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La Liga Spain

04.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

04.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Atletico Madrid - Barcelona

Spain Football

Stadium Riyad Eyr Metropolitano

Atletico Madrid

1 : 2

Finished

Barcelona

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Barcelona — 48%

1 · Atletico Madrid29.3%

X · draw23.2%

2 · Barcelona47.6%

Model estimate: win Atletico Madrid 29.3%, draw 23.2%, win Barcelona 47.6%. Model favourite — Barcelona.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atletico Madrid - Barcelona April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Barcelona.

Strongest: Barcelona - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.01 / X 4.00 / 2 2.15
1X2 market: Atletico Madrid 31.7% / X 23.9% / Barcelona 44.4%
Glicko: Atletico Madrid 29.3% / X 23.2% / Barcelona 47.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 41.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7%

1 31.7%

X 23.9%

2 44.4%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%

Over 2.5 68.5%

Under 2.5 31.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 46.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 04.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Stadium Riyad Eyr Metropolitano (Madrid)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Barcelona 48%

💹 Market Barcelona 4444%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Atletico Madrid - Barcelona

Atletico Madrid: Win 3.10 Atletico Madrid: Draw 3.90 Barcelona Win: 2.15 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Atletico Madrid bolshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Atletico Madrid menshe 1.5: 1.80 Individua…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:2

Events 24

Statistics 26

Lineups 45

min Event Player Team

22' 22' Yellow Card | N. Gonzalez Atletico Madrid

39' 39' Normal Goal | G. Simeone | assist/sub out: C. Lenglet Atletico Madrid

40' 40' Substitution 1 | R. Araujo | assist/sub out: M. Bernal Barcelona

42' 42' Normal Goal | M. Rashford A. Hickey Barcelona

45' 45' Yellow Card | Fermín Barcelona

45' 45' Yellow Card | N. Molina K. Kallaste Atletico Madrid

45' 45' Yellow Card | Koke Mirra Andreeva Atletico Madrid

45+6' 45+6' Card upgrade | N. Gonzalez Atletico Madrid

Metric Atletico Madrid Barcelona SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.92 2.52 final

Zablokirovannye udary 0 7 final

Shots off target 4 7 final

Shots on target 2 8 final

Udary vsego 6 22 final

Fouls soversheno 15 11 final

Red cards 1 1 final

Zheltye kartochki 6 2 final

Atletico Madrid #2 João Cancelo, #4 R. Araújo, #5 P. Cubarsi, #8 Pedri, #10 Lamine Yamal, #13 J. Garcia, #14 M. Rashford, #16 Fermín, #18 G. Martin, #20 D. Olmo, #24 E. Garcia

Barcelona #1 J. Musso, #6 Koke, #7 Antoine Griezmann, #10 A. Baena, #11 T. Almada, #15 Clément Lenglet, #16 N. Molina, #20 G. Simeone, #21 O. Vargas, #23 N. Gonzalez, #24 R. Le Normand

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Baena Barcelona football.player.assists 0

A. Baena Barcelona Dribling popytki 3

A. Baena Barcelona Dribling uspeshno 1

A. Baena Barcelona Edinoborstva vyigrano 7

A. Baena Barcelona Fouls soversheno 1

A. Baena Barcelona Conceded golov 1

A. Baena Barcelona Seyvy 0

A. Baena Barcelona football.player.minutes_played 61

A. Baena Barcelona Tochnost pasov % 1

A. Baena Barcelona Klyuchevye pasy 10

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Atletico Madrid 31.8% 29.3%

Draw 23.5% 23.2% draw risk

Barcelona 44.7% 47.6% market and model agree

xG - 1.35 : 1.78

Total 2.5 Over 41.0% - Under 59.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 29.3% / 23.2% / 47.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,630 / 1,775 Atletico Madrid / Barcelona

RD 78 / 85 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.15 market consensus · no value · model 47.6%

X 4.00 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.01 market consensus · no value · model 29.3%

Double chance

X2 1.39 market consensus · no value · model 70.7%

12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 76.8%

1X 1.71 market consensus · no value · model 52.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.41 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.17 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.10 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.94 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 41.0%

Under 2.5 2.98 market consensus · weak value +75.7% · model 59.0%

Both teams to score

No 3.07 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.35 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.94 34.0%	3.15 31.8%	3.01 33.2%	2.90 34.5%	3.10 32.3%	3.00 33.3%
X	3.90 25.6%	4.00 25.0%	4.23 23.6%	3.90 25.6%	3.90 25.6%	4.25 23.5%
	2.12 47.2%	2.11 47.4%	2.24 44.6%	2.10 47.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.18 45.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	3.00 33.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.08 32.5%	2.90 34.5%	3.00 33.3%	2.95 33.9%	3.10 32.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%
yes	1.35 74.1%	1.35 74.1%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.37 73.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.40 71.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.42 70.4%	1.33 75.2%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.23 81.3%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.67 59.9%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.67 59.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5	1.11 90.1%	—	—
Over 2.5	1.38 72.5%	—	—
Over 3.0	—	1.87 53.5%	—
Over 3.25	—	1.81 55.3%	—
Over 3.5	1.93 51.8%	1.96 51.0%	—
Over 4.5	3.10 32.3%	—	—
Over 5.5	5.50 18.2%	—	—
Under 1.5	6.25 16.0%	—	—
Under 2.5	3.00 33.3%	—	—
Under 3.0	—	2.03 49.3%	—
Under 3.25	—	2.09 47.9%	—
Under 3.5	1.85 54.1%	1.94 51.6%	—
Under 4.5	1.36 73.5%	—	—
Under 5.5	1.14 87.7%	—	—

Match center

Atletico Madrid

Founded 1903

Barcelona

Founded 1899

Match center

Atletico Madrid

JO J. Oblak Muscle Injury

ML Marcos Llorente Yellow Cards

Barcelona

FD F. de Jong Hamstring Injury

JK J. Koundé Hamstring Injury

Atletico Madrid Founded: 1903

Barcelona Founded: 1899

Match center

Atletico Madrid

L W W W W

22.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 2:3 Real Madrid

14.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 1:0 Getafe

07.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 3:2 Real Sociedad

28.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 1:0 Oviedo

21.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 4:2 Espanyol

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

12 Points

Barcelona

W W W W W

22.03 13:00 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 1:0 Rayo Vallecano

15.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 5:2 Sevilla

07.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 1:0 Athletic Club

28.02 15:15 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 4:1 Villarreal

22.02 15:15 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 3:0 Levante

5 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

2.8 Scored

0.6 Conceded

15 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtletico Madrid - Barcelona

Atletico Madrid

1 matches total

Barcelona

Atletico Madrid: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Barcelona: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Barselona 1:3 (02.12 20:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 02.12 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

02.12 20:00 UTC

La Liga

Atletiko Madrid

1:3

Barselona

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.