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La Liga
La Liga Spain
05.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Oviedo - Sevilla

Spain Football
Stadium Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
Capacity 30 500
Oviedo
Oviedo
1 : 0
Finished
Sevilla
Sevilla
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Sevilla — 39%

1 · Oviedo32.0%
X · draw28.6%
2 · Sevilla39.4%

Model estimate: win Oviedo 32.0%, draw 28.6%, win Sevilla 39.4%. Model favourite — Sevilla.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Oviedo - Sevilla April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Oviedo.

Line favourite market consensus: Oviedo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.76 / X 2.92 / 2 2.89
  • 1X2 market: Oviedo 34.5% / X 32.5% / Sevilla 33.0%
  • Glicko: Oviedo 32.0% / X 28.6% / Sevilla 39.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 34.5%
X 32.6%
2 32.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.4%
Over 2.5 37.2%
Under 2.5 62.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 30.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Stadium Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere (Oviedo)
Capacity 30,500

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Sevilla 39%
💹 Market Oviedo 3451%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Oviedo - Sevilla

Oviedo: Win 2.70 Oviedo: Draw 3.00 Sevilla Win: 2.88 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.50 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Oviedo bolshe 0.5: 1.40 Individualnyy total golov Oviedo menshe 0.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Sevilla bolshe 0.5: …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 19
Statistics 26
Lineups 43
min Event Player Team
13' 13' Yellow Card | Federico ViG±as Oviedo
32' 32' Normal Goal | Federico ViG±as Oviedo
38' 38' Red Card | Tanguy Nianzou Sevilla
43' 43' Yellow Card | José Ángel Carmona Sevilla
46' 46' Substitution 1 | José Ángel Carmona | assist/sub out: Andres Castrin Sevilla
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Djibril Sow | assist/sub out: Manu Bueno B. White Sevilla
53' 53' Yellow Card | Javi López Oviedo
54' 54' Yellow Card | Kike Salas Sevilla
Metric Oviedo Sevilla SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.48 0.66 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 2 final
Shots off target 2 7 final
Shots on target 4 0 final
Udary vsego 7 9 final
Fouls soversheno 11 12 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 5 3 final
Oviedo #1 O. Vlachodimos, #2 José Ángel Carmona, #4 Kike Salas, #5 T. Nianzou, #6 N. Gudelj, #9 A. Adams, #11 R. Vargas, #16 Juanlu Sánchez, #19 B. Mendy, #20 D. Sow, #36 Oso
Sevilla #2 E. Bailly, #5 A. Reina, #6 K. Sibo, #7 I. Chaira, #9 F. Vinas, #12 D. Calvo, #13 A. Escandell, #15 T. Fernández, #22 N. Vidal, #23 N. Fonseca, #25 J. Lopez
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Adams Oviedo football.player.assists 0
A. Adams Oviedo Dribling popytki 5
A. Adams Oviedo Dribling uspeshno 1
A. Adams Oviedo Edinoborstva vyigrano 15
A. Adams Oviedo Seyvy 0
A. Adams Oviedo football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Adams Oviedo Klyuchevye pasy 15
A. Adams Oviedo Reyting (staryy) 5.9
A. Adams Oviedo Shots on target 2
A. Adams Oviedo Otbory vsego 9
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Oviedo 34.2% 32.0% market favourite
Draw 32.9% 28.6% draw risk
Sevilla 32.9% 39.4% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.05 : 1.20
Total 2.5 Over 51.6% - Under 48.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.07
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 32.0% / 28.6% / 39.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,395 / 1,449 Oviedo / Sevilla
RD 79 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.89 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 39.4%
X 2.92 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.76 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 32.0%
Double chance
X2 1.44 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 68.0%
12 1.39 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 71.4%
1X 1.41 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 60.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.46 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.15 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.74 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.34 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.55 market consensus · value +31.5% · model 51.6%
Under 2.5 1.51 market consensus · no value · model 48.5%
Both teams to score
No 1.73 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.03 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.68 37.3% 2.72 36.8% 2.86 35.0% 2.70 37.0% 2.70 37.0% 2.75 36.4%
X 2.92 34.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.02 33.1% 2.80 35.7% 3.00 33.3% 2.92 34.3%
2.84 35.2% 2.93 34.1% 3.00 33.3% 2.88 34.7% 2.88 34.7% 2.90 34.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.70 58.8% 1.77 56.5% 1.71 58.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.69 59.2%
yes 2.10 47.6% 2.06 48.5% 2.04 49.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.45 69.0% 1.48 67.6% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.40 71.4%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.11 90.1% — 1.07 93.5%
Over 0.75 — — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.0 — — 1.13 88.5%
Over 1.25 — — 1.31 76.3%
Over 1.5 1.53 65.4% — —
Over 2.0 — 1.95 51.3% —
Over 2.25 — 2.07 48.3% —
Over 2.5 2.55 39.2% — —
Over 3.5 5.00 20.0% — —
Over 4.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 0.5 6.25 16.0% — —
Under 1.5 2.45 40.8% — —
Under 2.0 — 1.95 51.3% —
Under 2.25 — 1.83 54.6% —
Under 2.5 1.50 66.7% — —
Under 3.5 1.17 85.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.04 96.2% — —
Match center
Oviedo
Founded 1926
Sevilla
Founded 1890
Match center
Oviedo
LD L. Dendoncker Injury
OE O. Ejaria Injury
Sevilla
M Marcão Knee Injury
CA César Azpilicueta Injury
Oviedo Founded: 1926
Sevilla Founded: 1890
Match center
Oviedo
L W D L L
21.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 2:4 LevanteLevante
14.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 1:0 ValenciaValencia
09.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 1:1 EspanyolEspanyol
04.03 18:00 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 0:3 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
28.02 20:00 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 0:1 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
4 Points
Sevilla
L L D D W
21.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 0:2 ValenciaValencia
15.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 2:5 BarselonaBarselona
08.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 1:1 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
01.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 2:2 Real BetisReal Betis
22.02 13:00 UTC La Liga
Sevilla 1:0 GetafeGetafe
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
2.0 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyOviedo - Sevilla

Oviedo
1 matches total
Sevilla
Oviedo: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Sevilla: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Sevilla 0:4 (14.12 13:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (0:4, 14.12 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 0

Match history

14.12 13:00 UTC La Liga
Oviedo
0:4
Sevilla
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.