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La Liga
La Liga Spain
11.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
11.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Barcelona - Espanyol

Spain Football
Stadium Camp Nou
Barcelona
Barcelona
4 : 1
Finished
Espanyol
Espanyol
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Barcelona — 73%

1 · Barcelona ✓ Pick73.4%
market72%
X · draw16.3%
market17%
2 · Espanyol10.3%
market12%

Model estimate: win Barcelona 73.4%, draw 16.3%, win Espanyol 10.3%. Model favourite — Barcelona.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Barcelona - Espanyol April 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Barcelona.

Strongest: Barcelona - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.33 / X 5.75 / 2 8.20
  • 1X2 market: Barcelona 71.7% / X 16.6% / Espanyol 11.7%
  • Glicko: Barcelona 73.4% / X 16.3% / Espanyol 10.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 54.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 ✓ Pick 71.8%
X 16.6%
2 11.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5 69.1%
Under 2.5 30.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 74.5%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 11.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Stadium Camp Nou (Barcelona)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Barcelona 73%
💹 Market Barcelona 7172%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Barcelona - Espanyol

Barcelona: Win 1.33 Barcelona: Draw 5.50 Espanyol Win: 8.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 1.80 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Barcelona bolshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Barcelona menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Espanyo…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:1
Events 25
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
9' 9' Normal Goal | Ferran Torres | assist/sub out: Lamine Yamal Ryan Yates Barcelona
25' 25' Normal Goal | Ferran Torres | assist/sub out: Lamine Yamal Ryan Yates Barcelona
32' 32' Yellow Card | Omar El Hilali Espanyol
32' 32' Yellow Card | Pablo Gavi Barcelona
34' 34' Yellow Card | Edu Expósito Espanyol
45' 45' Yellow Card | Cyril Ngonge Espanyol
45+3' 45+3' Yellow Card | Eric García G. Medel Barcelona
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Tyrhys Dolan | assist/sub out: Roberto Fernández Espanyol
Metric Barcelona Espanyol SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.81 1.17 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 3 final
Shots off target 6 5 final
Shots on target 10 2 final
Udary vsego 20 10 final
Fouls soversheno 10 18 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 6 final
Offsides 4 2 final
Barcelona #3 A. Balde, #4 R. Araújo, #5 P. Cubarsi, #6 Gavi, #7 F. Torres, #8 Pedri, #10 Lamine Yamal, #13 J. Garcia, #16 Fermín, #18 G. Martin, #24 E. Garcia
Espanyol #4 Urko González, #5 Fernando Calero, #6 L. Cabrera, #8 Edu Expósito, #10 Pol Lozano, #13 M. Dmitrović, #16 C. Ngonge, #19 Kike García, #22 Carlos Romero, #23 O. El Hilali, #24 T. Dolan
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Balde Barcelona football.player.assists 0
A. Balde Barcelona Dribling popytki 2
A. Balde Barcelona Edinoborstva vyigrano 5
A. Balde Barcelona Seyvy 0
A. Balde Barcelona football.player.minutes_played 64
A. Balde Barcelona Klyuchevye pasy 45
A. Balde Barcelona Reyting (staryy) 6.3
A. Balde Barcelona Bloki 2
A. Balde Barcelona Otbory vsego 43
A. Balde Barcelona Yellow cards 2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Barcelona 75.2% 73.4% market and model agree
Draw 14.8% 16.3% draw risk
Espanyol 10.0% 10.3%
xG - 2.42 : 0.79
Total 2.5 Over 54.6% - Under 45.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 73.4% / 16.3% / 10.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,782 / 1,474 Barcelona / Espanyol
RD 84 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.20 market consensus · no value · model 10.3%
X 5.75 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 73.4%
Double chance
X2 3.38 market consensus · no value · model 26.6%
12 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 83.7%
1X 1.08 market consensus · no value · model 89.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.38 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.65 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.50 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.36 market consensus · no value · model 54.6%
Under 2.5 3.04 market consensus · weak value +38.2% · model 45.5%
Both teams to score
No 2.19 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.63 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.27 78.7% 1.34 74.6% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.37 73.0% 1.30 76.9%
X 5.90 17.0% 6.00 16.7% 6.00 16.7% 5.50 18.2% 5.60 17.9% 6.00 16.7%
8.70 11.5% 7.70 13.0% 8.75 11.4% 8.00 12.5% 8.25 12.1% 9.00 11.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.30 43.5% 2.24 44.6% 2.08 48.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.19 45.7% 2.15 46.5%
yes 1.57 63.7% 1.66 60.2% 1.68 59.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.68 59.5% 1.64 61.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 3.65 27.4% 3.42 29.2% 3.40 29.4% 3.25 30.8% 3.50 28.6% 3.30 30.3%
home_away 1.12 89.3% 1.16 86.2% 1.12 89.3% 1.15 87.0% 1.11 90.1% 1.06 94.3%
home_draw 1.05 95.2% 1.10 90.9% 1.08 92.6% 1.11 90.1% 1.05 95.2% 1.09 91.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.09 91.7% — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.75 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 2.5 1.30 76.9% — —
Over 3.5 1.80 55.6% 2.03 49.3% —
Over 3.75 — 2.04 49.0% —
Over 4.5 2.70 37.0% — —
Over 5.5 4.50 22.2% — —
Under 1.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 2.5 3.35 29.9% — —
Under 3.5 2.00 50.0% 1.87 53.5% —
Under 3.75 — 1.86 53.8% —
Under 4.5 1.45 69.0% — —
Under 5.5 1.20 83.3% — —
Match center
Barcelona
Founded 1899
Espanyol
Founded 1900
Match center
Barcelona
FD F. de Jong Hamstring Injury
R Raphinha Thigh Injury
Espanyol
JP Javi Puado Knee Injury
CR C. Riedel Yellow Cards
Barcelona Founded: 1899
Espanyol Founded: 1900
Match center
Barcelona
W W W W W
04.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Barcelona 2:1 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
22.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Barcelona 1:0 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
15.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Barcelona 5:2 SevillaSevilla
07.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Barcelona 1:0 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
28.02 15:15 UTC La Liga
Barcelona 4:1 VillarrealVillarreal
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
15 Points
Espanyol
D L L D D
04.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Espanyol 0:0 Real BetisReal Betis
21.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Espanyol 1:2 GetafeGetafe
15.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Espanyol 1:2 MallorcaMallorca
09.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Espanyol 1:1 OviedoOviedo
01.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Espanyol 2:2 ElcheElche
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBarcelona - Espanyol

Barcelona
2 matches total
Espanyol
Barcelona: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Espanyol: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Barselona 2:0 (03.01 20:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (2:0, 03.01 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

03.01 20:00 UTC La Liga
Barselona
2:0
Espanyol
15.05 19:30 UTC La Liga
Barselona
2:0
Espanyol
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.