La Liga Spain

34-й тур 03.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

03.05.2026 19:00 UTC 34-й тур

Finished

La Liga

Espanyol - Real Madrid

Spain Futbol

Stadium Стейдж Фронт Стэдиум

Espanyol

0 : 2

Finished

Real Madrid

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Real Madrid — 56%

1 · Espanyol19.9%

X · draw23.8%

2 · Real Madrid ✓ Прогноз56.3%

Model estimate: win Espanyol 19.9%, draw 23.8%, win Real Madrid 56.3%. Model favourite — Real Madrid.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Espanyol - Real Madrid 3 мая 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.

Strongest: Real Madrid - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.37 / X 3.85 / 2 1.78
1X2 market: Espanyol 21.8% / X 24.7% / Real Madrid 53.4%
Glicko: Espanyol 19.9% / X 23.8% / Real Madrid 56.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 41.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 21.8%

X 24.7%

2 ✓ Прогноз 53.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%

Over 2.5 59.7%

Under 2.5 40.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П2

Main outcome П2

Agreement 5/5

Confidence 59.3%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 0:1

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

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Match center

Stadium Корнелья-Эль Прат (Барселона, Испания), 31 733 зрителя (79% при вместимости 40 423)

Referee Хесус Хиль Мансано (Дон-Бенито, Испания)

Start 03.05.2026 19:00 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Real Madrid 56%

💹 Market Real Madrid 5344%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Espanyol - Real Madrid

Итоговый протокол и результаты встречи Эспаньол - Реал Мадрид, 3 мая 2026. Обзор и статистика матча, точный счет. Чемпионат Испании по футболу (Ла Лига) 2025-2026, 34-й тур. Эспаньол - Реал Мадрид, кто победил, онлайн трансляция матча.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:2

Events 20

Statistics 24

Lineups 45

min Event Player Team

14' 14' Substitution 1 | F. Mendy | assist/sub out: F. Garcia F. Mendy Real Madrid

22' 22' Yellow Card | B. Diaz B. Diaz Real Madrid

23' 23' Yellow Card | Vinicius Junior Vinicius Junior Real Madrid

26' 26' Red card cancelled | O. El Hilali O. El Hilali Espanyol

26' 26' Yellow Card | O. El Hilali O. El Hilali Espanyol

45+2' 45+2' Yellow Card | Exposito Edu Expósito Espanyol

50' 50' Yellow Card | T. Alexander-Arnold T. Alexander-Arnold Real Madrid

53' 53' Substitution 2 | T. Pitarch | assist/sub out: F. Mastantuono Thiago Pitarch Real Madrid

Metric Espanyol Real Madrid SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.21 2.08 final

Заблокированные удары 6 5 final

Удары мимо 8 5 final

Удары в створ 3 5 final

Удары всего 17 15 final

Фолы совершено 19 16 final

Желтые карточки 3 4 final

Офсайды 1 2 final

Espanyol #8 Edu Expósito, #9 Roberto Fernández, #13 M. Dmitrović, #22 Carlos Romero, #24 T. Dolan, #4 Urko González, #6 L. Cabrera, #14 Ramón Terrats, #2 Rubén Sánchez, #5 Fernando Calero, #23 O. El Hilali

Real Madrid #7 Vinicius Junior, #13 A. Lunin, #21 B. Diaz, #23 F. Mendy, #5 J. Bellingham, #14 A. Tchouameni, #24 D. Huijsen, #22 A. Rüdiger, #45 Thiago Pitarch, #8 F. Valverde, #12 T. Alexander-Arnold

Player Team Metric SStats

Alex Almansa Espanyol Сейвы 0

ГЃngel FortuГ±o Espanyol Сейвы 0

Antoniu Roca Espanyol football.player.assists 0

Antoniu Roca Espanyol Дриблинг попытки 4

Antoniu Roca Espanyol Дриблинг успешно 3

Antoniu Roca Espanyol Единоборства всего 1

Antoniu Roca Espanyol Единоборства выиграно 7

Antoniu Roca Espanyol Фолы на игроке 2

Antoniu Roca Espanyol Сейвы 0

Antoniu Roca Espanyol football.player.minutes_played 29

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Espanyol 19.5% 19.9%

Draw 24.7% 23.8% draw risk

Real Madrid 55.7% 56.3% market and model agree

xG - 0.91 : 1.71

Total 2.5 Over 41.6% - Under 58.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 19.9% / 23.8% / 56.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,463 / 1,682 Espanyol / Real Madrid

RD 72 / 78 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.78 market consensus · no value · model 56.3%

X 3.85 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 4.37 market consensus · no value · model 19.9%

Double chance

X2 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 80.1%

12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 76.2%

1X 2.04 market consensus · no value · model 43.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.21 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.03 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.75 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.34 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.59 market consensus · no value · model 41.6%

Under 2.5 2.36 market consensus · value +37.9% · model 58.4%

Both teams to score

No 2.37 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.53 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
П1	4.30 23.3%	4.57 21.9%	4.33 23.1%	4.35 23.0%	4.50 22.2%	4.50 22.2%
Х	3.80 26.3%	4.00 25.0%	3.90 25.6%	3.90 25.6%	3.75 26.7%	3.80 26.3%
П2	1.75 57.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet	William Hill
no	2.38 42.0%	2.35 42.6%	2.25 44.4%	2.40 41.7%	2.38 42.0%	2.38 42.0%	2.32 43.1%	2.45 40.8%	2.38 42.0%
yes	1.53 65.4%	1.54 64.9%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.54 64.9%	1.50 66.7%	1.57 63.7%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.20 83.3%	1.24 80.7%	1.18 84.8%	1.25 80.0%	1.17 85.5%	1.20 83.3%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.20 83.3%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	2.00 50.0%	2.09 47.9%	2.10 47.6%	2.02 49.5%	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.03 97.1%
ТБ 1.0	—	1.03 97.1%
ТБ 1.5	1.20 83.3%	1.13 88.5%
ТБ 1.75	—	1.17 85.5%
ТБ 2.0	—	1.22 82.0%
ТБ 2.25	—	1.46 68.5%
ТБ 2.5	1.57 63.7%	—
ТБ 3.5	2.40 41.7%	—
ТБ 4.5	4.20 23.8%	—
ТБ 5.5	7.50 13.3%	—
ТМ 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
ТМ 1.5	4.50 22.2%	—
ТМ 2.5	2.35 42.6%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.55 64.5%	—
ТМ 4.5	1.22 82.0%	—
ТМ 5.5	1.08 92.6%	—

Match center

Espanyol

Founded 1900

Real Madrid

Founded 1902

Match center

Espanyol

JP Javi Puado Knee Injury

PL Pol Lozano Red Card

Real Madrid

KM Kylian Mbappé Muscle Injury

ÉM Éder Militão Muscle Injury

Хавьер Пуадо Травмированные Родриго Эдер Милитао Арда Гюлер Килиан Мбаппе Тибо Куртуа Даниэль Карвахаль Дисквалифицированные Поль Лосано CHAMP

Espanyol Founded: 1900

Real Madrid Founded: 1902

Match center

Espanyol

D L L D L

27.04 19:00 UTC La Liga

Espanyol 0:0 Леванте

23.04 18:00 UTC La Liga

Espanyol 0:1 Rayo Vallecano

11.04 16:30 UTC La Liga

Espanyol 1:4 Barselona

04.04 16:30 UTC La Liga

Espanyol 0:0 Реал Бетис

21.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Espanyol 1:2 Getafe

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

0.4 Scored

1.4 Conceded

2 Points

Real Madrid

D W D L W

24.04 19:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 1:1 Реал Бетис

21.04 19:30 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 2:1 Alaves

10.04 19:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 1:1 Girona

04.04 14:15 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 1:2 Mallorca

22.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 3:2 Atletiko Madrid

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.4 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyEspanyol - Real Madrid

Espanyol

2 matches total

Real Madrid

Espanyol: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Real Madrid: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Real Madrid 1:4 (21.09 19:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (1:4, 21.09 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 6

6 Goals conceded 1

Match history

20.09 14:15 UTC

La Liga

Espanyol

0:2

Real Madrid

21.09 19:00 UTC

La Liga

Espanyol

1:4

Real Madrid

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Espanyol

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Real Madrid

33 Игры 33

10 Победы 23

9 Ничьи 5

14 Поражения 5

37 Забито 68

49 Пропущено 31

39 Очки 74

87.48 Атаки 118.8

43 Опасные атаки 63.13

0 Голевые моменты 0

12.03 Удары по воротам 17.88

4.12 Удары в створ 6.91

ления 0.18 Голы Винисиус Жуниор Гонсало Гарсия 0:1 55' Винисиус Жуниор Джуд Беллингем 0:2 66' Наказания Браим Диас 22' Винисиус Жуниор 23' Омар Эль-Хилали 26' Эду Эспосито 45+2' Трент Александер-Арнольд 50' Гонсало Гарсия 75' Урко Гонсалес 85'

Эспаньол Реал Мадрид 33 Игры 33 10 Победы 23 9 Ничьи 5 14 Поражения 5 37 Забито 68 49 Пропущено 31 39 Очки 74 87.48 Атаки 118.8 43 Опасные атаки 63.13 0 Голевые моменты 0 12.03 Удары по воротам 17.88 4.12 Удары в створ 6.91 0 Штанги/перекладины 0 4.67 Угловые 6.48 1.88 Оффсайды 1.91 13.67 Фолы 9.76 42.45 % владения мячом 59.09 2.33 Предупреждения 1.76 0.15 Удаления 0.18 Голы Винисиус Жуниор Гонсало Гарсия 0:1 55' Винисиус Жуниор Джуд Беллингем 0:2 66' Наказания Браим Диас 22' Винисиус Жуниор 23' Омар Эль-Хилали 26' Эду Эспосито 45+2' Трент Александер-Арнольд 50' Гонсало Гарсия 75' Урко Гонсалес 85'