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La Liga Spain

13.03.2026 20:00 UTC Match prediction

13.03.2026 20:00 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Alaves - Villarreal

Spain Football

Alaves

1 : 1

Finished

Villarreal

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Alaves - Villarreal March 13, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Villarreal.

Line favourite market consensus: Villarreal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.45 / X 3.32 / 2 2.22
1X2 market: Alaves 27.8% / X 28.9% / Villarreal 43.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 51.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.2%

1 27.8%

X 28.9%

2 43.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.2%

Over 2.5 48.5%

Under 2.5 51.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 13.03.2026 20:00 UTC

Match center

Alaves - Villarreal

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.22 market consensus · line only

X 3.32 market consensus · line only

1 3.46 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.33 market consensus · line only

12 1.35 market consensus · line only

1X 1.69 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.34 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.09 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.22 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.33 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.00 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.88 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.04 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.74 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	3.50 28.6%
X	3.35 29.9%
	2.25 44.4%

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus
	3.40 29.4%	3.58 27.9%	3.40 29.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%
X	3.30 30.3%	3.44 29.1%	3.25 30.8%	3.35 29.9%	3.35 29.9%	3.35 29.9%
	2.25 44.4%	2.24 44.6%	2.20 45.5%	2.19 45.7%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	William Hill
no	2.09 47.9%	2.02 49.5%	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	2.13 47.0%	2.00 50.0%
yes	1.75 57.1%	1.72 58.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.72 58.1%	1.76 56.8%	1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus	William Hill
draw_away	1.34 74.6%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%
home_away	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.35 74.1%	1.37 73.0%	1.37 73.0%	1.33 75.2%
home_draw	1.72 58.1%	1.62 61.7%	1.72 58.1%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%

Match center

Alaves

L L D D L

08.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 2:3 Valencia

27.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 0:2 Levante

23.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 2:2 Girona

14.02 17:30 UTC La Liga

Alaves 1:1 Sevilla

08.02 13:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 0:2 Getafe

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

1.0 Scored

2.0 Conceded

2 Points

Villarreal

W L W W L

08.03 13:00 UTC La Liga

Villarreal 2:1 Elche

28.02 15:15 UTC La Liga

Villarreal 1:4 Barselona

22.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Villarreal 2:1 Valencia

18.02 19:00 UTC La Liga

Villarreal 1:0 Levante

14.02 15:15 UTC La Liga

Villarreal 1:2 Getafe

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.6 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAlaves - Villarreal

Alaves

1 matches total

Villarreal

Alaves: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Villarreal: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Villarreal 1:3 (10.01 15:15 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 10.01 15:15 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

10.01 15:15 UTC

La Liga

Alaves

1:3

Villarreal