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La Liga
La Liga Spain
11.04.2026 14:15 UTC Match prediction
11.04.2026 14:15 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Elche - Valencia

Spain Football
Stadium Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Capacity 36 017
Elche
Elche
1 : 0
Finished
Valencia
Valencia
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Elche — 37%

1 · Elche37.3%
X · draw26.7%
2 · Valencia36.1%

Model estimate: win Elche 37.3%, draw 26.7%, win Valencia 36.1%. Model favourite — Elche.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Elche - Valencia April 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Elche.

Strongest: Elche - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.53 / X 3.29 / 2 2.85
  • 1X2 market: Elche 37.6% / X 29.0% / Valencia 33.4%
  • Glicko: Elche 37.3% / X 26.7% / Valencia 36.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 45.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 37.6%
X 28.9%
2 33.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%
Over 2.5 47.1%
Under 2.5 52.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 27.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 11.04.2026 14:15 UTC
Stadium Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero (Elche)
Capacity 36,017

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Elche 37%
💹 Market Elche 3763%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Elche - Valencia

Elche: Win 2.50 Elche: Draw 3.30 Valencia Win: 2.88 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Elche bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Elche menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Valencia bolshe 1.5: 2.…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 13
Statistics 24
Lineups 43
min Event Player Team
59' 59' Yellow Card | Buba Sangare Elche
61' 61' Substitution 1 | Umar Sadiq | assist/sub out: Hugo Duro Valencia
61' 61' Substitution 2 | Luis Rioja | assist/sub out: Diego López Valencia
63' 63' Yellow Card | Guido Rodríguez N. Elvedi Valencia
64' 64' Substitution 1 | André Silva | assist/sub out: Álvaro Rodriguez Z. Aboukhlal Elche
64' 64' Substitution 2 | Buba Sangare | assist/sub out: John Donald Elche
72' 72' Substitution 3 | Martim Neto | assist/sub out: Lucas Cepeda Elche
72' 72' Substitution 4 | Gonzalo Villar | assist/sub out: Adrià Pedrosa Elche
Metric Elche Valencia SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.59 2.54 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 7 final
Shots off target 5 7 final
Shots on target 2 8 final
Udary vsego 8 22 final
Fouls soversheno 15 18 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 1 final
Offsides 4 3 final
Elche #1 S. Dimitrievski, #2 G. Rodriguez, #5 C. Tarrega, #6 U. Sadiq, #11 L. Rioja, #12 T. Rendall, #14 J. Gaya, #15 L. Beltran, #17 L. Ramazani, #23 F. Ugrinic, #24 E. Comert
Valencia #1 M. Dituro, #9 Andre Silva, #10 R. Mir, #11 G. Valera, #12 G. Villar, #14 A. Febas, #15 Tete Morente, #16 M. Neto, #21 L. Petrot, #22 D. Affengruber, #42 Buba Sangare
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Febas Valencia football.player.assists 1
A. Febas Valencia Dribling popytki 13
A. Febas Valencia Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Febas Valencia Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Febas Valencia Edinoborstva vyigrano 18
A. Febas Valencia Fouls soversheno 3
A. Febas Valencia Fouls na igroke 2
A. Febas Valencia Conceded golov 1
A. Febas Valencia Seyvy 0
A. Febas Valencia football.player.minutes_played 90
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Elche 37.8% 37.3% market and model agree
Draw 29.0% 26.7% draw risk
Valencia 33.1% 36.1%
xG - 1.29 : 1.26
Total 2.5 Over 45.8% - Under 54.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 37.3% / 26.7% / 36.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,451 / 1,496 Elche / Valencia
RD 76 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.85 market consensus · no value · model 36.1%
X 3.29 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.53 market consensus · no value · model 37.3%
Double chance
X2 1.52 market consensus · no value · model 62.7%
12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 73.3%
1X 1.41 market consensus · no value · model 63.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.54 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.21 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.72 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.88 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.03 market consensus · no value · model 45.8%
Under 2.5 1.81 market consensus · no value · model 54.2%
Both teams to score
No 2.00 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.75 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.40 41.7% 2.58 38.8% 2.60 38.5% 2.50 40.0% 2.52 39.7% 2.55 39.2%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.39 29.5% 3.30 30.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.30 30.3%
2.86 35.0% 2.84 35.2% 2.98 33.6% 2.88 34.7% 2.82 35.5% 2.80 35.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.00 50.0% 2.08 48.1% 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.96 51.0% 1.93 51.8%
yes 1.75 57.1% 1.76 56.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.79 55.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.55 64.5% 1.56 64.1% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.25 — — 1.17 85.5%
Over 1.5 1.33 75.2% — —
Over 2.25 — 1.81 55.3% —
Over 2.5 2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0% —
Over 3.5 3.50 28.6% — —
Over 4.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Under 2.25 — 2.09 47.9% —
Under 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.86 53.8% —
Under 3.5 1.28 78.1% — —
Under 4.5 1.09 91.7% — —
Match center
Elche
Founded 1923
Valencia
Founded 1919
Match center
Elche
GD G. Diangana Injury
B Bigas Red Card
Valencia
MD M. Diakhaby Muscle Injury
RS R. Saravia Injury
Elche Founded: 1923
Valencia Founded: 1919
Match center
Elche
W L L D L
21.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 2:1 MallorcaMallorca
14.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:4 Real MadridReal Madrid
08.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:2 VillarrealVillarreal
01.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 2:2 EspanyolEspanyol
20.02 20:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:2 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.4 Scored
2.2 Conceded
4 Points
Valencia
L W L W W
05.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Valencia 2:3 SeltaSelta
21.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Valencia 2:0 SevillaSevilla
14.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Valencia 0:1 OviedoOviedo
08.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Valencia 3:2 AlavesAlaves
01.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Valencia 1:0 OsasunaOsasuna
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.2 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyElche - Valencia

Elche
1 matches total
Valencia
Elche: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Valencia: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 10.01 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (10.01 20:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

10.01 20:00 UTC La Liga
Elche
1:1
Valencia
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.