La Liga
La Liga Spain
15.09.2024 19:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Атлетико Мадрид - Valencia

Spain Futbol
Атлетико Мадрид
Атлетико Мадрид
3 : 0
Finished
Valencia
Valencia

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Атлетико Мадрид - Valencia 15 сентября 2024

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Атлетико Мадрид.

Line favourite market consensus: Атлетико Мадрид. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.32 / X 5.46 / 2 10.96
  • 1X2 market: Атлетико Мадрид 73.4% / X 17.8% / Valencia 8.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.2%
1 73.4%
X 17.7%
2 8.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.2%
Over 2.5 53.0%
Under 2.5 47.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.09.2024 19:00 UTC
Match center

Атлетико Мадрид - Valencia

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 5.46 market consensus · line only
1 1.32 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.71 market consensus · line only
12 1.19 market consensus · line only
1X 1.07 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.06 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 1.32 75.8%
Х 5.46 18.3%
П2 10.96 9.1%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 3.71 27.0%
home_away 1.19 84.0%
home_draw 1.07 93.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
ТБ 2.5 1.83 54.6%
ТМ 2.5 2.06 48.5%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 1.10 90.9%
П2 8.74 11.4%