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La Liga Spain

22.04.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction

22.04.2026 19:30 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Barcelona - Celta Vigo

Spain Football

Stadium Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys

Barcelona

1 : 0

Finished

Celta Vigo

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Barcelona — 73%

1 · Barcelona ✓ Pick73.4%

market76%

X · draw16.2%

market14%

2 · Celta Vigo10.4%

market9%

Model estimate: win Barcelona 73.4%, draw 16.2%, win Celta Vigo 10.4%. Model favourite — Barcelona.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Barcelona - Celta Vigo April 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Barcelona.

Strongest: Barcelona - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.25 / X 6.65 / 2 10.27
1X2 market: Barcelona 76.3% / X 14.4% / Celta Vigo 9.3%
Glicko: Barcelona 73.4% / X 16.2% / Celta Vigo 10.4%
Total 2.5: over probability 42.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%

1 ✓ Pick 76.4%

X 14.4%

2 9.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%

Over 2.5 73.3%

Under 2.5 26.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 18/20

Confidence 78.7%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 22.04.2026 19:30 UTC

Stadium Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys (Barcelona)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Barcelona 73%

💹 Market Barcelona 7627%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Barcelona - Celta Vigo

Barcelona: Win 1.22 Barcelona: Draw 7.00 Celta Vigo Win: 10.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Barcelona bolshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Barcelona menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Celt…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:0

Events 14

Statistics 24

Lineups 44

min Event Player Team

23' 23' Substitution 1 | J. Cancelo | assist/sub out: Alejandro Balde Nico González Barcelona

40' 40' Penalty | Lamine Yamal Barcelona

45+9' 45+9' Substitution 2 | Lamine Yamal | assist/sub out: R. Bardghji Barcelona

46' 46' Substitution 3 | Pablo Gavi | assist/sub out: Fermín Barcelona

56' 56' Goal cancelled | F. Torres Ryan Yates Barcelona

59' 59' Yellow Card | Yoel Lago Celta Vigo

63' 63' Substitution 2 | Yoel Lago | assist/sub out: Óscar Mingueza Celta Vigo

63' 63' Substitution 3 | Yoel Lago | assist/sub out: Óscar Mingueza Celta Vigo

Metric Barcelona Celta Vigo SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.23 1.41 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 2 final

Shots off target 5 1 final

Shots on target 3 3 final

Udary vsego 10 6 final

Fouls soversheno 13 10 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 1 final

Offsides 3 0 final

Barcelona #2 João Cancelo, #5 P. Cubarsi, #6 Gavi, #7 F. Torres, #8 Pedri, #10 Lamine Yamal, #13 J. Garcia, #18 G. Martin, #20 D. Olmo, #23 J. Kounde, #24 E. Garcia

Celta Vigo #5 Sergio Carreira, #6 I. Moriba, #8 Fer López, #9 Ferran Jutglà, #13 I. Radu, #17 Javi Rueda, #18 Pablo Durán, #20 Marcos Alonso, #23 Hugo Álvarez, #29 Yoel Lago, #32 Javi Rodríguez

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Balde Barcelona football.player.assists 0

A. Balde Barcelona Dribling popytki 3

A. Balde Barcelona Dribling uspeshno 3

A. Balde Barcelona Edinoborstva vyigrano 5

A. Balde Barcelona Fouls na igroke 1

A. Balde Barcelona Seyvy 0

A. Balde Barcelona football.player.minutes_played 67

A. Balde Barcelona Klyuchevye pasy 51

A. Balde Barcelona Reyting (staryy) 7

A. Balde Barcelona Bloki 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Barcelona 77.5% 73.4% market and model agree

Draw 13.9% 16.2% draw risk

Celta Vigo 8.6% 10.4%

xG - 2.45 : 0.81

Total 2.5 Over 42.4% - Under 57.6%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 73.4% / 16.2% / 10.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,786 / 1,530 Barcelona / Celta Vigo

RD 83 / 73 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 9.59 market consensus · no value · model 10.4%

X 6.65 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 73.4%

Double chance

X2 3.95 market consensus · no value · model 26.6%

12 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 83.8%

1X 1.06 market consensus · no value · model 89.6%

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.78 market consensus · line only

2 -1 3.17 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 7.50 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.22 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 42.4%

Under 2.5 3.52 market consensus · weak value +102.8% · model 57.6%

Both teams to score

No 2.33 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.57 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.26 79.4%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.22 82.0%
X	5.90 17.0%	7.05 14.2%	6.00 16.7%	7.00 14.3%	6.10 16.4%	7.00 14.3%
	9.50 10.5%	10.80 9.3%	9.50 10.5%	10.50 9.5%	11.75 8.5%	10.50 9.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.40 41.7%	2.17 46.1%	2.45 40.8%	2.25 44.4%	2.37 42.2%	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.28 43.9%	2.28 43.9%
yes	1.53 65.4%	1.63 61.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.57 63.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.63 61.4%	1.58 63.3%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	3.70 27.0%	4.08 24.5%	3.80 26.3%	4.00 25.0%	3.85 26.0%	4.00 25.0%
home_away	1.11 90.1%	1.13 88.5%	1.11 90.1%	1.10 90.9%	1.14 87.7%	1.08 92.6%
home_draw	1.05 95.2%	1.07 93.5%	1.06 94.3%	1.06 94.3%	1.07 93.5%	1.04 96.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5	1.08 92.6%	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.75	—	1.05 95.2%
Over 2.0	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 2.25	—	1.16 86.2%
Over 2.5	1.28 78.1%	1.26 79.4%
Over 2.75	—	1.31 76.3%
Over 3.5	1.73 57.8%	—
Over 4.5	2.60 38.5%	—
Over 5.5	4.33 23.1%	—
Under 1.5	7.50 13.3%	—
Under 2.5	3.50 28.6%	—
Under 3.5	2.10 47.6%	—
Under 4.5	1.48 67.6%	—
Under 5.5	1.20 83.3%	—

Match center

Barcelona

Founded 1899

Celta Vigo

Founded 1923

Match center

Barcelona

W W W W W

11.04 16:30 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 4:1 Espanyol

04.04 19:00 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 2:1 Atletiko Madrid

22.03 13:00 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 1:0 Rayo Vallecano

15.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 5:2 Sevilla

07.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Barcelona 1:0 Athletic Club

5 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

2.6 Scored

0.8 Conceded

15 Points

Celta Vigo

L W L D L

12.04 16:30 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 0:3 Oviedo

05.04 14:15 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 3:2 Valencia

22.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 3:4 Alaves

15.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 1:1 Real Betis

06.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 1:2 Real Madrid

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.6 Scored

2.4 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBarcelona - Celta Vigo

Barcelona

2 matches total

Celta Vigo

Barcelona: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Celta Vigo: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Barselona 4:2 (09.11 20:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 7 goals (4:3, 19.04 14:15 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

09.11 20:00 UTC

La Liga

Barselona

4:2

Selta

19.04 14:15 UTC

La Liga

Barselona

4:3

Selta

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.