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La Liga
La Liga Spain
21.03.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
21.03.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Elche - Mallorca

Spain Football
Stadium Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Referee Javier Alberola Rojas
Capacity 36 017
Elche
Elche
2 : 1
Finished
Mallorca
Mallorca
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Elche — 45%

1 · Elche45.3%
X · draw25.9%
2 · Mallorca28.9%

Model estimate: win Elche 45.3%, draw 25.9%, win Mallorca 28.9%. Model favourite — Elche.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Elche - Mallorca March 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Elche.

Strongest: Elche - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.08 / X 3.36 / 2 3.62
  • 1X2 market: Elche 45.6% / X 28.2% / Mallorca 26.2%
  • Glicko: Elche 45.3% / X 25.9% / Mallorca 28.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 49.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 45.6%
X 28.2%
2 26.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 48.7%
Under 2.5 51.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 45.9%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 21.03.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero (Elche)
Referee Javier Alberola Rojas
Capacity 36,017

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Elche 45%
💹 Market Elche 4557%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Elche - Mallorca

Elche: Win 2.12 Elche: Draw 3.43 Mallorca Win: 3.78 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.99 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Elche bolshe 1.5: 2.15 Individualnyy total golov Elche menshe 1.5: 1.75 Individualnyy total golov Mallorca bolshe 0.5: 1.…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 17
Statistics 24
Lineups 41
min Event Player Team
29' 29' Yellow Card | Víctor Chust Elche
58' 58' Normal Goal | Pablo Torre Mallorca
62' 62' Normal Goal Elche
65' 65' Substitution 1 | G. Diangana | assist/sub out: Gonzalo Villar Adam Clunie Elche
65' 65' Substitution 1 | Zito Luvumbo | assist/sub out: Manu Morlanes Mallorca
65' 65' Substitution 2 | Pablo Torre | assist/sub out: Darder Mallorca
71' 71' Normal Goal | Tete Morente Elche
79' 79' Substitution 2 | Marc Aguado | assist/sub out: F. Redondo Elche
Metric Elche Mallorca SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.6 1.37 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 3 final
Shots off target 6 4 final
Shots on target 4 4 final
Udary vsego 13 11 final
Fouls soversheno 12 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Elche #1 M. Dituro, #6 P. Bigas, #8 M. Aguado, #10 R. Mir, #11 G. Valera, #14 A. Febas, #15 Tete Morente, #19 G. Diangana, #20 A. Rodriguez, #22 D. Affengruber, #23 V. Chust
Mallorca #1 L. Roman, #3 T. Lato, #5 Omar Mascarell, #6 A. Sanchez, #7 V. Muriqi, #12 Samu Costa, #15 Zito Luvumbo, #18 M. Joseph, #20 P. Torre, #21 A. Raillo, #24 M. Valjent
Player Team Metric SStats
M. Neto Seyvy 0
Y. Santiago Seyvy 0
A. Prats Mallorca Seyvy 0
A. Raillo Mallorca football.player.assists 0
A. Raillo Mallorca Dribling popytki 9
A. Raillo Mallorca Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Raillo Mallorca Edinoborstva vyigrano 12
A. Raillo Mallorca Fouls soversheno 1
A. Raillo Mallorca Conceded golov 1
A. Raillo Mallorca Seyvy 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Elche 46.2% 45.3% market and model agree
Draw 28.1% 25.9% draw risk
Mallorca 25.7% 28.9%
xG - 1.48 : 1.13
Total 2.5 Over 49.7% - Under 50.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 45.3% / 25.9% / 28.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,448 / 1,464 Elche / Mallorca
RD 78 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.62 market consensus · no value · model 28.9%
X 3.36 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.09 market consensus · no value · model 45.3%
Double chance
X2 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 54.8%
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 74.2%
1X 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 71.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.77 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.35 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.49 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.89 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 49.7%
Under 2.5 1.86 market consensus · no value · model 50.3%
Both teams to score
No 2.01 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.76 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.15 46.5%
X 3.36 29.8%
3.67 27.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.08 48.1% 2.11 47.4% 2.14 46.7% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.12 47.2%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.45 29.0% 3.52 28.4% 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.30 30.3%
3.45 29.0% 3.60 27.8% 3.78 26.5% 3.50 28.6% 3.70 27.0% 3.65 27.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.00 50.0% 2.08 48.1% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5%
yes 1.75 57.1% 1.76 56.8% 1.74 57.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.74 57.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.70 58.8% 1.79 55.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0%
Match center
Elche
Founded 1923
Mallorca
Founded 1916
Match center
Elche
JN John Nwankwo Injury
HF Héctor Fort Shoulder Injury
Mallorca
TA T. Asano Muscle Injury
MK M. Kumbulla Muscle Injury
Elche Founded: 1923
Mallorca Founded: 1916
Match center
Elche
L L D L D
14.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:4 Real MadridReal Madrid
08.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:2 VillarrealVillarreal
01.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 2:2 EspanyolEspanyol
20.02 20:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:2 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
13.02 20:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 0:0 OsasunaOsasuna
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
2 Points
Mallorca
W D L L L
15.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 2:1 EspanyolEspanyol
07.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 2:2 OsasunaOsasuna
28.02 17:30 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 0:1 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
22.02 17:30 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 0:2 SeltaSelta
15.02 20:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 1:2 Real BetisReal Betis
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.6 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyElche - Mallorca

Elche
1 matches total
Mallorca
Elche: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Mallorca: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Mallorca 1:3 (13.12 15:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 13.12 15:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

13.12 15:15 UTC La Liga
Elche
1:3
Mallorca
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.