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La Liga Spain

21.12.2025 13:00 UTC Match prediction

21.12.2025 13:00 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Girona - Atletico Madrid

Spain Football

Girona

0 : 3

Finished

Atletico Madrid

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Girona - Atletico Madrid December 21, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atletico Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Atletico Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.70 / X 3.88 / 2 1.73
1X2 market: Girona 20.3% / X 24.6% / Atletico Madrid 55.1%
Total 2.5: over probability 54.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%

1 20.3%

X 24.6%

2 55.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%

Over 2.5 54.0%

Under 2.5 46.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 21.12.2025 13:00 UTC

Match center

Girona - Atletico Madrid

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.73 market consensus · line only

X 3.88 market consensus · line only

1 4.71 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.20 market consensus · line only

12 1.25 market consensus · line only

1X 2.15 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.19 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.72 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.28 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.77 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.08 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.07 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	4.91 20.4%
X	3.86 25.9%
	1.75 57.1%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	4.60 21.7%	4.70 21.3%	4.93 20.3%	4.50 22.2%	4.50 22.2%	4.80 20.8%
X	3.90 25.6%	3.85 26.0%	4.12 24.3%	3.80 26.3%	3.90 25.6%	3.95 25.3%
	1.71 58.5%	1.75 57.1%	1.76 56.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.78 56.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.10 47.6%	2.09 47.9%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.02 49.5%	2.09 47.9%
yes	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.75 57.1%	1.72 58.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.71 58.5%	1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.18 84.8%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.17 85.5%	1.22 82.0%	1.21 82.6%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.28 78.1%	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.27 78.7%
home_draw	2.10 47.6%	2.19 45.7%	2.15 46.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.12 47.2%	2.20 45.5%