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La Liga
La Liga Spain
06.12.2025 20:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Athletic Club - Atletico Madrid

Spain Football
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
1 : 0
Finished
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Athletic Club - Atletico Madrid December 6, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atletico Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Atletico Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.87 / X 3.17 / 2 2.59
  • 1X2 market: Athletic Club 33.2% / X 30.0% / Atletico Madrid 36.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 56.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 33.2%
X 30.0%
2 36.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 43.6%
Under 2.5 56.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 06.12.2025 20:00 UTC
Match center

Athletic Club - Atletico Madrid

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.59 market consensus · line only
X 3.18 market consensus · line only
1 2.87 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.42 market consensus · line only
12 1.35 market consensus · line only
1X 1.51 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.43 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.15 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.50 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.28 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.19 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.69 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.90 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.86 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.93 34.1%
X 3.23 31.0%
2.65 37.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.84 35.2% 2.83 35.3% 2.98 33.6% 2.80 35.7% 2.80 35.7% 2.95 33.9%
X 3.15 31.8% 3.25 30.8% 3.26 30.7% 3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.20 31.3%
2.58 38.8% 2.61 38.3% 2.68 37.3% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.67 37.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.89 52.9% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5% 1.97 50.8%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.82 55.0% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.42 70.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.39 71.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1% 1.38 72.5%
home_draw 1.48 67.6% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.52 65.8%
Match center
Athletic Club
L W L W L
03.12 18:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 0:3 Real MadridReal Madrid
29.11 17:30 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 2:0 LevanteLevante
22.11 15:15 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 0:4 BarselonaBarselona
09.11 13:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 1:0 OviedoOviedo
01.11 17:30 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 2:3 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
6 Points
Atletico Madrid
L W W W W
02.12 20:00 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 1:3 BarselonaBarselona
29.11 20:00 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 2:0 OviedoOviedo
23.11 17:30 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 1:0 GetafeGetafe
08.11 17:30 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 3:1 LevanteLevante
01.11 15:15 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 3:0 SevillaSevilla
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
12 Points