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La Liga
La Liga Spain
21.04.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction
21.04.2026 19:30 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Girona - Real Betis

Spain Football
Stadium Munisipal de Montilivi
Girona
Girona
2 : 3
Finished
Real Betis
Real Betis
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Real Betis — 37%

1 · Girona35.0%
X · draw28.4%
2 · Real Betis36.6%

Model estimate: win Girona 35.0%, draw 28.4%, win Real Betis 36.6%. Model favourite — Real Betis.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Girona - Real Betis April 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Girona.

Line favourite market consensus: Girona. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.42 / X 3.35 / 2 2.96
  • 1X2 market: Girona 39.3% / X 28.5% / Real Betis 32.2%
  • Glicko: Girona 35.0% / X 28.4% / Real Betis 36.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 43.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 39.4%
X 28.4%
2 32.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 51.0%
Under 2.5 49.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 28.5%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 21.04.2026 19:30 UTC
Stadium Munisipal de Montilivi (Zhirona)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Real Betis 37%
💹 Market Girona 3934%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Girona - Real Betis

Girona: Win 2.38 Girona: Draw 3.30 Real Betis Win: 3.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Girona bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Girona menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Real Betis bolshe…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:3
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
7' 7' Normal Goal | V. Tsygankov Y. Diomande Girona
9' 9' Yellow Card | Giovani Lo Celso J. Hernandez Real Betis
23' 23' Normal Goal | Marc Roca | assist/sub out: A. Ezzalzouli Real Betis
46' 46' Substitution 4 | Cucho Hernández | assist/sub out: C. Bakambu Real Betis
46' 46' Substitution 5 | Giovani Lo Celso | assist/sub out: Rodrigo Riquelme J. Hernandez Real Betis
50' 50' Yellow Card | C. Bakambu E. Molébé Real Betis
63' 63' Normal Goal | A. Ezzalzouli | assist/sub out: C. Bakambu Real Betis
66' 66' Substitution 4 | F. Beltran | assist/sub out: Joel Roca Girona
Metric Girona Real Betis SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.36 1.04 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 2 final
Shots off target 2 2 final
Shots on target 2 3 final
Udary vsego 9 7 final
Fouls soversheno 11 18 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final
Offsides 3 0 final
Girona #1 Álvaro Vallés, #4 Natan, #5 Marc Bartra, #8 Pablo Fornals, #10 A. Ezzalzouli, #14 S. Amrabat, #16 V. Gómez, #19 C. Hernandez, #20 G. Lo Celso, #21 Marc Roca, #24 Aitor Ruibal
Real Betis #4 A. Martinez, #8 F. Beltran, #12 Vitor Reis, #13 P. Gazzaniga, #14 C. Echeverri, #15 V. Tsygankov, #17 D. Blind, #18 A. Ounahi, #20 A. Witsel, #23 I. Martin, #24 A. Moreno
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Ezzalzouli Girona football.player.assists 2
A. Ezzalzouli Girona Dribling popytki 3
A. Ezzalzouli Girona Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Ezzalzouli Girona Edinoborstva vyigrano 8
A. Ezzalzouli Girona Fouls soversheno 2
A. Ezzalzouli Girona football.player.goals 1
A. Ezzalzouli Girona Seyvy 0
A. Ezzalzouli Girona football.player.minutes_played 88
A. Ezzalzouli Girona Tochnost pasov % 2
A. Ezzalzouli Girona Klyuchevye pasy 31
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Girona 38.9% 35.0% market favourite
Draw 28.8% 28.4% draw risk
Real Betis 32.3% 36.6% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.13 : 1.17
Total 2.5 Over 43.9% - Under 56.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 35.0% / 28.4% / 36.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,512 / 1,553 Girona / Real Betis
RD 74 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.96 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.6%
X 3.35 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.42 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.0%
Double chance
X2 1.56 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 65.0%
12 1.32 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 71.6%
1X 1.39 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.58 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.26 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.88 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.13 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 43.9%
Under 2.5 1.95 market consensus · value +9.4% · model 56.1%
Both teams to score
No 2.15 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.65 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.36 42.4% 2.56 39.1% 2.50 40.0% 2.40 41.7% 2.38 42.0% 2.40 41.7%
X 3.40 29.4% 3.45 29.0% 3.43 29.2% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.35 29.9%
2.84 35.2% 2.78 36.0% 3.08 32.5% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.13 47.0% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.11 47.4%
yes 1.65 60.6% 1.65 60.6% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.42 70.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% — 1.25 80.0%
Over 1.75 — — 1.31 76.3%
Over 2.5 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% —
Over 3.5 3.10 32.3% — —
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 0.5 9.00 11.1% — —
Under 1.5 3.55 28.2% — —
Under 2.5 1.93 51.8% 2.01 49.8% —
Under 3.5 1.36 73.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.12 89.3% — —
Match center
Girona
Founded 1930
Real Betis
Founded 1907
Match center
Girona
D W L W D
10.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:1 Real MadridReal Madrid
06.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:0 VillarrealVillarreal
21.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Girona 0:1 OsasunaOsasuna
14.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 3:0 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
07.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:1 LevanteLevante
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
8 Points
Real Betis
D D L D L
12.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Real Betis 1:1 OsasunaOsasuna
04.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Real Betis 0:0 EspanyolEspanyol
22.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Real Betis 1:2 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
15.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Real Betis 1:1 SeltaSelta
08.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Real Betis 0:2 GetafeGetafe
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.2 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyGirona - Real Betis

Girona
2 matches total
Real Betis
Girona: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Real Betis: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Real Betis 1:3 (21.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 21.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (23.11 15:15 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 2

Match history

23.11 15:15 UTC La Liga
Girona
1:1
Real Betis
21.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Girona
1:3
Real Betis
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.