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La Liga Spain

12.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction

12.04.2026 16:30 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Celta Vigo - Oviedo

Spain Football

Stadium Balaidos

Celta Vigo

0 : 3

Finished

Oviedo

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Celta Vigo — 52%

1 · Celta Vigo52.4%

X · draw25.1%

2 · Oviedo22.6%

Model estimate: win Celta Vigo 52.4%, draw 25.1%, win Oviedo 22.6%. Model favourite — Celta Vigo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Celta Vigo - Oviedo April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Celta Vigo.

Strongest: Celta Vigo - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.74 / X 3.61 / 2 5.14
1X2 market: Celta Vigo 55.0% / X 26.4% / Oviedo 18.6%
Glicko: Celta Vigo 52.4% / X 25.1% / Oviedo 22.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 55.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.6%

1 54.9%

X 26.5%

2 18.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 44.6%

Under 2.5 55.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 54.0%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 12.04.2026 16:30 UTC

Stadium Balaidos (Vigo)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Celta Vigo 52%

💹 Market Celta Vigo 5499%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Celta Vigo - Oviedo

Celta Vigo: Win 1.70 Celta Vigo: Draw 3.50 Oviedo Win: 5.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Celta Vigo bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Celta Vigo menshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Ovied…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:3

Events 16

Statistics 24

Lineups 44

min Event Player Team

4' 4' Normal Goal | Alberto Reina Oviedo

45' 45' Normal Goal | Federico ViG±as | assist/sub out: Ilyas Chaira Oviedo

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Matías Vecino | assist/sub out: Ilaix Moriba Celta Vigo

46' 46' Substitution 2 | AndrG©s AntaG±Gіn | assist/sub out: Iago Aspas Celta Vigo

56' 56' Yellow Card | Fer López Celta Vigo

57' 57' Normal Goal Oviedo

60' 60' Substitution 3 | Williot Swedberg | assist/sub out: Ferran Jutglà Celta Vigo

60' 60' Substitution 4 | Alvaro NGєG±ez | assist/sub out: G“scar Mingueza Celta Vigo

Metric Celta Vigo Oviedo SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.91 1.71 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 1 final

Shots off target 1 2 final

Shots on target 6 5 final

Udary vsego 9 8 final

Fouls soversheno 9 13 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final

Offsides 2 2 final

Celta Vigo #4 J. Aidoo, #5 Sergio Carreira, #8 Fer LGіpez, #13 I. Radu, #14 GЃlvaro NGєG±ez, #17 Javi Rueda, #18 Pablo DurGЎn, #19 W. Swedberg, #20 Marcos Alonso, #36 AndrG©s AntaG±Gіn

Oviedo #2 E. Bailly, #5 A. Reina, #6 K. Sibo, #7 I. Chaira, #9 F. Vinas, #12 D. Calvo, #13 A. Escandell, #15 T. Fernández, #22 N. Vidal, #23 N. Fonseca, #25 J. Lopez

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Escandell Oviedo football.player.assists 0

A. Escandell Oviedo Seyvy 0

A. Escandell Oviedo football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Escandell Oviedo Klyuchevye pasy 38

A. Escandell Oviedo Reyting 6

A. Escandell Oviedo Reyting (staryy) 8.3

A. Escandell Oviedo Otbory vsego 23

A. Reina Oviedo football.player.assists 0

A. Reina Oviedo Dribling popytki 7

A. Reina Oviedo Dribling uspeshno 2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Celta Vigo 55.2% 52.4% market and model agree

Draw 25.4% 25.1% draw risk

Oviedo 19.3% 22.6%

xG - 1.60 : 0.95

Total 2.5 Over 55.1% - Under 44.9%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 52.4% / 25.1% / 22.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,551 / 1,407 Celta Vigo / Oviedo

RD 73 / 78 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 5.14 market consensus · no value · model 22.6%

X 3.61 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 52.4%

Double chance

X2 2.09 market consensus · no value · model 47.6%

12 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 75.0%

1X 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 77.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.14 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.61 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.57 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.95 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.14 market consensus · value +17.8% · model 55.1%

Under 2.5 1.72 market consensus · no value · model 44.9%

Both teams to score

No 1.73 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.03 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.68 59.5%	1.72 58.1%	1.82 55.0%	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.75 57.1%
X	3.50 28.6%	3.70 27.0%	3.74 26.7%	3.50 28.6%	3.70 27.0%	3.60 27.8%
	5.25 19.1%	5.20 19.2%	5.03 19.9%	5.50 18.2%	5.70 17.5%	5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.75 57.1%	1.77 56.5%	1.66 60.2%	1.80 55.6%	1.72 58.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.65 60.6%	1.81 55.3%
yes	2.00 50.0%	2.06 48.5%	2.11 47.4%	1.95 51.3%	2.05 48.8%	2.15 46.5%	2.00 50.0%	2.11 47.4%	1.91 52.4%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%	2.05 48.8%	2.18 45.9%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.32 75.8%	1.28 78.1%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.15 87.0%	1.21 82.6%	1.18 84.8%	1.18 84.8%	1.13 88.5%	1.17 85.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.07 93.5%	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.20 83.3%
Over 1.5	1.38 72.5%	—	—
Over 2.25	—	1.97 50.8%	—
Over 2.5	2.10 47.6%	2.03 49.3%	—
Over 3.5	3.85 26.0%	—	—
Over 4.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
Under 0.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.00 33.3%	—	—
Under 2.25	—	1.93 51.8%	—
Under 2.5	1.70 58.8%	1.87 53.5%	—
Under 3.5	1.25 80.0%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.07 93.5%	—	—

Match center

Celta Vigo

Founded 1923

Oviedo

Founded 1926

Match center

Celta Vigo

MR M. Ristić Injury

CS C. Starfelt Injury

Oviedo

LD L. Dendoncker Injury

LI L. Ilić Achilles Tendon Injury

Celta Vigo Founded: 1923

Oviedo Founded: 1926

Match center

Celta Vigo

W L D L W

05.04 14:15 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 3:2 Valencia

22.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 3:4 Alaves

15.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 1:1 Real Betis

06.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 1:2 Real Madrid

01.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Celta Vigo 2:1 Girona

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

2.0 Scored

2.0 Conceded

7 Points

Oviedo

W L W D L

05.04 16:30 UTC La Liga

Oviedo 1:0 Sevilla

21.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Oviedo 2:4 Levante

14.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Oviedo 1:0 Valencia

09.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Oviedo 1:1 Espanyol

04.03 18:00 UTC La Liga

Oviedo 0:3 Rayo Vallecano

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.6 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyCelta Vigo - Oviedo

Celta Vigo

1 matches total

Oviedo

Celta Vigo: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Oviedo: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (20.12 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

20.12 13:00 UTC

La Liga

Selta

0:0

Oviedo

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.