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La Liga
La Liga Spain
23.04.2025 19:30 UTC Match prediction
23.04.2025 19:30 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Alaves - Real Sociedad

Spain Football
Alaves
Alaves
1 : 0
Finished
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Alaves - Real Sociedad April 23, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alaves.

Line favourite market consensus: Alaves. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.60 / X 2.99 / 2 3.24
  • 1X2 market: Alaves 37.4% / X 32.5% / Real Sociedad 30.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.8%
1 37.4%
X 32.5%
2 30.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.04.2025 19:30 UTC
Match center

Alaves - Real Sociedad

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.24 market consensus · line only
X 2.99 market consensus · line only
1 2.60 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.55 market consensus · line only
12 1.43 market consensus · line only
1X 1.39 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.60 38.5%
X 2.99 33.4%
3.24 30.9%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.55 64.5%
home_away 1.43 69.9%
home_draw 1.39 71.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 1.5 1.57 63.7%
Under 1.5 2.52 39.7%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.75 57.1%
2.17 46.1%
Match center
Alaves
D L W L L
20.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:1 SevillaSevilla
13.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Alaves 0:1 Real MadridReal Madrid
05.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:0 GironaGirona
26.10 14:15 UTC La Liga
Alaves 0:1 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
18.10 19:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 2:3 Valladolid
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.2 Conceded
4 Points
Real Sociedad
D L W L W
20.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 2:2 VillarrealVillarreal
12.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 0:2 MallorcaMallorca
06.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 3:1 Las PalmasLas Palmas
27.10 20:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 0:2 OsasunaOsasuna
19.10 16:30 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 1:0 GironaGirona
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAlaves - Real Sociedad

Alaves
0 matches total
Real Sociedad
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history