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La Liga
La Liga Spain
37 round 17.05.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
17.05.2026 17:00 UTC 37 round
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Atletico Madrid - Girona

Spain Football
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
1 : 0
Finished
Girona
Girona

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atletico Madrid - Girona May 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atletico Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Atletico Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.74 / X 3.99 / 2 4.46
  • 1X2 market: Atletico Madrid 54.8% / X 23.9% / Girona 21.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 59.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 54.8%
X 23.9%
2 21.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 59.0%
Under 2.5 41.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: Atletico Madrid

Main outcome Atletico Madrid
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 53.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Stadium Sivitas Metropolitano (Madrid, Spain), 64 396 zriteley (91% pri vmestimosti 70 460)
Referee Alekhandro Munis Ruis
Start 17.05.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Atletico Madrid - Girona

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Atletiko M - Zhirona, 17 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Spain po futbolu (La Liga) 2025-2026, 37 round. Atletiko M - Zhirona, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 11
Statistics 22
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
21' 21' Normal Goal | A. Lookman | assist/sub out: A. Griezmann A. Lookman Atletico Madrid
23' 23' Yellow Card | R. Le Normand R. Le Normand Atletico Madrid
46' 46' Substitution 3 | G. Simeone | assist/sub out: T. Almada G. Simeone Atletico Madrid
56' 56' Substitution 2 | A. Witsel | assist/sub out: F. Beltran A. Witsel Girona
56' 56' Substitution 3 | A. Witsel | assist/sub out: F. Beltran A. Witsel Girona
61' 61' Substitution 4 | A. Baena | assist/sub out: A. Sorloth A. Baena Atletico Madrid
61' 61' Substitution 5 | O. Vargas | assist/sub out: J. Morcillo O. Vargas Atletico Madrid
63' 63' Substitution 6 | A. Lookman | assist/sub out: C. Lenglet A. Lookman Atletico Madrid
Metric Atletico Madrid Girona SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.97 2.17 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 7 final
Shots off target 10 7 final
Shots on target 4 11 final
Udary vsego 17 25 final
Fouls soversheno 7 9 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 0 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Atletico Madrid #3 Matteo Ruggeri, #13 J. Oblak, #21 O. Vargas, #22 A. Lookman, #6 Koke, #7 Antoine Griezmann, #17 D. Hancko, #10 A. Baena, #20 G. Simeone, #24 R. Le Normand, #18 M. Pubill
Girona #3 J. Roca, #13 P. Gazzaniga, #15 V. Tsygankov, #23 I. Martin, #24 A. Moreno, #12 Vitor Reis, #18 A. Ounahi, #20 A. Witsel, #16 A. Frances, #21 B. Gil, #4 A. Martinez
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Frances Girona football.player.assists 0
A. Frances Girona football.player.minutes_played 84
A. Martinez Girona football.player.assists 0
A. Martinez Girona football.player.minutes_played 77
A. Moreno Girona football.player.assists 0
A. Moreno Girona football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Ounahi Girona football.player.assists 0
A. Ounahi Girona football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Witsel Girona football.player.assists 0
A. Witsel Girona football.player.minutes_played 56
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 5.60 Fonbet · line only
1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
2 4.46 market consensus · line only
Double chance
12 1.13 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.02 Fonbet · line only
X2 2.08 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -1 2.25 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.65 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
2 -0.5 2.13 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 4.70 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.14 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.20 Fonbet · line only
Yes 3.95 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.70 58.8% 1.81 55.3% 1.70 58.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.70 58.8%
X 3.90 25.6% 4.11 24.3% 3.80 26.3% 3.90 25.6% 4.15 24.1% 4.00 25.0%
4.40 22.7% 4.57 21.9% 4.40 22.7% 4.20 23.8% 4.40 22.7% 4.33 23.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.25 44.4% 2.28 43.9% 2.30 43.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.28 43.9%
yes 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.00 50.0%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.25 80.0% 1.17 85.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 1.20 83.3% 1.16 86.2%
Over 1.75 — 1.22 82.0%
Over 2.5 1.62 61.7% —
Over 3.5 2.55 39.2% —
Over 4.5 4.33 23.1% —
Over 5.5 8.00 12.5% —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 1.5 4.33 23.1% —
Under 2.5 2.25 44.4% —
Under 3.5 1.50 66.7% —
Under 4.5 1.20 83.3% —
Under 5.5 1.07 93.5% —
Match center
Atletico Madrid

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Girona

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Nikolas Gonsales Dzhonni Kardozo Nauel Molina Rodrigo Mendosa Khulian Alvares Travmirovannye Porto Khuan Karlos Vladislav Vanat Mark-Andre Markos Lorente CHAMP
Match center
Atletico Madrid
W L W W L
12.05 19:30 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 2:1 OsasunaOsasuna
09.05 16:30 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 0:1 SeltaSelta
02.05 14:15 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 2:0 ValenciaValencia
25.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 3:2 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
22.04 17:00 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 2:3 ElcheElche
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
9 Points
Girona
D D L L L
14.05 18:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:1 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
11.05 19:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:1 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
01.05 19:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 0:1 MallorcaMallorca
25.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:2 ValenciaValencia
21.04 19:30 UTC La Liga
Girona 2:3 Real BetisReal Betis
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.6 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtletico Madrid - Girona

Atletico Madrid
2 matches total
Girona
Atletico Madrid: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Girona: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Atletiko Madrid 4:0 (25.05 12:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (4:0, 25.05 12:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

21.12 13:00 UTC La Liga
Atletiko Madrid
3:0
Girona
25.05 12:00 UTC La Liga
Atletiko Madrid
4:0
Girona
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Atletico Madrid
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Girona
Atletico Madrid Team comparison Girona
36 Games 36
20 Wins 9
6 Draws 13
10 Losses 14
60 Scored 38
39 Conceded 53
66 Points 40
114.64 Attacks 93.34
56.12 Dangerous attacks 47.89
0 Big chances 0
13 Shots on goal 10.58
5.19 Shots on target 3.81
leniya 0.19 Goly Ademola Lukman Antuan Grizmann 1:0 21' Nakazaniya Roben Le Norman 23' Khavi Morsilo 85'

Atletiko M Zhirona 36 Games 36 20 Wins 9 6 Draws 13 10 Losses 14 60 Scored 38 39 Conceded 53 66 Points 40 114.64 Attacks 93.34 56.12 Dangerous attacks 47.89 0 Big chances 0 13 Shots on goal 10.58 5.19 Udary v stvor 3.81 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 6.31 Uglovye 4.17 2.08 Offsaydy 2 11.28 Foly 10.47 53.58 % vladeniya myachom 50.5 2.06 Warnings 2.06 0.14 Sendoffs 0.19 Goly Ademola Lukman Antuan Grizmann 1:0 21' Nakazaniya Roben Le Norman 23' Khavi Morsilo 85'