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La Liga
La Liga Spain
23.04.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction
23.04.2026 19:30 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Oviedo - Villarreal

Spain Football
Stadium Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
Capacity 30 500
Oviedo
Oviedo
1 : 1
Finished
Villarreal
Villarreal
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Villarreal — 49%

1 · Oviedo24.4%
X · draw26.3%
2 · Villarreal49.3%

Model estimate: win Oviedo 24.4%, draw 26.3%, win Villarreal 49.3%. Model favourite — Villarreal.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Oviedo - Villarreal April 23, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Villarreal.

Strongest: Villarreal - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.51 / X 3.32 / 2 2.13
  • 1X2 market: Oviedo 27.1% / X 28.5% / Villarreal 44.5%
  • Glicko: Oviedo 24.4% / X 26.3% / Villarreal 49.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.6%
1 27.0%
X 28.5%
2 44.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 49.0%
Under 2.5 51.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 47.2%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 23.04.2026 19:30 UTC
Stadium Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere (Oviedo)
Capacity 30,500

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Villarreal 49%
💹 Market Villarreal 4446%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Oviedo - Villarreal

Oviedo: Win 3.40 Oviedo: Draw 3.40 Villarreal Win: 2.15 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Oviedo bolshe 0.5: 1.40 Individualnyy total golov Oviedo menshe 0.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Villarreal bolshe…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 0
Statistics 24
Lineups 43
Metric Oviedo Villarreal SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.8 1.39 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 1 final
Shots off target 8 3 final
Shots on target 4 3 final
Udary vsego 15 7 final
Fouls soversheno 9 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 1 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Oviedo #6 Pau Navarro, #10 Dani Parejo, #11 Alfon GonzGЎlez, #12 R. Veiga, #15 S. MouriG±o, #17 T. Buchanan, #18 P. Gueye, #19 N. PG©pG©, #21 T. Oluwaseyi, #23 Sergi Cardona, #25 Arnau Tenas
Villarreal #2 E. Bailly, #5 A. Reina, #6 K. Sibo, #7 I. Chaira, #9 F. Vinas, #11 S. Colombatto, #12 D. Calvo, #13 A. Escandell, #15 T. Fernández, #22 N. Vidal, #25 J. Lopez
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Escandell Villarreal football.player.assists 0
A. Escandell Villarreal Seyvy 1
A. Escandell Villarreal football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Escandell Villarreal Klyuchevye pasy 29
A. Escandell Villarreal Reyting 2
A. Escandell Villarreal Reyting (staryy) 7.2
A. Escandell Villarreal Otbory vsego 17
A. Reina Villarreal football.player.assists 0
A. Reina Villarreal Dribling popytki 2
A. Reina Villarreal Dribling uspeshno 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Oviedo 26.5% 24.4%
Draw 28.4% 26.3% draw risk
Villarreal 45.1% 49.3% market and model agree
xG - 0.95 : 1.48
Total 2.5 Over 37.5% - Under 62.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 24.4% / 26.3% / 49.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,431 / 1,626 Oviedo / Villarreal
RD 77 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.13 market consensus · weak value +5.1% · model 49.3%
X 3.32 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.51 market consensus · no value · model 24.4%
Double chance
X2 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 75.6%
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 73.7%
1X 1.71 market consensus · no value · model 50.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.31 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.08 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.09 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.22 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.95 market consensus · no value · model 37.5%
Under 2.5 1.87 market consensus · value +16.9% · model 62.5%
Both teams to score
No 2.03 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.73 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
3.40 29.4% 3.74 26.7% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.50 28.6%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.20 31.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4%
2.12 47.2% 2.20 45.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.99 50.3% 2.04 49.0%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.30 76.9% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.25 80.0%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.25 — 1.16 86.2%
Over 1.5 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75 — 1.36 73.5%
Over 2.0 — 1.46 68.5%
Over 2.25 — 1.70 58.8%
Over 2.5 1.91 52.4% —
Over 3.5 3.25 30.8% —
Over 4.5 6.25 16.0% —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% —
Under 1.5 3.40 29.4% —
Under 2.5 1.85 54.1% —
Under 3.5 1.33 75.2% —
Under 4.5 1.11 90.1% —
Match center
Oviedo
Founded 1926
Villarreal
Founded 1923
Match center
Oviedo
W W L W D
12.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 3:0 SeltaSelta
05.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 1:0 SevillaSevilla
21.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 2:4 LevanteLevante
14.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 1:0 ValenciaValencia
09.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 1:1 EspanyolEspanyol
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Villarreal
W L W D W
12.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 2:1 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
06.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 0:1 GironaGirona
20.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 3:1 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
13.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 1:1 AlavesAlaves
08.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Villarreal 2:1 ElcheElche
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyOviedo - Villarreal

Oviedo
1 matches total
Villarreal
Oviedo: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Villarreal: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Villarreal 0:2 (15.08 19:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 15.08 19:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

15.08 19:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo
0:2
Villarreal
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.