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La Liga
La Liga Spain
27.09.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction
27.09.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Mallorca - Alaves

Spain Football
Mallorca
Mallorca
1 : 0
Finished
Alaves
Alaves

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mallorca - Alaves September 27, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mallorca.

Line favourite market consensus: Mallorca. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.39 / X 2.93 / 2 3.46
  • 1X2 market: Mallorca 39.9% / X 32.6% / Alaves 27.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 67.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 39.9%
X 32.5%
2 27.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.7%
Over 2.5 32.0%
Under 2.5 68.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 27.09.2025 16:30 UTC
Match center

Mallorca - Alaves

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.47 market consensus · line only
X 2.93 market consensus · line only
1 2.40 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.58 market consensus · line only
12 1.41 market consensus · line only
1X 1.32 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.60 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.22 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.41 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.20 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.96 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.39 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.58 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.31 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.44 41.0%
X 2.96 33.8%
3.58 27.9%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.38 42.0% 2.40 41.7% 2.45 40.8% 2.40 41.7% 2.45 40.8% 2.40 41.7%
X 2.90 34.5% 2.90 34.5% 3.11 32.2% 2.88 34.7% 2.85 35.1% 2.88 34.7%
3.40 29.4% 3.55 28.2% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.45 29.0% 3.50 28.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.57 63.7% 1.59 62.9% 1.56 64.1% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.61 62.1% 1.57 63.7%
yes 2.25 44.4% 2.38 42.0% 2.29 43.7% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.29 43.7% 2.42 41.3% 2.37 42.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.55 64.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.61 62.1% 1.62 61.7%
home_away 1.35 74.1% 1.42 70.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.41 70.9% 1.44 69.4%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.35 74.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.33 75.2%
Match center
Mallorca
L D L L D
24.09 19:30 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 0:1 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
21.09 14:15 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 1:1 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
15.09 19:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 2:3 EspanyolEspanyol
30.08 19:30 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 1:2 Real MadridReal Madrid
23.08 15:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 1:1 SeltaSelta
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.6 Conceded
2 Points
Alaves
D L W D L
24.09 17:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:1 GetafeGetafe
20.09 16:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:2 SevillaSevilla
13.09 16:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:0 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
30.08 15:00 UTC La Liga
Alaves 1:1 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
22.08 19:30 UTC La Liga
Alaves 0:1 Real BetisReal Betis
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMallorca - Alaves

Mallorca
0 matches total
Alaves
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history