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La Liga
La Liga Spain
04.01.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction
04.01.2026 17:30 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Alaves - Oviedo

Spain Football
Alaves
Alaves
1 : 1
Finished
Oviedo
Oviedo

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Alaves - Oviedo January 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alaves.

Line favourite market consensus: Alaves. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.90 / X 3.06 / 2 5.11
  • 1X2 market: Alaves 50.2% / X 31.1% / Oviedo 18.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 67.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 50.2%
X 31.2%
2 18.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 32.6%
Under 2.5 67.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.01.2026 17:30 UTC
Match center

Alaves - Oviedo

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.12 market consensus · line only
X 3.06 market consensus · line only
1 1.90 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.93 market consensus · line only
12 1.37 market consensus · line only
1X 1.18 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.96 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.43 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.82 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.89 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.91 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.41 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.52 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.46 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.92 52.1%
X 3.10 32.3%
5.33 18.8%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.96 51.0% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.93 51.8%
X 2.98 33.6% 3.10 32.3% 3.18 31.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3%
5.00 20.0% 5.10 19.6% 5.23 19.1% 4.80 20.8% 5.25 19.1% 5.40 18.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.53 65.4% 1.55 64.5% 1.51 66.2% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5%
yes 2.40 41.7% 2.46 40.7% 2.41 41.5% 2.40 41.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.35 42.6% 2.50 40.0% 2.41 41.5% 2.58 38.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.85 54.1% 1.94 51.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.41 70.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.41 70.9%
home_draw 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.20 83.3%
Match center
Alaves
L L W L L
20.12 17:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 0:3 OsasunaOsasuna
14.12 20:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:2 Real MadridReal Madrid
06.12 15:15 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:0 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
29.11 15:15 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:3 BarselonaBarselona
22.11 13:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 0:1 SeltaSelta
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
3 Points
Oviedo
D L D L D
20.12 13:00 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 0:0 SeltaSelta
14.12 13:00 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 0:4 SevillaSevilla
05.12 20:00 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 0:0 MallorcaMallorca
29.11 20:00 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 0:2 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
23.11 13:00 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 0:0 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAlaves - Oviedo

Alaves
0 matches total
Oviedo
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history