PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
La Liga
La Liga Spain
06.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
06.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Girona - Villarreal

Spain Football
Stadium Munisipal de Montilivi
Girona
Girona
1 : 0
Finished
Villarreal
Villarreal
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Villarreal — 47%

1 · Girona27.1%
X · draw26.1%
2 · Villarreal46.8%

Model estimate: win Girona 27.1%, draw 26.1%, win Villarreal 46.8%. Model favourite — Villarreal.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Girona - Villarreal April 6, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Villarreal.

Strongest: Villarreal - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.06 / X 3.49 / 2 2.29
  • 1X2 market: Girona 31.1% / X 27.3% / Villarreal 41.6%
  • Glicko: Girona 27.1% / X 26.1% / Villarreal 46.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 42.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 31.1%
X 27.3%
2 41.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 57.1%
Under 2.5 42.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 44.5%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 06.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Munisipal de Montilivi (Zhirona)

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Villarreal 47%
💹 Market Villarreal 4162%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Girona - Villarreal

Girona: Win 3.10 Girona: Draw 3.60 Villarreal Win: 2.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Girona bolshe 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Girona menshe 1.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Villarreal bolshe…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 43
min Event Player Team
12' 12' Substitution 1 | Vladyslav Vanat | assist/sub out: Abel Ruíz Girona
21' 21' Yellow Card | Santiago MouriG±o Villarreal
45+1' 45+1' Own Goal | Pau Navarro Girona
53' 53' Yellow Card | Vitor Reis Girona
70' 70' Substitution 2 | Alberto Moleiro | assist/sub out: Alfon González Villarreal
70' 70' Substitution 1 | Alberto Moleiro | assist/sub out: Alfon González Villarreal
71' 71' Substitution 3 | Santiago MouriG±o | assist/sub out: Alexander Freeman Villarreal
74' 74' Substitution 2 | Daley Blind | assist/sub out: Alejandro Francés A. Lagos Girona
Metric Girona Villarreal SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.48 0.55 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 6 final
Shots off target 3 3 final
Shots on target 2 0 final
Udary vsego 10 9 final
Fouls soversheno 8 9 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Girona #1 LuG­z JGєnior, #6 Pau Navarro, #7 Gerard Moreno, #9 G. Mikautadze, #12 R. Veiga, #14 Santi ComesaG±a, #15 S. MouriG±o, #18 P. Gueye, #19 N. PG©pG©, #20 Alberto Moleiro, #24 Pedraza
Villarreal #4 A. Martinez, #8 F. Beltran, #12 Vitor Reis, #13 P. Gazzaniga, #15 V. Tsygankov, #17 D. Blind, #18 A. Ounahi, #19 V. Vanat, #20 A. Witsel, #23 I. Martin, #24 A. Moreno
Player Team Metric SStats
Lass Kourouma Seyvy 0
A. Freeman Girona football.player.assists 0
A. Freeman Girona Dribling popytki 2
A. Freeman Girona Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Freeman Girona Edinoborstva vyigrano 2
A. Freeman Girona Seyvy 0
A. Freeman Girona football.player.minutes_played 20
A. Freeman Girona Tochnost pasov % 1
A. Freeman Girona Klyuchevye pasy 12
A. Freeman Girona Reyting (staryy) 6.9
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Girona 30.0% 27.1%
Draw 27.6% 26.1% draw risk
Villarreal 42.3% 46.8% market and model agree
xG - 1.05 : 1.47
Total 2.5 Over 42.4% - Under 57.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 27.1% / 26.1% / 46.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,489 / 1,634 Girona / Villarreal
RD 76 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.29 market consensus · weak value +7.2% · model 46.8%
X 3.49 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.06 market consensus · no value · model 27.1%
Double chance
X2 1.38 market consensus · no value · model 72.9%
12 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 73.9%
1X 1.61 market consensus · no value · model 53.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.40 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.14 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.25 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.39 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 42.4%
Under 2.5 2.22 market consensus · value +27.8% · model 57.6%
Both teams to score
No 2.37 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.53 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.94 34.0% 3.15 31.8% 3.18 31.5% 2.90 34.5% 3.10 32.3% 3.05 32.8%
X 3.50 28.6% 3.55 28.2% 3.61 27.7% 3.30 30.3% 3.60 27.8% 3.45 29.0%
2.25 44.4% 2.26 44.3% 2.36 42.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano BetVictor Marathonbet Superbet
no 2.40 41.7% 2.46 40.7% 2.40 41.7% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.45 40.8% 2.45 40.8% 2.36 42.4% 2.40 41.7%
yes 1.53 65.4% 1.55 64.5% 1.52 65.8% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.47 68.0% 1.52 65.8% 1.56 64.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano BetVictor
draw_away 1.38 72.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.33 75.2%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.62 61.7% 1.66 60.2% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.65 60.6% 1.57 63.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% — 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.75 — — 1.22 82.0%
Over 2.5 1.65 60.6% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.83 54.6% —
Over 3.5 2.60 38.5% — —
Over 4.5 4.75 21.1% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Under 2.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Under 2.75 — 2.09 47.9% —
Under 3.5 1.48 67.6% — —
Under 4.5 1.18 84.8% — —
Match center
Girona
Founded 1930
Villarreal
Founded 1923
Match center
Girona
MT M. ter Stegen Hamstring Injury
DV D. van de Beek Achilles Tendon Injury
Villarreal
JF J. Foyth Achilles Tendon Injury
LC Logan Costa Knee Injury
Girona Founded: 1930
Villarreal Founded: 1923
Match center
Girona
L W D L D
21.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Girona 0:1 OsasunaOsasuna
14.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 3:0 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
07.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:1 LevanteLevante
01.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:2 SeltaSelta
23.02 20:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 2:2 AlavesAlaves
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
5 Points
Villarreal
W D W L W
20.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 3:1 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
13.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 1:1 AlavesAlaves
08.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 2:1 ElcheElche
28.02 15:15 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 1:4 BarselonaBarselona
22.02 20:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 2:1 ValenciaValencia
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyGirona - Villarreal

Girona
2 matches total
Villarreal
Girona: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Villarreal: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Villarreal 0:5 (24.08 17:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (0:5, 24.08 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 6
6 Goals conceded 0

Match history

24.08 17:30 UTC La Liga
Girona
0:5
Villarreal
10.05 16:30 UTC La Liga
Girona
0:1
Villarreal
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.