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La Liga
La Liga Spain
12.04.2026 14:15 UTC Match prediction
12.04.2026 14:15 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano

Spain Futbol
Stadium Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Mallorca
Mallorca
3 : 0
Finished
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Mallorca — 38%

1 · Mallorca38.1%
X · draw28.5%
2 · Rayo Vallecano33.4%

Model estimate: win Mallorca 38.1%, draw 28.5%, win Rayo Vallecano 33.4%. Model favourite — Mallorca.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano 12 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mallorca.

Strongest: Mallorca - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.37 / X 3.20 / 2 3.15
  • 1X2 market: Mallorca 40.1% / X 29.7% / Rayo Vallecano 30.2%
  • Glicko: Mallorca 38.1% / X 28.5% / Rayo Vallecano 33.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 40.1%
X 29.7%
2 30.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 43.9%
Under 2.5 56.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: Х

Main outcome Х
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 28.7%
Total ТМ 2.5
Score 1:1

Модели не полностью совпадают, поэтому прогноз нужно сверять с рынком и линией.

Buy the full AI analysis

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Match center
Start 12.04.2026 14:15 UTC
Stadium Estadi Mallorca Son Moix (Palma de Mallorca)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Mallorca 38%
💹 Market Mallorca 4013%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano

Mallorca: Победа 2.35 Mallorca: Ничья 3.20 Rayo Vallecano Победа: 3.10 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 2.20 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.67 Индивидуальный тотал голов Mallorca больше 1.5: 2.50 Индивидуальный тотал голов Mallorca меньше 1.5: 1.50 Индивидуальный тотал голов Rayo …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
23' 23' Yellow Card | Nobel Mendy Rayo Vallecano
32' 32' Yellow Card | Florian Lejeune Yuki Karatsu Rayo Vallecano
36' 36' Normal Goal | Vedat Muriqi Mallorca
40' 40' Normal Goal | Vedat Muriqi | assist/sub out: Zito Luvumbo Mallorca
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Nobel Mendy | assist/sub out: Jorge de Frutos Rayo Vallecano
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Óscar Valentín | assist/sub out: Pathé Ismaël Ciss Rayo Vallecano
53' 53' Yellow Card | Randy Nteka Rayo Vallecano
62' 62' Substitution 1 | Zito Luvumbo | assist/sub out: Jan Virgili Mallorca
Metric Mallorca Rayo Vallecano SStats
Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.68 1.95 final
Заблокированные удары 0 5 final
Удары мимо 8 9 final
Удары в створ 4 3 final
Удары всего 12 17 final
Фолы совершено 13 11 final
Желтые карточки 1 4 final
Офсайды 2 6 final
Mallorca #1 Dani Cárdenas, #2 A. Rațiu, #4 Pedro Díaz, #11 R. Nteka, #12 Ilias Akhomach, #15 Gumbau, #18 Álvaro García, #22 A. Espino, #23 Óscar Valentín, #24 F. Lejeune, #32 N. Mendy
Rayo Vallecano #1 L. Roman, #5 Omar Mascarell, #7 V. Muriqi, #8 M. Morlanes, #10 S. Darder, #12 Samu Costa, #15 Zito Luvumbo, #20 P. Torre, #22 J. Mojica, #23 P. Maffeo, #27 D. Lopez
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Prats Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0
A. Prats Rayo Vallecano Единоборства выиграно 1
A. Prats Rayo Vallecano Сейвы 0
A. Prats Rayo Vallecano football.player.minutes_played 9
A. Prats Rayo Vallecano Ключевые пасы 3
A. Prats Rayo Vallecano Рейтинг (старый) 6.5
A. Prats Rayo Vallecano Отборы всего 2
A. Sanchez Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0
A. Sanchez Rayo Vallecano Сейвы 0
A. Sanchez Rayo Vallecano football.player.minutes_played 9
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Mallorca 41.0% 38.1% market and model agree
Draw 29.5% 28.5% draw risk
Rayo Vallecano 29.5% 33.4%
xG - 1.18 : 1.09
Total 2.5 Over 55.3% - Under 44.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 38.1% / 28.5% / 33.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,473 / 1,507 Mallorca / Rayo Vallecano
RD 74 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.15 market consensus · no value · model 33.4%
X 3.20 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.37 market consensus · no value · model 38.1%
Double chance
X2 1.58 market consensus · no value · model 62.0%
12 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 71.5%
1X 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 66.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.60 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.24 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.04 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.69 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.17 market consensus · value +19.9% · model 55.3%
Under 2.5 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 44.7%
Both teams to score
No 1.88 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
П1 2.28 43.9% 2.42 41.3% 2.45 40.8% 2.35 42.6% 2.37 42.2% 2.30 43.5%
Х 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.29 30.4% 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.10 32.3%
П2 3.15 31.8% 3.10 32.3% 3.29 30.4% 3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.10 32.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.90 52.6% 1.96 51.0% 1.88 53.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8% 1.84 54.4%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.84 54.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4% 1.88 53.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.35 74.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
ТБ 0.5 1.07 93.5% — 1.04 96.2%
ТБ 0.75 — — 1.05 95.2%
ТБ 1.0 — — 1.07 93.5%
ТБ 1.25 — — 1.21 82.6%
ТБ 1.5 1.38 72.5% — 1.35 74.1%
ТБ 1.75 — — 1.44 69.4%
ТБ 2.25 — 1.94 51.6% —
ТБ 2.5 2.15 46.5% — —
ТБ 3.5 4.00 25.0% — —
ТБ 4.5 8.00 12.5% — —
ТМ 0.5 8.00 12.5% — —
ТМ 1.5 2.95 33.9% — —
ТМ 2.25 — 1.96 51.0% —
ТМ 2.5 1.67 59.9% — —
ТМ 3.5 1.22 82.0% — —
ТМ 4.5 1.07 93.5% — —
Match center
Mallorca
Founded 1916
Rayo Vallecano
Founded 1924
Match center
Mallorca
R Raíllo Injury
MV M. Valjent Yellow Cards
Rayo Vallecano
AB Augusto Batalla Muscle Injury
FP Fran Pérez Back Injury
Mallorca Founded: 1916
Rayo Vallecano Founded: 1924
Match center
Mallorca
W L W D L
04.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 2:1 Real MadridReal Madrid
21.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 1:2 ЭльчеЭльче
15.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 2:1 EspanyolEspanyol
07.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 2:2 OsasunaOsasuna
28.02 17:30 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 0:1 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.4 Conceded
7 Points
Rayo Vallecano
L D D W D
22.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 0:1 BarselonaBarselona
16.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1:1 ЛевантеЛеванте
08.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1:1 SevillaSevilla
04.03 18:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 3:0 OviedoOviedo
28.02 13:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMallorca - Rayo Vallecano

Mallorca
3 matches total
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca: 1 (33.3%)
Draws:1 (33.3%)
Rayo Vallecano: 1 (33.4%)
Biggest win Rayo Vallecano 1:2 (11.01 13:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 11.01 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (24.05 19:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 2

Match history

11.01 13:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca
1:2
Rayo Vallecano
24.05 19:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca
0:0
Rayo Vallecano
20.10 12:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca
1:0
Rayo Vallecano
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.