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La Liga
La Liga Spain
23.04.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
23.04.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Rayo Vallecano - Espanyol

Spain Football
Stadium Kampo-de-Valekas
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
1 : 0
Finished
Espanyol
Espanyol
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Rayo Vallecano — 42%

1 · Rayo Vallecano42.3%
X · draw28.3%
2 · Espanyol29.4%

Model estimate: win Rayo Vallecano 42.3%, draw 28.3%, win Espanyol 29.4%. Model favourite — Rayo Vallecano.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rayo Vallecano - Espanyol April 23, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rayo Vallecano.

Strongest: Rayo Vallecano - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.06 / X 3.26 / 2 3.81
  • 1X2 market: Rayo Vallecano 46.0% / X 29.1% / Espanyol 24.9%
  • Glicko: Rayo Vallecano 42.3% / X 28.3% / Espanyol 29.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 46.0%
X 29.1%
2 24.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 44.3%
Under 2.5 55.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 5/5
Confidence 52.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 23.04.2026 18:00 UTC
Stadium Kampo-de-Valekas (Madrid)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Rayo Vallecano 42%
💹 Market Rayo Vallecano 4603%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Rayo Vallecano - Espanyol

Rayo Vallecano: Win 2.05 Rayo Vallecano: Draw 3.25 Espanyol Win: 3.90 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Rayo Vallecano bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Rayo Vallecano menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
Metric Rayo Vallecano Espanyol SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.6 1.96 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 5 final
Shots off target 9 6 final
Shots on target 6 4 final
Udary vsego 17 15 final
Fouls soversheno 12 15 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 4 final
Offsides 3 0 final
Rayo Vallecano #5 Fernando Calero, #6 L. Cabrera, #8 Edu Expósito, #9 Roberto Fernández, #10 Pol Lozano, #11 Pere Milla, #13 M. Dmitrović, #19 Kike García, #22 Carlos Romero, #23 O. El Hilali, #24 T. Dolan
Espanyol #1 Dani Cárdenas, #2 A. Rațiu, #3 Pep Chavarría, #4 Pedro Díaz, #6 P. Ciss, #7 Isi Palazón, #9 Alemão, #19 Jorge de Frutos, #22 A. Espino, #23 Óscar Valentín, #33 J. Vertrouwd
Player Team Metric SStats
GЃngel FortuG±o Rayo Vallecano Seyvy 0
Antoniu Roca Rayo Vallecano Seyvy 0
C. Ngonge Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0
C. Ngonge Rayo Vallecano Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
C. Ngonge Rayo Vallecano Seyvy 0
C. Ngonge Rayo Vallecano football.player.minutes_played 12
C. Ngonge Rayo Vallecano Tochnost pasov % 1
C. Ngonge Rayo Vallecano Klyuchevye pasy 4
C. Ngonge Rayo Vallecano Pasy vsego 1
C. Ngonge Rayo Vallecano Reyting (staryy) 6.7
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Rayo Vallecano 46.3% 42.3% market and model agree
Draw 29.2% 28.3% draw risk
Espanyol 24.5% 29.4%
xG - 1.26 : 1.00
Total 2.5 Over 51.5% - Under 48.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 42.3% / 28.3% / 29.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,493 / 1,471 Rayo Vallecano / Espanyol
RD 73 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.81 market consensus · no value · model 29.4%
X 3.26 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.06 market consensus · no value · model 42.3%
Double chance
X2 1.76 market consensus · no value · model 57.7%
12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 71.7%
1X 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 70.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.77 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.35 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.61 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.14 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.15 market consensus · value +10.7% · model 51.5%
Under 2.5 1.71 market consensus · no value · model 48.5%
Both teams to score
No 1.87 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.88 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.00 50.0% 2.14 46.7% 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8%
X 3.20 31.3% 3.31 30.2% 3.30 30.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.15 31.8% 3.40 29.4%
3.90 25.6% 4.04 24.8% 3.75 26.7% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6% 3.75 26.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.82 55.0% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.75 57.1% 1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.73 57.8%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.30 76.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.34 74.6% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.07 93.5% 1.04 96.2%
Over 0.75 — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.0 — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.25 — 1.21 82.6%
Over 1.5 1.38 72.5% 1.35 74.1%
Over 1.75 — 1.44 69.4%
Over 2.0 — 1.59 62.9%
Over 2.25 — 1.86 53.8%
Over 2.5 2.10 47.6% —
Over 3.5 3.80 26.3% —
Over 4.5 7.50 13.3% —
Under 0.5 8.00 12.5% —
Under 1.5 3.00 33.3% —
Under 2.5 1.70 58.8% —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% —
Under 4.5 1.08 92.6% —
Match center
Rayo Vallecano
Founded 1924
Espanyol
Founded 1900
Match center
Rayo Vallecano
L L D D W
12.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 0:3 MallorcaMallorca
22.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 0:1 BarselonaBarselona
16.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1:1 LevanteLevante
08.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1:1 SevillaSevilla
04.03 18:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 3:0 OviedoOviedo
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
5 Points
Espanyol
L D L L D
11.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Espanyol 1:4 BarselonaBarselona
04.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Espanyol 0:0 Real BetisReal Betis
21.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Espanyol 1:2 GetafeGetafe
15.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Espanyol 1:2 MallorcaMallorca
09.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Espanyol 1:1 OviedoOviedo
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyRayo Vallecano - Espanyol

Rayo Vallecano
2 matches total
Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Espanyol: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Espanyol 0:4 (04.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (0:4, 04.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 5
5 Goals conceded 0

Match history

07.12 17:30 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
0:1
Espanyol
04.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
0:4
Espanyol
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.