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La Liga
La Liga Spain
05.04.2026 12:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 12:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Getafe - Athletic Club

Spain Football
Stadium Koliseum Alfonso Peres
Getafe
Getafe
2 : 0
Finished
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Athletic Club — 36%

1 · Getafe33.7%
X · draw30.0%
2 · Athletic Club36.4%

Model estimate: win Getafe 33.7%, draw 30.0%, win Athletic Club 36.4%. Model favourite — Athletic Club.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Getafe - Athletic Club April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Athletic Club.

Strongest: Athletic Club - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.07 / X 2.83 / 2 2.68
  • 1X2 market: Getafe 31.0% / X 33.6% / Athletic Club 35.4%
  • Glicko: Getafe 33.7% / X 30.0% / Athletic Club 36.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 31.0%
X 33.6%
2 35.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.7%
Over 2.5 31.6%
Under 2.5 68.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 31.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 12:00 UTC
Stadium Koliseum Alfonso Peres (Khetafe)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Athletic Club 36%
💹 Market Athletic Club 3542%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Getafe - Athletic Club

Getafe: Win 3.00 Getafe: Draw 2.88 Athletic Club Win: 2.70 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Getafe bolshe 0.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Getafe menshe 0.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Athletic Club …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 6
Statistics 24
Lineups 41
min Event Player Team
14' 14' Normal Goal | Martín Satriano Getafe
29' 29' Yellow Card | Djené Getafe
31' 31' Yellow Card | Yuri Berchiche Athletic Club
45+1' 45+1' Yellow Card | Mauro Arambarri Getafe
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Alejandro Rego | assist/sub out: IG±igo Ruiz de Galarreta Athletic Club
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Gorka Guruzeta | assist/sub out: Nico Williams Athletic Club
Metric Getafe Athletic Club SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.94 0.57 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 2 final
Shots off target 3 3 final
Shots on target 6 0 final
Udary vsego 10 5 final
Fouls soversheno 11 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final
Offsides 3 1 final
Getafe #1 U. Simon, #3 Dani Vivian, #5 Y. Alvarez, #7 Álex Berenguer, #8 Oihan Sancet, #9 I. Williams, #11 Gorka Guruzeta, #14 A. Laporte, #17 Yuri, #18 Mikel Jauregizar, #30 Alejandro Rego
Athletic Club #2 D. Dakonam, #5 L. Milla, #8 M. Arambarri, #10 M. Satriano, #13 D. Soria, #15 S. Boselli, #19 L. Vazquez, #21 J. Iglesias, #22 D. Duarte, #23 A. Liso, #24 Z. Romero
Player Team Metric SStats
Alex Sancris Seyvy 0
A. Boiro Getafe Seyvy 0
A. Laporte Getafe football.player.assists 0
A. Laporte Getafe Dribling popytki 2
A. Laporte Getafe Edinoborstva vyigrano 2
A. Laporte Getafe Seyvy 0
A. Laporte Getafe football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Laporte Getafe Klyuchevye pasy 91
A. Laporte Getafe Reyting (staryy) 6.9
A. Laporte Getafe Otbory vsego 83
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Getafe 31.3% 33.7%
Draw 33.6% 30.0% draw risk
Athletic Club 35.1% 36.4% market and model agree
xG - 1.02 : 1.07
Total 2.5 Over 51.6% - Under 48.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 33.7% / 30.0% / 36.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,518 / 1,497 Getafe / Athletic Club
RD 75 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.68 market consensus · no value · model 36.4%
X 2.83 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.07 market consensus · no value · model 33.7%
Double chance
X2 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 66.4%
12 1.41 market consensus · no value · model 70.0%
1X 1.46 market consensus · no value · model 63.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.38 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.10 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.60 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.02 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.97 market consensus · weak value +53.2% · model 51.6%
Under 2.5 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 48.4%
Both teams to score
No 1.58 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.29 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.95 33.9% 3.20 31.3% 3.21 31.2% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.05 32.8%
X 2.84 35.2% 2.84 35.2% 2.92 34.3% 2.75 36.4% 2.90 34.5% 2.87 34.8%
2.65 37.7% 2.66 37.6% 2.76 36.2% 2.63 38.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.65 37.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.57 63.7% 1.63 61.4% 1.58 63.3% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.56 64.1%
yes 2.30 43.5% 2.29 43.7% 2.27 44.1% 2.25 44.4% 2.38 42.0% 2.32 43.1% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.38 72.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.33 75.2%
home_away 1.36 73.5% 1.46 68.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.39 71.9% 1.36 73.5%
home_draw 1.45 69.0% 1.51 66.2% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.14 87.7% — 1.12 89.3%
Over 0.75 — — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.20 83.3%
Over 1.25 — — 1.42 70.4%
Over 1.5 1.65 60.6% — 1.70 58.8%
Over 1.75 — 1.89 52.9% 1.82 55.0%
Over 2.5 3.00 33.3% — —
Over 3.5 6.25 16.0% — —
Over 4.5 11.00 9.1% — —
Under 0.5 5.50 18.2% — —
Under 1.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Under 1.75 — 2.01 49.8% —
Under 2.5 1.38 72.5% — —
Under 3.5 1.11 90.1% — —
Under 4.5 1.03 97.1% — —
Match center
Getafe
Founded 1983
Athletic Club
Founded 1898
Match center
Getafe
KF Kiko Femenía Yellow Cards
AA A. Abqar Red Card
Athletic Club
Y Yeray Doping
G Gorosabel Hip Injury
Getafe Founded: 1983
Athletic Club Founded: 1898
Match center
Getafe
W L W W L
21.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Getafe 2:1 EspanyolEspanyol
14.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Getafe 0:1 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
08.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Getafe 2:0 Real BetisReal Betis
02.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Getafe 1:0 Real MadridReal Madrid
22.02 13:00 UTC La Liga
Getafe 0:1 SevillaSevilla
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.6 Conceded
9 Points
Athletic Club
W L L D W
22.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 2:1 Real BetisReal Betis
14.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 0:3 GironaGirona
07.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 0:1 BarselonaBarselona
28.02 13:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 1:1 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
20.02 20:00 UTC La Liga
Athletic Club 2:1 ElcheElche
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyGetafe - Athletic Club

Getafe
2 matches total
Athletic Club
Getafe: 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Athletic Club: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Athletic Club 0:2 (15.05 19:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 15.05 19:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

25.10 16:30 UTC La Liga
Getafe
1:0
Athletic Club
15.05 19:30 UTC La Liga
Getafe
0:2
Athletic Club
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.