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La Liga Spain

04.04.2026 14:15 UTC Match prediction

04.04.2026 14:15 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Mallorca - Real Madrid

Spain Football

Stadium Estadi Mallorca Son Moix

Referee José María Sánchez Martínez

Mallorca

2 : 1

Finished

Real Madrid

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Real Madrid — 63%

1 · Mallorca15.3%

market17%

X · draw21.3%

market22%

2 · Real Madrid ✓ Pick63.4%

market61%

Model estimate: win Mallorca 15.3%, draw 21.3%, win Real Madrid 63.4%. Model favourite — Real Madrid.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mallorca - Real Madrid April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.

Strongest: Real Madrid - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.56 / X 4.41 / 2 1.55
1X2 market: Mallorca 17.1% / X 21.6% / Real Madrid 61.4%
Glicko: Mallorca 15.3% / X 21.3% / Real Madrid 63.4%
Total 2.5: over probability 33.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 17.1%

X 21.6%

2 ✓ Pick 61.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%

Over 2.5 58.7%

Under 2.5 41.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 62.9%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 04.04.2026 14:15 UTC

Stadium Estadi Mallorca Son Moix (Palma de Mallorca)

Referee José María Sánchez Martínez

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Real Madrid 63%

💹 Market Real Madrid 6135%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Mallorca - Real Madrid

Mallorca: Win 5.75 Mallorca: Draw 4.50 Real Madrid Win: 1.53 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.62 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.30 Individualnyy total golov Mallorca bolshe 0.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Mallorca menshe 0.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Real Mad…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:1

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 45

min Event Player Team

41' 41' Normal Goal | Manu Morlanes | assist/sub out: Pablo Maffeo Matteo Pittarella Mallorca

47' 47' Yellow Card | Dean Huijsen Real Madrid

59' 59' Substitution 1 | Dean Huijsen | assist/sub out: Éder Militão Real Madrid

59' 59' Substitution 2 | Manuel Ángel | assist/sub out: Vinicius Júnior Real Madrid

60' 60' Substitution 3 | Eduardo Camavinga | assist/sub out: Jude Bellingham G. Prömel Real Madrid

66' 66' Yellow Card | Leo Román Mallorca

70' 70' Substitution 1 | Samú Costa | assist/sub out: David López Mallorca

70' 70' Substitution 2 | Manu Morlanes | assist/sub out: M. Joseph Matteo Pittarella Mallorca

Metric Mallorca Real Madrid SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.22 1.28 final

Zablokirovannye udary 1 3 final

Shots off target 3 6 final

Shots on target 2 6 final

Udary vsego 6 15 final

Fouls soversheno 16 13 final

Zheltye kartochki 4 2 final

Offsides 1 5 final

Mallorca #6 E. Camavinga, #10 K. Mbappe, #12 T. Alexander-Arnold, #13 A. Lunin, #14 A. Tchouameni, #15 Arda Güler, #18 A. Carreras, #21 B. Diaz, #22 A. Rüdiger, #24 D. Huijsen

Real Madrid #1 L. Roman, #5 Omar Mascarell, #7 V. Muriqi, #8 M. Morlanes, #10 S. Darder, #12 Samu Costa, #15 Zito Luvumbo, #20 P. Torre, #22 J. Mojica, #23 P. Maffeo, #24 M. Valjent

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Carreras Mallorca football.player.assists 0

A. Carreras Mallorca Dribling popytki 5

A. Carreras Mallorca Edinoborstva vsego 2

A. Carreras Mallorca Edinoborstva vyigrano 8

A. Carreras Mallorca Fouls soversheno 3

A. Carreras Mallorca Conceded golov 1

A. Carreras Mallorca Seyvy 0

A. Carreras Mallorca football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Carreras Mallorca Tochnost pasov % 2

A. Carreras Mallorca Klyuchevye pasy 81

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Mallorca 16.3% 15.3%

Draw 21.4% 21.3% draw risk

Real Madrid 62.3% 63.4% market and model agree

xG - 0.82 : 1.92

Total 2.5 Over 33.1% - Under 66.9%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 15.3% / 21.3% / 63.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,455 / 1,718 Mallorca / Real Madrid

RD 75 / 81 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 63.4%

X 4.41 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 5.56 market consensus · no value · model 15.3%

Double chance

X2 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 84.7%

12 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 78.7%

1X 2.45 market consensus · no value · model 36.6%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.15 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.53 market consensus · line only

2 +1 1.92 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 33.1%

Under 2.5 2.30 market consensus · weak value +53.9% · model 66.9%

Both teams to score

No 2.09 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.69 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	5.40 18.5%	5.40 18.5%	5.96 16.8%	5.00 20.0%	5.75 17.4%	5.60 17.9%
X	4.20 23.8%	4.65 21.5%	4.64 21.6%	4.00 25.0%	4.50 22.2%	4.55 22.0%
	1.54 64.9%	1.56 64.1%	1.58 63.3%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.60 62.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.10 47.6%	2.14 46.7%	2.12 47.2%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.07 48.3%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.09 47.9%
yes	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.66 60.2%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.66 60.2%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.14 87.7%	1.16 86.2%	1.14 87.7%	1.14 87.7%	1.18 84.8%	1.10 90.9%
home_away	1.17 85.5%	1.23 81.3%	1.22 82.0%	1.18 84.8%	1.21 82.6%	1.17 85.5%
home_draw	2.40 41.7%	2.54 39.4%	2.40 41.7%	2.38 42.0%	2.45 40.8%	2.50 40.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.03 97.1%	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.07 93.5%
Over 1.5	1.20 83.3%	—	1.16 86.2%
Over 2.5	1.62 61.7%	—	—
Over 2.75	—	1.84 54.4%	—
Over 3.0	—	2.04 49.0%	—
Over 3.5	2.55 39.2%	—	—
Over 4.5	4.50 22.2%	—	—
Under 0.5	11.00 9.1%	—	—
Under 1.5	4.50 22.2%	—	—
Under 2.5	2.25 44.4%	—	—
Under 2.75	—	2.06 48.5%	—
Under 3.0	—	1.86 53.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.50 66.7%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.20 83.3%	—	—

Match center

Mallorca

Founded 1916

Real Madrid

Founded 1902

Match center

Mallorca

R Raíllo Injury

LB L. Bergström Injury

Real Madrid

FM F. Mendy Hamstring Injury

TC T. Courtois Thigh Injury

Mallorca Founded: 1916

Real Madrid Founded: 1902

Match center

Mallorca

L W D L L

21.03 13:00 UTC La Liga

Mallorca 1:2 Elche

15.03 13:00 UTC La Liga

Mallorca 2:1 Espanyol

07.03 13:00 UTC La Liga

Mallorca 2:2 Osasuna

28.02 17:30 UTC La Liga

Mallorca 0:1 Real Sociedad

22.02 17:30 UTC La Liga

Mallorca 0:2 Selta

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.6 Conceded

4 Points

Real Madrid

W W W L L

22.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 3:2 Atletiko Madrid

14.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 4:1 Elche

06.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 2:1 Selta

02.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 0:1 Getafe

21.02 17:30 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 1:2 Osasuna

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.4 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMallorca - Real Madrid

Mallorca

2 matches total

Real Madrid

Mallorca: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Real Madrid: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Real Madrid 1:2 (30.08 19:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 30.08 19:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 4

4 Goals conceded 2

Match history

30.08 19:30 UTC

La Liga

Mallorca

1:2

Real Madrid

14.05 19:30 UTC

La Liga

Mallorca

1:2

Real Madrid

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.