Match center
Start
05.04.2026 19:00 UTC
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05.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished
La Liga
Alaves - Osasuna
2
:
2
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Osasuna — 36%
Model estimate: win Alaves 35.1%, draw 28.8%, win Osasuna 36.1%. Model favourite — Osasuna.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Alaves - Osasuna April 5, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alaves.
Line favourite market consensus: Alaves. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.65 / X 3.12 / 2 2.85
- 1X2 market: Alaves 36.0% / X 30.6% / Osasuna 33.4%
- Glicko: Alaves 35.1% / X 28.8% / Osasuna 36.1%
- Total 2.5: over probability 50.4%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 4.9%
1
36.0%
X
30.6%
2
33.5%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5
42.5%
Under 2.5
57.5%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
30.0%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Osasuna 36%
💹 Market
Alaves 3597%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Alaves - Osasuna
Alaves: Win 2.60 Alaves: Draw 3.20 Osasuna Win: 2.80 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Alaves bolshe 1.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Alaves menshe 1.5: 1.40 Individualnyy total golov Osasuna bolshe 1.5: …
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
2
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
yes
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:2
Events
22
Statistics
26
Lineups
43
min
Event
Player
Team
0'
0' Red Card | A. Osambela
Osasuna
4'
4' Normal Goal | V. Rosier | assist/sub out: K. Barja
R. Aigbekaen
Osasuna
16'
16' Yellow Card | V. Rosier
R. Aigbekaen
Osasuna
41'
41' Yellow Card | A. Blanco
Alaves
41'
41' Yellow Card | K. Barja
Osasuna
44'
44' Normal Goal | T. Martinez | assist/sub out: A. Blanco
Alaves
46'
46' Substitution 1 | J. Guridi | assist/sub out: C. Alena
Alaves
46'
46' Substitution 2 | Yusi | assist/sub out: A. Rebbach
Alaves
Metric
Alaves
Osasuna
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
2.07
1.31
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
3
final
Shots off target
9
0
final
Shots on target
6
5
final
Udary vsego
18
8
final
Fouls soversheno
7
17
final
Red cards
0
1
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
5
final
Alaves
#1 Sivera, #3 Yusi, #7 A. Perez, #8 Antonio Blanco, #11 Toni MartGnez, #14 N. Tenaglia, #17 Jonny, #18 Jon Guridi, #19 Pablo IbGЎG±ez, #22 I. Diabate, #24 VGctor Parada
Osasuna
#1 S. Herrera, #6 L. Torro, #7 J. Moncayola, #10 A. Oroz, #11 K. Barja, #14 R. Garcia, #17 A. Budimir, #19 V. Rosier, #20 J. Galan, #22 F. Boyomo, #24 A. Catena
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Aitor MaG±as
Seyvy
0
Egoitz MuG±oz
Seyvy
0
A. Perez
Alaves
football.player.assists
0
A. Perez
Alaves
Dribling popytki
1
A. Perez
Alaves
Dribling uspeshno
4
A. Perez
Alaves
Edinoborstva vyigrano
8
A. Perez
Alaves
Fouls na igroke
1
A. Perez
Alaves
Seyvy
0
A. Perez
Alaves
football.player.minutes_played
90
A. Perez
Alaves
Tochnost pasov %
2
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Alaves
36.3%
35.1%
market favourite
Draw
31.4%
28.8%
draw risk
Osasuna
32.2%
36.1%
Glicko contrarian
xG
-
1.11 : 1.13
Total 2.5
Over 50.4%
-
Under 49.6%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
35.1% / 28.8% / 36.1%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,463 / 1,513
Alaves / Osasuna
RD
75 / 74
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.85
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.1%
X
3.12
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.65
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.1%
Double chance
X2
1.47
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 64.9%
12
1.36
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 71.2%
1X
1.42
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.50
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.17
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.77
market consensus · line only
2 +1
5.15
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.25
market consensus · value +13.4% · model 50.4%
Under 2.5
1.66
market consensus · no value · model 49.6%
Both teams to score
No
1.86
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.88
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.60 38.5% | 2.66 37.6% | 2.77 36.1% | 2.60 38.5% | 2.62 38.2% | 2.65 37.7% | |
| X | 3.10 32.3% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.10 32.3% |
| 2.76 36.2% | 2.85 35.1% | 2.92 34.3% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.75 36.4% | 2.85 35.1% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.85 54.1% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.84 54.4% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.82 55.0% |
| yes | 1.90 52.6% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.88 53.2% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.48 67.6% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.44 69.4% |
| home_away | 1.30 76.9% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.30 76.9% |
| home_draw | 1.42 70.4% | 1.46 68.5% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.45 69.0% | 1.40 71.4% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.08 92.6% | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.05 95.2% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.08 92.6% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.23 81.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.42 70.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| Over 2.25 | — | 2.00 50.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 | 2.20 45.5% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 4.20 23.8% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.50 13.3% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 2.85 35.1% | — | — |
| Under 2.0 | — | 2.05 48.8% | — |
| Under 2.25 | — | 1.90 52.6% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.65 60.6% | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.22 82.0% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.07 93.5% | — | — |
Match center
Alaves
Founded
1921
Osasuna
Founded
1920
Match center
Alaves
LB
L. Boyé
Foot Injury
DS
Denis Suárez
Yellow Cards
Osasuna
IB
Iker Benito
Knee Injury
Alaves
Founded: 1921
Osasuna
Founded: 1920
Match center
Alaves
W
D
L
L
D
22.03 15:15 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
4:3
Selta
Selta
13.03 20:00 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
1:1
Villarreal
Villarreal
08.03 20:00 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
2:3
Valencia
Valencia
27.02 20:00 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
0:2
Levante
Levante
23.02 20:00 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
2:2
Girona
Girona
1
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
1.8
Scored
2.2
Conceded
5
Points
Osasuna
W
L
D
L
W
21.03 17:30 UTC
La Liga
Osasuna
1:0
Girona
Girona
15.03 20:00 UTC
La Liga
Osasuna
1:3
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
07.03 13:00 UTC
La Liga
Osasuna
2:2
Mallorca
Mallorca
01.03 15:15 UTC
La Liga
Osasuna
0:1
Valencia
Valencia
21.02 17:30 UTC
La Liga
Osasuna
2:1
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
1.2
Scored
1.4
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAlaves - Osasuna
Alaves
2
matches total
Alaves: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Osasuna: 1 (50%)
Biggest win
Osasuna 0:3 (20.12 17:30 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (0:3, 20.12 17:30 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
1:1 (24.05 19:00 UTC)
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
20.12 17:30 UTC
La Liga
La Liga
Alaves
0:3
Osasuna
24.05 19:00 UTC
La Liga
La Liga
Alaves
1:1
Osasuna
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The Alaves - Osasuna breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form