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La Liga
La Liga Spain
26.04.2026 14:15 UTC Match prediction Prediction
26.04.2026 14:15 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Oviedo - Elche

Spain Football
Stadium Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
Capacity 30 500
Oviedo
Oviedo
1 : 2
Finished
Elche
Elche
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Oviedo — 37%

1 · Oviedo36.7%
X · draw27.3%
2 · Elche36.1%

Model estimate: win Oviedo 36.7%, draw 27.3%, win Elche 36.1%. Model favourite — Oviedo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Oviedo - Elche April 26, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Oviedo.

Strongest: Oviedo - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.31 / X 3.23 / 2 3.11
  • 1X2 market: Oviedo 40.6% / X 29.1% / Elche 30.3%
  • Glicko: Oviedo 36.7% / X 27.3% / Elche 36.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 78.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.4%
1 40.7%
X 29.1%
2 30.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 45.4%
Under 2.5 54.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 27.8%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:2

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 26.04.2026 14:15 UTC
Stadium Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere (Oviedo)
Capacity 30,500

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Oviedo 37%
💹 Market Oviedo 4062%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Oviedo - Elche

Oviedo: Win 2.25 Oviedo: Draw 3.20 Elche Win: 3.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Oviedo bolshe 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Oviedo menshe 1.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Elche bolshe 0.5: 1.40…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 16
Statistics 26
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
6' 6' Normal Goal | Pedro Bigas | assist/sub out: Marc Aguado P. Bigas Elche
16' 16' Normal Goal | G. Villar | assist/sub out: Álvaro Rodriguez G. Villar Elche
46' 46' Substitution 1 | K. Sibo | assist/sub out: T. Fernández K. Sibo Oviedo
58' 58' Substitution 2 | R. Alhassane | assist/sub out: S. Cazorla Abdel Rahim Oviedo
58' 58' Substitution 3 | H. Hassan | assist/sub out: T. Borbas H. Hassan Oviedo
62' 62' Substitution 1 | Héctor Fort | assist/sub out: Tete Morente H. Fort Elche
63' 63' Yellow Card | N. Fonseca N. Fonseca Oviedo
65' 65' Substitution 4 | D. Carmo | assist/sub out: J. Lopez David Carmo Oviedo
Metric Oviedo Elche SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.99 0.4 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 0 final
Shots off target 5 0 final
Shots on target 3 4 final
Udary vsego 12 4 final
Fouls soversheno 21 14 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 0 final
Oviedo #3 Abdel Rahim, #7 I. Chaira, #9 F. Vinas, #13 A. Escandell, #23 N. Fonseca, #5 A. Reina, #6 K. Sibo, #16 David Carmo, #4 D. Costas, #10 H. Hassan, #22 N. Vidal
Elche #1 M. Dituro, #3 A. Pedrosa, #14 A. Febas, #20 A. Rodriguez, #6 P. Bigas, #8 M. Aguado, #9 Andre Silva, #12 G. Villar, #22 D. Affengruber, #42 Buba Sangare, #39 H. Fort
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Escandell Oviedo football.player.assists 1
A. Escandell Oviedo Seyvy 2
A. Escandell Oviedo football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Escandell Oviedo Tochnost pasov % 1
A. Escandell Oviedo Klyuchevye pasy 26
A. Escandell Oviedo Reyting 2
A. Escandell Oviedo Reyting (staryy) 7
A. Escandell Oviedo Otbory vsego 19
A. Reina Oviedo football.player.assists 0
A. Reina Oviedo Dribling popytki 4
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Oviedo 40.7% 36.7% market and model agree
Draw 29.1% 27.3% draw risk
Elche 30.2% 36.1%
xG - 1.23 : 1.22
Total 2.5 Over 78.3% - Under 21.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.06
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 36.7% / 27.3% / 36.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,437 / 1,475 Oviedo / Elche
RD 76 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.11 market consensus · no value · model 36.1%
X 3.23 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.31 market consensus · no value · model 36.7%
Double chance
X2 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 63.3%
12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 72.7%
1X 1.36 market consensus · no value · model 64.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.62 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.26 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.01 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.67 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.09 market consensus · weak value +63.7% · model 78.3%
Under 2.5 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 21.7%
Both teams to score
No 1.93 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.28 43.9% 2.43 41.2% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5%
X 3.25 30.8% 3.36 29.8% 3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4%
3.10 32.3% 3.27 30.6% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.10 32.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.93 51.8% 1.92 52.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.60 62.5% 1.63 61.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.57 63.7%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.32 75.8% 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.35 74.1% 1.39 71.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.07 93.5% 1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75 — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0 — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25 — 1.19 84.0%
Over 1.5 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2%
Over 1.75 — 1.41 70.9%
Over 2.0 — 1.55 64.5%
Over 2.25 — 1.81 55.3%
Over 2.5 2.10 47.6% —
Over 3.5 3.75 26.7% —
Over 4.5 7.50 13.3% —
Under 0.5 8.00 12.5% —
Under 1.5 3.10 32.3% —
Under 2.5 1.73 57.8% —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% —
Under 4.5 1.08 92.6% —
Match center
Oviedo
Founded 1926
Elche
Founded 1923
Match center
Oviedo
D W W L W
23.04 19:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 1:1 VillarrealVillarreal
12.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 3:0 SeltaSelta
05.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 1:0 SevillaSevilla
21.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 2:4 LevanteLevante
14.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 1:0 ValenciaValencia
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Elche
W W W L L
22.04 17:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 3:2 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
11.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:0 ValenciaValencia
21.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 2:1 MallorcaMallorca
14.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:4 Real MadridReal Madrid
08.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Elche 1:2 VillarrealVillarreal
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyOviedo - Elche

Oviedo
1 matches total
Elche
Oviedo: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Elche: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Elche 0:1 (21.09 16:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 21.09 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

21.09 16:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo
0:1
Elche
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.