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La Liga Spain

25.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

25.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Atletico Madrid - Athletic Club

Spain Football

Stadium Riyad Eyr Metropolitano

Atletico Madrid

3 : 2

Finished

Athletic Club

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Atletico Madrid — 47%

1 · Atletico Madrid46.9%

X · draw25.8%

2 · Athletic Club27.3%

Model estimate: win Atletico Madrid 46.9%, draw 25.8%, win Athletic Club 27.3%. Model favourite — Atletico Madrid.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atletico Madrid - Athletic Club April 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atletico Madrid.

Strongest: Atletico Madrid - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.17 / X 3.57 / 2 3.14
1X2 market: Atletico Madrid 43.5% / X 26.5% / Athletic Club 30.1%
Glicko: Atletico Madrid 46.9% / X 25.8% / Athletic Club 27.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 80.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%

1 43.5%

X 26.4%

2 30.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 50.7%

Under 2.5 49.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 44.6%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 25.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Stadium Riyad Eyr Metropolitano (Madrid)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Atletico Madrid 47%

💹 Market Atletico Madrid 4345%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Atletico Madrid - Athletic Club

Atletico Madrid: Win 2.05 Atletico Madrid: Draw 3.80 Athletic Club Win: 3.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Atletico Madrid bolshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Atletico Madrid menshe 1.5: 1.73 Indiv…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:2

Events 15

Statistics 22

Lineups 44

min Event Player Team

23' 23' Normal Goal | A. Paredes | assist/sub out: I. Ruiz de Galarreta Athletic Club

49' 49' Normal Goal | Antoine Griezmann Atletico Madrid

54' 54' Normal Goal | A. Sorloth | assist/sub out: A. Baena A. Polesovshchikov Atletico Madrid

58' 58' Substitution 3 | P. Barrios | assist/sub out: J. Cardoso Atletico Madrid

63' 63' Substitution 7 | Antoine Griezmann | assist/sub out: N. Gonzalez Atletico Madrid

63' 63' Substitution 8 | M. Llorente | assist/sub out: Nahuel Molina M. Hermansen Atletico Madrid

63' 63' Substitution 1 | U. Gomez | assist/sub out: O. Sancet Athletic Club

63' 63' Substitution 2 | Y. Berchiche | assist/sub out: A. Boiro Athletic Club

Metric Atletico Madrid Athletic Club SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.09 0.8 final

Zablokirovannye udary 0 2 final

Shots off target 2 6 final

Shots on target 4 4 final

Udary vsego 6 12 final

Fouls soversheno 8 12 final

Offsides 2 1 final

Ball possession, % 54 46 final

Atletico Madrid #3 Matteo Ruggeri, #6 Koke, #7 Antoine Griezmann, #8 Pablo Barrios, #9 A. Sorloth, #10 A. Baena, #13 J. Oblak, #14 M. Llorente, #15 Clément Lenglet, #18 M. Pubill, #20 G. Simeone

Athletic Club #1 U. Simon, #2 Gorosabel, #3 Dani Vivian, #4 Aitor Paredes, #9 I. Williams, #10 N. Williams, #11 Gorka Guruzeta, #16 Ruíz de Galarreta, #17 Yuri, #20 Unai Gómez, #30 Alejandro Rego

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Boiro Athletic Club football.player.assists 0

A. Boiro Athletic Club Dribling popytki 4

A. Boiro Athletic Club Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Boiro Athletic Club Edinoborstva vyigrano 4

A. Boiro Athletic Club Fouls soversheno 1

A. Boiro Athletic Club Seyvy 0

A. Boiro Athletic Club football.player.minutes_played 27

A. Boiro Athletic Club Klyuchevye pasy 25

A. Boiro Athletic Club Reyting (staryy) 6.6

A. Boiro Athletic Club Bloki 3

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Atletico Madrid 42.5% 46.9% market and model agree

Draw 26.7% 25.8% draw risk

Athletic Club 30.8% 27.3%

xG - 1.50 : 1.08

Total 2.5 Over 80.5% - Under 19.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 46.9% / 25.8% / 27.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,594 / 1,490 Atletico Madrid / Athletic Club

RD 75 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.14 market consensus · no value · model 27.3%

X 3.57 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.17 market consensus · no value · model 46.9%

Double chance

X2 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 53.1%

12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 74.2%

1X 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 72.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.72 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.33 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.06 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.13 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.88 market consensus · weak value +51.4% · model 80.5%

Under 2.5 1.93 market consensus · no value · model 19.5%

Both teams to score

No 2.05 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.10 47.6%	2.39 41.8%	2.20 45.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.12 47.2%	2.15 46.5%
X	3.55 28.2%	3.74 26.7%	3.40 29.4%	3.80 26.3%	3.70 27.0%	3.70 27.0%
	3.20 31.3%	3.04 32.9%	3.00 33.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.25 30.8%	3.30 30.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.10 47.6%	2.02 49.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	1.99 50.3%	2.08 48.1%
yes	1.70 58.8%	1.73 57.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.72 58.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.65 60.6%	1.73 57.8%	1.68 59.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.70 58.8%	1.65 60.6%	1.62 61.7%	1.73 57.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.67 59.9%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.32 75.8%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.33 75.2%	1.44 69.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.37 73.0%	1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25	—	1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5	1.25 80.0%	1.26 79.4%
Over 1.75	—	1.32 75.8%
Over 2.0	—	1.41 70.9%
Over 2.25	—	1.64 61.0%
Over 2.5	1.85 54.1%	—
Over 3.5	3.10 32.3%	—
Over 4.5	6.00 16.7%	—
Under 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—
Under 1.5	3.70 27.0%	—
Under 2.5	1.93 51.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.35 74.1%	—
Under 4.5	1.12 89.3%	—

Match center

Atletico Madrid

Founded 1903

Athletic Club

Founded 1898

Match center

Atletico Madrid

L L L L W

22.04 17:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 2:3 Elche

11.04 19:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 1:2 Sevilla

04.04 19:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 1:2 Barselona

22.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 2:3 Real Madrid

14.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 1:0 Getafe

1 Wins

0 Draws

4 Losses

1.4 Scored

2.0 Conceded

3 Points

Athletic Club

W L L W L

21.04 17:00 UTC La Liga

Athletic Club 1:0 Osasuna

12.04 19:00 UTC La Liga

Athletic Club 1:2 Villarreal

05.04 12:00 UTC La Liga

Athletic Club 0:2 Getafe

22.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Athletic Club 2:1 Real Betis

14.03 13:00 UTC La Liga

Athletic Club 0:3 Girona

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.6 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtletico Madrid - Athletic Club

Atletico Madrid

1 matches total

Athletic Club

Atletico Madrid: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Athletic Club: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Athletic Club 0:1 (06.12 20:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 06.12 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

06.12 20:00 UTC

La Liga

Atletiko Madrid

0:1

Athletic Club

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.