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La Liga
La Liga Spain
22.04.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
22.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Elche - Atletico Madrid

Spain Football
Stadium Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Capacity 36 017
Elche
Elche
3 : 2
Finished
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Elche — 37%

1 · Elche37.4%
X · draw25.6%
2 · Atletico Madrid37.0%

Model estimate: win Elche 37.4%, draw 25.6%, win Atletico Madrid 37.0%. Model favourite — Elche.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Elche - Atletico Madrid April 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Elche.

Strongest: Elche - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.36 / X 3.62 / 2 2.84
  • 1X2 market: Elche 40.3% / X 26.3% / Atletico Madrid 33.5%
  • Glicko: Elche 37.4% / X 25.6% / Atletico Madrid 37.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 40.3%
X 26.3%
2 33.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 55.1%
Under 2.5 44.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 6/9
Confidence 57.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 22.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Stadium Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero (Elche)
Capacity 36,017

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Elche 37%
💹 Market Elche 4028%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Elche - Atletico Madrid

Elche: Win 2.30 Elche: Draw 3.70 Atletico Madrid Win: 2.80 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Elche bolshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Elche menshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Atletico Madrid …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:2
Events 18
Statistics 26
Lineups 46
min Event Player Team
10' 10' Normal Goal | Nicolás González | assist/sub out: Rodrigo Mendoza Atletico Madrid
18' 18' Normal Goal | David Affengruber | assist/sub out: Tete Morente Elche
30' 30' Red Card | Thiago Almada D. Bohar Atletico Madrid
33' 33' Penalty | Andre Silva Z. Aboukhlal Elche
34' 34' Normal Goal | Nicolás González | assist/sub out: Robin Le Normand Atletico Madrid
36' 36' Yellow Card | Clément Lenglet Atletico Madrid
38' 38' Yellow Card | Julio Díaz Atletico Madrid
45+4' 45+4' Yellow Card | Aleix Febas Elche
Metric Elche Atletico Madrid SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.78 1.01 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 1 final
Shots off target 6 2 final
Shots on target 6 3 final
Udary vsego 14 6 final
Fouls soversheno 11 12 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final
Elche #4 R. Mendoza, #5 J. Cardoso, #10 A. Baena, #11 T. Almada, #13 J. Oblak, #15 ClG©ment Lenglet, #21 O. Vargas, #23 N. Gonzalez, #24 R. Le Normand, #32 Javier BoG±ar, #34 Julio DG­az
Atletico Madrid #1 M. Dituro, #9 Andre Silva, #10 R. Mir, #11 G. Valera, #12 G. Villar, #14 A. Febas, #15 Tete Morente, #16 M. Neto, #21 L. Petrot, #22 D. Affengruber, #42 Buba Sangare
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Febas Atletico Madrid football.player.assists 0
A. Febas Atletico Madrid Dribling popytki 9
A. Febas Atletico Madrid Dribling uspeshno 1
A. Febas Atletico Madrid Edinoborstva vsego 2
A. Febas Atletico Madrid Edinoborstva vyigrano 10
A. Febas Atletico Madrid Fouls soversheno 5
A. Febas Atletico Madrid Fouls na igroke 1
A. Febas Atletico Madrid Seyvy 0
A. Febas Atletico Madrid football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Febas Atletico Madrid Klyuchevye pasy 85
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Elche 41.5% 37.4% market and model agree
Draw 26.9% 25.6% draw risk
Atletico Madrid 31.6% 37.0%
xG - 1.38 : 1.37
Total 2.5 Over 37.0% - Under 63.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 37.4% / 25.6% / 37.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,461 / 1,608 Elche / Atletico Madrid
RD 75 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.84 market consensus · no value · model 37.0%
X 3.62 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.36 market consensus · no value · model 37.4%
Double chance
X2 1.59 market consensus · no value · model 62.6%
12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 74.4%
1X 1.40 market consensus · no value · model 63.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.59 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.27 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.69 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.93 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 37.0%
Under 2.5 2.12 market consensus · value +33.5% · model 63.0%
Both teams to score
No 2.27 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.58 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.35 42.6% 2.35 42.6% 2.30 43.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.37 42.2% 2.40 41.7%
X 3.65 27.4% 3.70 27.0% 3.40 29.4% 3.70 27.0% 3.70 27.0% 3.60 27.8%
2.72 36.8% 3.13 32.0% 2.88 34.7% 2.80 35.7% 2.80 35.7% 2.75 36.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.27 44.1% 2.38 42.0% 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1% 2.25 44.4%
yes 1.57 63.7% 1.56 64.1% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.56 64.1% 1.58 63.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.55 64.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.45 69.0% 1.42 70.4% 1.33 75.2% 1.40 71.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3%
Over 1.75 — 1.25 80.0%
Over 2.0 — 1.32 75.8%
Over 2.25 — 1.52 65.8%
Over 2.5 1.70 58.8% —
Over 3.5 2.80 35.7% —
Over 4.5 5.00 20.0% —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 1.5 4.20 23.8% —
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6% —
Under 3.5 1.42 70.4% —
Under 4.5 1.17 85.5% —
Match center
Elche
Founded 1923
Atletico Madrid
Founded 1903
Match center
Elche
W W L L D
11.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:0 ValenciaValencia
21.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 2:1 MallorcaMallorca
14.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:4 Real MadridReal Madrid
08.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:2 VillarrealVillarreal
01.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 2:2 EspanyolEspanyol
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.8 Conceded
7 Points
Atletico Madrid
L L L W W
11.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 1:2 SevillaSevilla
04.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 1:2 BarselonaBarselona
22.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 2:3 Real MadridReal Madrid
14.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 1:0 GetafeGetafe
07.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Atletico Madrid 3:2 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyElche - Atletico Madrid

Elche
1 matches total
Atletico Madrid
Elche: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Atletico Madrid: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 23.08 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (23.08 17:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

23.08 17:30 UTC La Liga
Elche
1:1
Atletiko Madrid
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.