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La Liga
La Liga Spain
12.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
12.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Athletic Club - Villarreal

Spain Football
Stadium San-Mames
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
1 : 2
Finished
Villarreal
Villarreal
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Athletic Club — 42%

1 · Athletic Club42.0%
X · draw26.7%
2 · Villarreal31.3%

Model estimate: win Athletic Club 42.0%, draw 26.7%, win Villarreal 31.3%. Model favourite — Athletic Club.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Athletic Club - Villarreal April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Athletic Club.

Strongest: Athletic Club - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.08 / X 3.48 / 2 3.57
  • 1X2 market: Athletic Club 45.9% / X 27.4% / Villarreal 26.7%
  • Glicko: Athletic Club 42.0% / X 26.7% / Villarreal 31.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 48.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 45.9%
X 27.4%
2 26.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 49.9%
Under 2.5 50.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 44.3%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 12.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium San-Mames (Bilbao)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Athletic Club 42%
💹 Market Athletic Club 4588%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Athletic Club - Villarreal

Athletic Club: Win 2.05 Athletic Club: Draw 3.60 Villarreal Win: 3.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Athletic Club bolshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Athletic Club menshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy t…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
19' 19' Yellow Card | P. Navarro Villarreal
26' 26' Normal Goal Villarreal
45' 45' Normal Goal | A. Gonzalez Villarreal
46' 46' Substitution 1 | P. Navarro | assist/sub out: R. Marin Villarreal
46' 46' Substitution 3 | I. Lekue | assist/sub out: A. Gorosabel Athletic Club
66' 66' Substitution 6 | O. Sancet | assist/sub out: A. Berenguer Athletic Club
66' 66' Substitution 7 | N. Williams | assist/sub out: R. Navarro Athletic Club
66' 66' Substitution 8 | I. Ruiz de Galarreta | assist/sub out: A. Rego Athletic Club
Metric Athletic Club Villarreal SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.2 1.29 final
Zablokirovannye udary 8 3 final
Shots off target 4 3 final
Shots on target 6 6 final
Udary vsego 18 12 final
Fouls soversheno 15 8 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final
Offsides 1 3 final
Athletic Club #1 U. Simon, #3 Dani Vivian, #8 Oihan Sancet, #9 I. Williams, #10 N. Williams, #11 Gorka Guruzeta, #14 A. Laporte, #15 Lekue, #16 Ruíz de Galarreta, #17 Yuri, #18 Mikel Jauregizar
Villarreal #1 LuG­z JGєnior, #6 Pau Navarro, #7 Gerard Moreno, #11 Alfon GonzGЎlez, #12 R. Veiga, #14 Santi ComesaG±a, #15 S. MouriG±o, #17 T. Buchanan, #18 P. Gueye, #21 T. Oluwaseyi, #23 Sergi Cardona
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Freeman Villarreal Seyvy 0
Alberto Moleiro Villarreal football.player.assists 0
Alberto Moleiro Villarreal Edinoborstva vsego 1
Alberto Moleiro Villarreal Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
Alberto Moleiro Villarreal Seyvy 0
Alberto Moleiro Villarreal football.player.minutes_played 12
Alberto Moleiro Villarreal Klyuchevye pasy 8
Alberto Moleiro Villarreal Reyting (staryy) 6.5
Alberto Moleiro Villarreal Shots on target 1
Alberto Moleiro Villarreal Otbory vsego 7
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Athletic Club 46.1% 42.0% market and model agree
Draw 27.4% 26.7% draw risk
Villarreal 26.5% 31.3%
xG - 1.37 : 1.14
Total 2.5 Over 48.3% - Under 51.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 42.0% / 26.7% / 31.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,486 / 1,620 Athletic Club / Villarreal
RD 73 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.57 market consensus · no value · model 31.3%
X 3.48 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.08 market consensus · no value · model 42.0%
Double chance
X2 1.75 market consensus · no value · model 58.0%
12 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 73.3%
1X 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 68.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.37 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.43 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.65 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.92 market consensus · no value · model 48.3%
Under 2.5 1.91 market consensus · no value · model 51.7%
Both teams to score
No 2.04 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.02 49.5% 2.06 48.5% 2.14 46.7% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.10 47.6%
X 3.45 29.0% 3.55 28.2% 3.58 27.9% 3.60 27.8% 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4%
3.55 28.2% 3.65 27.4% 3.71 27.0% 3.50 28.6% 3.55 28.2% 3.60 27.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.05 48.8% 2.11 47.4% 2.02 49.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.08 48.1%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.75 57.1% 1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 — — 1.16 86.2%
Over 1.5 1.30 76.9% — 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75 — — 1.34 74.6%
Over 2.5 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% —
Over 3.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Over 4.5 6.25 16.0% — —
Under 0.5 9.00 11.1% — —
Under 1.5 3.45 29.0% — —
Under 2.5 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% —
Under 3.5 1.33 75.2% — —
Under 4.5 1.11 90.1% — —
Match center
Athletic Club
Founded 1898
Villarreal
Founded 1923
Match center
Athletic Club
JA Jesús Areso Inactive
BP BeG±at Prados Knee Injury
Villarreal
TP T. Partey Muscle Injury
JF J. Foyth Achilles Tendon Injury
Athletic Club Founded: 1898
Villarreal Founded: 1923
Match center
Athletic Club
L W L L D
05.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 0:2 GetafeGetafe
22.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 2:1 Real BetisReal Betis
14.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 0:3 GironaGirona
07.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 0:1 BarselonaBarselona
28.02 13:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 1:1 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
4 Points
Villarreal
L W D W L
06.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 0:1 GironaGirona
20.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 3:1 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
13.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 1:1 AlavesAlaves
08.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 2:1 ElcheElche
28.02 15:15 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 1:4 BarselonaBarselona
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAthletic Club - Villarreal

Athletic Club
2 matches total
Villarreal
Athletic Club: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Villarreal: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Villarreal 0:1 (27.09 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 27.09 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (06.04 19:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

27.09 19:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club
0:1
Villarreal
06.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club
0:0
Villarreal
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.