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La Liga Spain

06.12.2025 15:15 UTC Match prediction

06.12.2025 15:15 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Alaves - Real Sociedad

Spain Football

Alaves

1 : 0

Finished

Real Sociedad

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Alaves - Real Sociedad December 6, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Sociedad.

Line favourite market consensus: Real Sociedad. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.81 / X 2.96 / 2 2.80
1X2 market: Alaves 33.9% / X 32.1% / Real Sociedad 34.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 62.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 33.9%

X 32.1%

2 34.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%

Over 2.5 37.0%

Under 2.5 63.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 06.12.2025 15:15 UTC

Match center

Alaves - Real Sociedad

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.81 market consensus · line only

X 2.97 market consensus · line only

1 2.81 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.44 market consensus · line only

12 1.39 market consensus · line only

1X 1.44 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.45 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.15 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.75 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.14 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.57 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.51 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.73 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.04 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.86 35.0%
X	3.02 33.1%
	2.89 34.6%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.78 36.0%	2.81 35.6%	2.91 34.4%	2.75 36.4%	2.80 35.7%	2.82 35.5%
X	2.92 34.3%	3.05 32.8%	3.06 32.7%	2.90 34.5%	2.90 34.5%	2.95 33.9%
	2.78 36.0%	2.81 35.6%	2.90 34.5%	2.75 36.4%	2.80 35.7%	2.82 35.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	1.73 57.8%	1.77 56.5%	1.72 58.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.76 56.8%
yes	2.00 50.0%	2.06 48.5%	2.03 49.3%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.03 49.3%	2.15 46.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.42 70.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.45 69.0%	1.47 68.0%
home_away	1.35 74.1%	1.43 69.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.38 72.5%	1.43 69.9%
home_draw	1.42 70.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.45 69.0%	1.47 68.0%