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La Liga
La Liga Spain
21.04.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
21.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Mallorca - Valencia

Spain Football
Stadium Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Mallorca
Mallorca
1 : 1
Finished
Valencia
Valencia
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Valencia — 37%

1 · Mallorca35.0%
X · draw27.8%
2 · Valencia37.2%

Model estimate: win Mallorca 35.0%, draw 27.8%, win Valencia 37.2%. Model favourite — Valencia.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mallorca - Valencia April 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mallorca.

Line favourite market consensus: Mallorca. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.56 / X 3.14 / 2 2.92
  • 1X2 market: Mallorca 37.1% / X 30.3% / Valencia 32.5%
  • Glicko: Mallorca 35.0% / X 27.8% / Valencia 37.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 80.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 37.1%
X 30.3%
2 32.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 44.6%
Under 2.5 55.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 29.0%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 21.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Stadium Estadi Mallorca Son Moix (Palma de Mallorca)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Valencia 37%
💹 Market Mallorca 3714%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Mallorca - Valencia

Mallorca: Win 2.50 Mallorca: Draw 3.10 Valencia Win: 2.80 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Mallorca bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Mallorca menshe 1.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Valencia bo…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 4
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
11' 11' Substitution 1 | Thierry Correia | assist/sub out: Renzo Saravia A. Moreno Valencia
41' 41' Yellow Card | Stole Dimitrievski Valencia
49' 49' Normal Goal | Samú Costa | assist/sub out: Sergi Darder Mallorca
52' 52' Yellow Card | Guido Rodríguez N. Elvedi Valencia
Metric Mallorca Valencia SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.82 1.68 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 3 final
Shots off target 7 4 final
Shots on target 8 3 final
Udary vsego 20 10 final
Fouls soversheno 9 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final
Offsides 4 2 final
Mallorca #1 S. Dimitrievski, #2 G. Rodriguez, #5 C. Tarrega, #6 U. Sadiq, #12 T. Rendall, #14 J. Gaya, #15 L. Beltran, #16 D. Lopez, #17 L. Ramazani, #18 Pepelu, #23 F. Ugrinic
Valencia #1 L. Roman, #5 Omar Mascarell, #7 V. Muriqi, #8 M. Morlanes, #10 S. Darder, #11 T. Asano, #12 Samu Costa, #20 P. Torre, #22 J. Mojica, #23 P. Maffeo, #24 M. Valjent
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Almeida Mallorca Seyvy 0
A. Danjuma Mallorca football.player.assists 0
A. Danjuma Mallorca Dribling uspeshno 1
A. Danjuma Mallorca Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Danjuma Mallorca Edinoborstva vyigrano 2
A. Danjuma Mallorca Seyvy 0
A. Danjuma Mallorca football.player.minutes_played 30
A. Danjuma Mallorca Tochnost pasov % 2
A. Danjuma Mallorca Klyuchevye pasy 8
A. Danjuma Mallorca Reyting (staryy) 6.3
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Mallorca 37.4% 35.0% market favourite
Draw 30.3% 27.8% draw risk
Valencia 32.4% 37.2% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.16 : 1.21
Total 2.5 Over 80.7% - Under 19.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 35.0% / 27.8% / 37.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,487 / 1,487 Mallorca / Valencia
RD 73 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.92 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 37.2%
X 3.14 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.56 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.0%
Double chance
X2 1.50 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 65.0%
12 1.35 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 72.2%
1X 1.41 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 62.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.52 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.19 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.84 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.23 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.14 market consensus · weak value +72.7% · model 80.7%
Under 2.5 1.72 market consensus · no value · model 19.3%
Both teams to score
No 1.91 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.83 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.55 39.2% 2.49 40.2% 2.68 37.3% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.60 38.5%
X 3.05 32.8% 3.20 31.3% 3.23 31.0% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3%
2.84 35.2% 3.05 32.8% 3.00 33.3% 2.88 34.7% 2.90 34.5% 2.92 34.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.89 52.9%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.81 55.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.48 67.6% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.44 69.4%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.08 92.6% — 1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0 — — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25 — — 1.20 83.3%
Over 1.5 1.38 72.5% — 1.33 75.2%
Over 1.75 — — 1.43 69.9%
Over 2.25 — 1.96 51.0% —
Over 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Over 3.5 3.80 26.3% — —
Over 4.5 7.50 13.3% — —
Under 0.5 7.50 13.3% — —
Under 1.5 3.00 33.3% — —
Under 2.25 — 1.92 52.1% —
Under 2.5 1.70 58.8% — —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.08 92.6% — —
Match center
Mallorca
Founded 1916
Valencia
Founded 1919
Match center
Mallorca
W W L W D
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Mallorca 3:0 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
04.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 2:1 Real MadridReal Madrid
21.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 1:2 ElcheElche
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Mallorca 2:1 EspanyolEspanyol
07.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca 2:2 OsasunaOsasuna
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
10 Points
Valencia
L L W L W
11.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Valencia 0:1 ElcheElche
05.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Valencia 2:3 SeltaSelta
21.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Valencia 2:0 SevillaSevilla
14.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Valencia 0:1 OviedoOviedo
08.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Valencia 3:2 AlavesAlaves
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMallorca - Valencia

Mallorca
1 matches total
Valencia
Mallorca: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Valencia: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 19.12 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (19.12 20:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

19.12 20:00 UTC La Liga
Mallorca
1:1
Valencia
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.