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La Liga
La Liga Spain
21.04.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
21.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Athletic Club - Osasuna

Spain Football
Stadium San-Mames
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
1 : 0
Finished
Osasuna
Osasuna
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Athletic Club — 52%

1 · Athletic Club51.6%
X · draw26.2%
2 · Osasuna22.2%

Model estimate: win Athletic Club 51.6%, draw 26.2%, win Osasuna 22.2%. Model favourite — Athletic Club.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Athletic Club - Osasuna April 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Athletic Club.

Strongest: Athletic Club - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.86 / X 3.47 / 2 4.46
  • 1X2 market: Athletic Club 51.2% / X 27.4% / Osasuna 21.4%
  • Glicko: Athletic Club 51.6% / X 26.2% / Osasuna 22.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 44.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 51.2%
X 27.4%
2 21.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 48.4%
Under 2.5 51.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 5/7
Confidence 56.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 21.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Stadium San-Mames (Bilbao)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Athletic Club 52%
💹 Market Athletic Club 5116%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Athletic Club - Osasuna

Athletic Club: Win 1.80 Athletic Club: Draw 3.40 Osasuna Win: 4.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Athletic Club bolshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Athletic Club menshe 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy tota…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 3
Statistics 26
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
10' 10' Yellow Card | Mikel Jauregizar Athletic Club
16' 16' Normal Goal | Gorka Guruzeta Athletic Club
48' 48' Yellow Card | Aimar Oroz Osasuna
Metric Athletic Club Osasuna SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.54 1.21 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 2 final
Shots off target 3 3 final
Shots on target 2 3 final
Udary vsego 7 8 final
Fouls soversheno 12 11 final
Red cards 1 0 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 2 final
Athletic Club #1 U. Simon, #2 Gorosabel, #5 Y. Alvarez, #7 Álex Berenguer, #9 I. Williams, #10 N. Williams, #11 Gorka Guruzeta, #14 A. Laporte, #16 Ruíz de Galarreta, #17 Yuri, #18 Mikel Jauregizar
Osasuna #1 S. Herrera, #5 J. Herrando, #6 L. Torro, #7 J. Moncayola, #10 A. Oroz, #14 R. Garcia, #17 A. Budimir, #19 V. Rosier, #20 J. Galan, #21 V. Munoz, #22 F. Boyomo
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Boiro Athletic Club football.player.assists 0
A. Boiro Athletic Club Seyvy 0
A. Boiro Athletic Club football.player.minutes_played 9
A. Boiro Athletic Club Klyuchevye pasy 1
A. Boiro Athletic Club Reyting (staryy) 6.6
A. Boiro Athletic Club Otbory vsego 1
A. Laporte Athletic Club football.player.assists 0
A. Laporte Athletic Club Dribling popytki 3
A. Laporte Athletic Club Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
A. Laporte Athletic Club Fouls soversheno 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Athletic Club 52.7% 51.6% market and model agree
Draw 26.9% 26.2% draw risk
Osasuna 20.4% 22.2%
xG - 1.50 : 0.88
Total 2.5 Over 44.1% - Under 55.9%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 51.6% / 26.2% / 22.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,481 / 1,513 Athletic Club / Osasuna
RD 73 / 72 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.46 market consensus · no value · model 22.2%
X 3.47 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.86 market consensus · no value · model 51.6%
Double chance
X2 1.93 market consensus · no value · model 48.4%
12 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 73.8%
1X 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 77.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.98 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.52 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.24 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.60 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.97 market consensus · no value · model 44.1%
Under 2.5 1.85 market consensus · weak value +3.5% · model 55.9%
Both teams to score
No 1.93 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.88 53.2%
X 3.45 29.0% 3.60 27.8% 3.60 27.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6%
4.20 23.8% 4.50 22.2% 4.72 21.2% 4.33 23.1% 4.20 23.8% 4.80 20.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.89 52.9%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.81 55.3% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.91 52.4%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.23 81.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.17 85.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 — — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5 1.33 75.2% — 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75 — — 1.35 74.1%
Over 2.25 — 1.83 54.6% —
Over 2.5 1.95 51.3% — —
Over 3.5 3.45 29.0% — —
Over 4.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.30 30.3% — —
Under 2.25 — 2.05 48.8% —
Under 2.5 1.83 54.6% — —
Under 3.5 1.30 76.9% — —
Under 4.5 1.10 90.9% — —
Match center
Athletic Club
Founded 1898
Osasuna
Founded 1920
Match center
Athletic Club
L L W L L
12.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 1:2 VillarrealVillarreal
05.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 0:2 GetafeGetafe
22.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 2:1 Real BetisReal Betis
14.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 0:3 GironaGirona
07.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 0:1 BarselonaBarselona
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
3 Points
Osasuna
D D W L D
12.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Osasuna 1:1 Real BetisReal Betis
05.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Osasuna 2:2 AlavesAlaves
21.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Osasuna 1:0 GironaGirona
15.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Osasuna 1:3 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
07.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Osasuna 2:2 MallorcaMallorca
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAthletic Club - Osasuna

Athletic Club
1 matches total
Osasuna
Athletic Club: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Osasuna: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 03.01 15:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (03.01 15:15 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

03.01 15:15 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club
1:1
Osasuna
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.