
Mallorca
Reyting (staryy)
6.2
A. Sanchez
Mallorca
Seyvy
0
Cesc Riba
Mallorca
Seyvy
0
D. Lopez
Mallorca
football.player.assists
0
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Alaves
44.0%
40.6%
market and model agree
Draw
30.8%
27.9%
draw risk
Mallorca
25.3%
31.5%
xG
-
1.26 : 1.08
Total 2.5
Over 82.0%
-
Under 18.0%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.06
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
40.6% / 27.9% / 31.5%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,468 / 1,486
Alaves / Mallorca
RD
73 / 72
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.69
market consensus · no value · model 31.5%
X
3.07
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.15
market consensus · no value · model 40.6%
Double chance
X2
1.69
market consensus · no value · model 59.4%
12
1.35
market consensus · no value · model 72.1%
1X
1.27
market consensus · no value · model 68.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.71
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.31
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.56
market consensus · line only
2 +1
7.10
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.23
market consensus · weak value +82.9% · model 82.0%
Under 2.5
1.66
market consensus · no value · model 18.0%
Both teams to score
No
1.84
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.90
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.12 47.2% | 2.24 44.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.15 46.5% | |
| X | 3.10 32.3% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.10 32.3% |
| 3.65 27.4% | 3.90 25.6% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.90 25.6% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.85 54.1% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.81 55.3% | 1.84 54.4% |
| yes | 1.90 52.6% | 1.89 52.9% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.89 52.9% | 1.88 53.2% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.70 58.8% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.67 59.9% |
| home_away | 1.30 76.9% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.30 76.9% |
| home_draw | 1.25 80.0% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.25 80.0% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.08 92.6% | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.05 95.2% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.08 92.6% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.22 82.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.40 71.4% | 1.36 73.5% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.46 68.5% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.63 61.4% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 1.91 52.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.20 45.5% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 4.00 25.0% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.50 13.3% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 2.88 34.7% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.65 60.6% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.22 82.0% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.07 93.5% | — |
Match center
Alaves
Founded
1921
Mallorca
Founded
1916
Match center
Alaves
L
D
D
W
D
21.04 19:30 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
1:2
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
11.04 12:00 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
3:3
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
05.04 19:00 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
2:2
Osasuna
Osasuna
22.03 15:15 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
4:3
Selta
Selta
13.03 20:00 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
1:1
Villarreal
Villarreal
1
Wins
3
Draws
1
Losses
2.2
Scored
2.2
Conceded
6
Points
Mallorca
D
W
W
L
W
21.04 17:00 UTC
La Liga
Mallorca
1:1
Valencia
Valencia
12.04 14:15 UTC
La Liga
Mallorca
3:0
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
04.04 14:15 UTC
La Liga
Mallorca
2:1
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
21.03 13:00 UTC
La Liga
Mallorca
1:2
Elche
Elche
15.03 13:00 UTC
La Liga
Mallorca
2:1
Espanyol
Espanyol
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.8
Scored
1.0
Conceded
10
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAlaves - Mallorca
Alaves
1
matches total
Alaves: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Mallorca: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Mallorca 0:1 (27.09 16:30 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
1 goals (0:1, 27.09 16:30 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
27.09 16:30 UTC
La Liga
La Liga
Alaves
0:1
Mallorca
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form