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La Liga Spain

21.03.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction

21.03.2026 17:30 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Levante - Oviedo

Spain Football

Stadium Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Referee Jesus Gil Manzano

Capacity 25 534

Levante

4 : 2

Finished

Oviedo

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Levante — 41%

1 · Levante41.1%

X · draw27.1%

2 · Oviedo31.8%

Model estimate: win Levante 41.1%, draw 27.1%, win Oviedo 31.8%. Model favourite — Levante.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Levante - Oviedo March 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Levante.

Strongest: Levante - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.19 / X 3.30 / 2 3.44
1X2 market: Levante 43.5% / X 28.8% / Oviedo 27.6%
Glicko: Levante 41.1% / X 27.1% / Oviedo 31.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 58.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 43.5%

X 28.9%

2 27.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%

Over 2.5 44.4%

Under 2.5 55.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 43.2%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 21.03.2026 17:30 UTC

Stadium Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Referee Jesus Gil Manzano

Capacity 25,534

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Levante 41%

💹 Market Levante 4353%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Levante - Oviedo

Levante: Win 2.24 Levante: Draw 3.34 Oviedo Win: 3.54 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.74 Individualnyy total golov Levante bolshe 1.5: 2.39 Individualnyy total golov Levante menshe 1.5: 1.61 Individualnyy total golov Oviedo bolshe 0.5…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:2

Events 24

Statistics 24

Lineups 42

min Event Player Team

4' 4' Normal Goal | Iker Losada Levante

25' 25' Normal Goal | Carlos Espí Levante

38' 38' Yellow Card | E. Bailly Will Hughes Oviedo

44' 44' Normal Goal | I. Chaira | assist/sub out: Javi López Oviedo

45+3' 45+3' Penalty | F. ViG±as Oviedo

45+6' 45+6' Yellow Card | Alberto Reina Oviedo

52' 52' Normal Goal Levante

55' 55' Yellow Card | G. Almada Oviedo

Metric Levante Oviedo SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.82 1.34 final

Zablokirovannye udary 6 2 final

Shots off target 6 6 final

Shots on target 8 2 final

Udary vsego 20 10 final

Fouls soversheno 17 18 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final

Offsides 1 0 final

Levante #3 A. Matturro, #4 Dela, #8 J. A. Olasagasti, #13 Mathew Ryan, #17 V. Garcia, #18 I. Losada, #19 Carlos Espí, #20 O. Rey, #22 J. Toljan, #23 M. Sanchez, #26 K. Tunde

Oviedo #2 E. Bailly, #4 D. Costas, #5 A. Reina, #6 K. Sibo, #7 I. Chaira, #9 F. Vinas, #13 A. Escandell, #15 T. Fernández, #22 N. Vidal, #23 N. Fonseca, #25 J. Lopez

Player Team Metric SStats

P. Cortes football.player.assists 0

P. Cortes Dribling popytki 1

P. Cortes Dribling uspeshno 1

P. Cortes Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

P. Cortes Fouls na igroke 1

P. Cortes Seyvy 0

P. Cortes football.player.minutes_played 15

P. Cortes Tochnost pasov % 1

P. Cortes Klyuchevye pasy 4

P. Cortes Pasy vsego 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Levante 43.8% 41.1% market and model agree

Draw 28.7% 27.1% draw risk

Oviedo 27.5% 31.8%

xG - 1.33 : 1.14

Total 2.5 Over 58.1% - Under 41.9%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 41.1% / 27.1% / 31.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,429 / 1,407 Levante / Oviedo

RD 80 / 81 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.44 market consensus · no value · model 31.8%

X 3.31 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.19 market consensus · no value · model 41.1%

Double chance

X2 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 58.9%

12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 72.9%

1X 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 68.2%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.70 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.30 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.32 market consensus · line only

2 +1 6.61 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.14 market consensus · value +24.4% · model 58.1%

Under 2.5 1.71 market consensus · no value · model 41.9%

Both teams to score

No 1.90 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.86 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.24 44.6%
X	3.41 29.3%
	3.40 29.4%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.15 46.5%	2.21 45.3%	2.25 44.4%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.20 45.5%
X	3.25 30.8%	3.35 29.9%	3.44 29.1%	3.25 30.8%	3.30 30.3%	3.25 30.8%
	3.40 29.4%	3.45 29.0%	3.58 27.9%	3.30 30.3%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.90 52.6%	1.93 51.8%	1.87 53.5%	1.91 52.4%	1.91 52.4%	1.90 52.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.88 53.2%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.85 54.1%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%	1.62 61.7%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.62 61.7%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.30 76.9%	1.34 74.6%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.29 77.5%

Match center

Levante

Founded 1909

Oviedo

Founded 1926

Match center

Levante

UE Unai Elgezabal Knee Injury

B Brugui Knee Injury

Oviedo

LD L. Dendoncker Injury

OE O. Ejaria Injury

Levante Founded: 1909

Oviedo Founded: 1926

Match center

Levante

D D W L L

16.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Levante 1:1 Rayo Vallecano

07.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Levante 1:1 Girona

27.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Levante 2:0 Alaves

22.02 15:15 UTC La Liga

Levante 0:3 Barselona

18.02 19:00 UTC La Liga

Levante 0:1 Villarreal

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.2 Conceded

5 Points

Oviedo

W D L L D

14.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Oviedo 1:0 Valencia

09.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Oviedo 1:1 Espanyol

04.03 18:00 UTC La Liga

Oviedo 0:3 Rayo Vallecano

28.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Oviedo 0:1 Atletiko Madrid

21.02 13:00 UTC La Liga

Oviedo 3:3 Real Sociedad

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.6 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyLevante - Oviedo

Levante

1 matches total

Oviedo

Levante: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Oviedo: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Levante 2:0 (04.10 12:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (2:0, 04.10 12:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 2

Match history

04.10 12:00 UTC

La Liga

Levante

2:0

Oviedo

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.