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La Liga
La Liga Spain
38 round 23.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
23.05.2026 19:00 UTC 38 round
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Alaves - Rayo Vallecano

Spain Football
Alaves
Alaves
1 : 2
Finished
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Alaves - Rayo Vallecano May 23, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alaves.

Line favourite market consensus: Alaves. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.41 / X 3.20 / 2 3.08
  • 1X2 market: Alaves 39.4% / X 29.7% / Rayo Vallecano 30.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 39.4%
X 29.7%
2 30.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 44.7%
Under 2.5 55.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Stadium Mendisorrosa (Vitoriya, Spain), 17 276 zriteley (87% pri vmestimosti 19 840)
Referee Khesus Khil Mansano (Don-Benito)
Start 23.05.2026 19:00 UTC
Match center

Alaves - Rayo Vallecano

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Alaves - Rayo Valekano, 23 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Spain po futbolu (La Liga) 2025-2026, 38 round. Alaves - Rayo Valekano, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.09 Fonbet · line only
X 6.40 Fonbet · line only
1 2.41 market consensus · line only
Double chance
12 1.08 Fonbet · line only
1X 6.00 Fonbet · line only
X2 1.23 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 7.10 Fonbet · line only
2 0 2.25 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 1.05 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.40 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.57 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.40 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.52 39.7% 2.43 41.2% 2.50 40.0% 2.30 43.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.30 43.5%
X 3.15 31.8% 3.33 30.0% 3.00 33.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3% 3.20 31.3%
2.80 35.7% 3.29 30.4% 2.88 34.7% 3.20 31.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.20 31.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Superbet
no 1.93 51.8% 1.89 52.9% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8% 1.90 52.6%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4% 1.87 53.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.50 66.7% 1.63 61.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.42 70.4% 1.38 72.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.37 73.0% 1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.07 93.5% 1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75 — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.0 — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25 — 1.22 82.0%
Over 1.5 1.38 72.5% 1.34 74.6%
Over 1.75 — 1.45 69.0%
Over 2.0 — 1.58 63.3%
Over 2.25 — 1.95 51.3%
Over 2.5 2.10 47.6% —
Over 3.5 3.85 26.0% —
Over 4.5 7.50 13.3% —
Under 0.5 8.00 12.5% —
Under 1.5 3.00 33.3% —
Under 2.5 1.70 58.8% —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% —
Under 4.5 1.08 92.6% —
Match center
Alaves

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Rayo Vallecano

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Luis Felipe Ilyas Akhomash Diskvalifitsirovannye Unay Lopes CHAMP
Match center
Alaves
W W D L W
17.05 17:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:0 OviedoOviedo
13.05 19:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:0 BarselonaBarselona
09.05 12:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:1 ElcheElche
02.05 16:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 2:4 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
25.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 2:1 MallorcaMallorca
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
10 Points
Rayo Vallecano
W D D W D
17.05 17:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 2:0 VillarrealVillarreal
14.05 17:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1:1 ValenciaValencia
11.05 19:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1:1 GironaGirona
03.05 14:15 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 2:0 GetafeGetafe
26.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 3:3 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAlaves - Rayo Vallecano

Alaves
2 matches total
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Rayo Vallecano: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Rayo Vallecano 0:1 (26.10 20:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 26.10 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

26.10 20:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves
0:1
Rayo Vallecano
26.10 14:15 UTC La Liga
Alaves
0:1
Rayo Vallecano
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Alaves
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Rayo Vallecano
Alaves Team comparison Rayo Vallecano
37 Games 37
11 Wins 11
10 Draws 14
16 Losses 12
43 Scored 39
54 Conceded 43
43 Points 47
94.76 Attacks 95.14
51.38 Dangerous attacks 46.61
0 Big chances 0
11.19 Shots on goal 13.57
3.65 Shots on target 4.76
niya 2.62 0.14 Sendoffs 0.24 Goly Toni Martines 1:0 13' Serkhio Kamelo Pate Siss 1 73' Randi Ntekya Serkhio Kamelo 1:2 90' Nakazaniya Serkhio Kamelo 54' Pate Siss 64' Ankhel Peres 69' Abde Rebbash 79' Nauel Tenalya 87' Luis Espino 90+4'

Alaves Rayo Valekano 37 Games 37 11 Wins 11 10 Draws 14 16 Losses 12 43 Scored 39 54 Conceded 43 Points 47 94.76 Attacks 95.14 51.38 Dangerous attacks 46.61 0 Big chances 0 11.19 Shots on goal 13.57 3.65 Udary v stvor 4.76 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.92 Uglovye 5.7 1.95 Offsaydy 2.05 14.97 Foly 13.49 48.05 % vladeniya myachom 53.51 2.32 Warnings 2.62 0.14 Sendoffs 0.24 Goly Toni Martines 1:0 13' Serkhio Kamelo Pate Siss 1 73' Randi Ntekya Serkhio Kamelo 1:2 90' Nakazaniya Serkhio Kamelo 54' Pate Siss 64' Ankhel Peres 69' Abde Rebbash 79' Nauel Tenalya 87' Luis Espino 90+4'