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La Liga
La Liga Spain
26.04.2026 12:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
26.04.2026 12:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad

Spain Football
Stadium Kampo-de-Valekas
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
3 : 3
Finished
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Real Sociedad — 37%

1 · Rayo Vallecano34.8%
X · draw28.4%
2 · Real Sociedad36.8%

Model estimate: win Rayo Vallecano 34.8%, draw 28.4%, win Real Sociedad 36.8%. Model favourite — Real Sociedad.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad April 26, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rayo Vallecano.

Line favourite market consensus: Rayo Vallecano. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.38 / X 3.25 / 2 2.98
  • 1X2 market: Rayo Vallecano 39.5% / X 28.9% / Real Sociedad 31.6%
  • Glicko: Rayo Vallecano 34.8% / X 28.4% / Real Sociedad 36.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 81.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%
1 39.5%
X 28.9%
2 31.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.4%
Over 2.5 48.4%
Under 2.5 51.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 8/8
Confidence 28.6%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 26.04.2026 12:00 UTC
Stadium Kampo-de-Valekas (Madrid)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Real Sociedad 37%
💹 Market Rayo Vallecano 3948%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad

Rayo Vallecano: Win 2.35 Rayo Vallecano: Draw 3.30 Real Sociedad Win: 2.80 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Rayo Vallecano bolshe 1.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Rayo Vallecano menshe 1.5: 1.57 Individua…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:3
Events 29
Statistics 26
Lineups 92
min Event Player Team
22' 22' Normal Goal | M. Oyarzabal | assist/sub out: A. Barrenetxea M. Oyarzabal Real Sociedad
24' 24' Goal Disallowed - handball | C. Martin Carlos Martín Rayo Vallecano
29' 29' Yellow Card | Isi Palazón Isi Palazón Rayo Vallecano
30' 30' Normal Goal | Sergio Camello Sergio Camello Rayo Vallecano
45+1' 45+1' Yellow Card | S. Gomez Sergio Gómez Real Sociedad
49' 49' Yellow Card | P. Ciss P. Ciss Rayo Vallecano
56' 56' Substitution 1 | T. Kubo | assist/sub out: L. Sucic T. Kubo Real Sociedad
56' 56' Substitution 2 | A. Barrenetxea | assist/sub out: P. Marin Barrenetxea Real Sociedad
Metric Rayo Vallecano Real Sociedad SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.38 2.23 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 2 final
Shots off target 8 3 final
Shots on target 9 8 final
Udary vsego 24 13 final
Fouls soversheno 14 12 final
Red cards 1 0 final
Zheltye kartochki 6 4 final
Rayo Vallecano #1 GЃlex Remiro, #2 J. Aramburu, #7 Barrenetxea, #8 BeG±at Turrientes, #9 O. G“skarsson, #10 M. Oyarzabal, #14 T. Kubo, #16 D. Caleta-Car, #17 Sergio GGіmez, #18 Carlos Soler, #31 Jon MartG­n
Real Sociedad #1 Dani Cárdenas, #2 A. Rațiu, #3 Pep Chavarría, #6 P. Ciss, #7 Isi Palazón, #10 Sergio Camello, #12 Ilias Akhomach, #14 Carlos Martín, #17 Unai López, #24 F. Lejeune, #32 N. Mendy
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Rațiu Rayo Vallecano football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Zakharyan Rayo Vallecano Seyvy 0
Aihen MuG±oz Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0
Aihen MuG±oz Rayo Vallecano Dribling popytki 1
Aihen MuG±oz Rayo Vallecano Edinoborstva vyigrano 2
Aihen MuG±oz Rayo Vallecano Seyvy 0
Aihen MuG±oz Rayo Vallecano Reyting (staryy) 6.5
Aihen MuG±oz Rayo Vallecano Bloki 1
Aihen MuG±oz Rayo Vallecano Perekhvaty 1
Aitor Fraga Rayo Vallecano Seyvy 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Rayo Vallecano 39.5% 34.8% market favourite
Draw 29.1% 28.4% draw risk
Real Sociedad 31.4% 36.8% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.13 : 1.17
Total 2.5 Over 81.5% - Under 18.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 34.8% / 28.4% / 36.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,522 Rayo Vallecano / Real Sociedad
RD 72 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.98 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.8%
X 3.25 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.38 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 34.8%
Double chance
X2 1.57 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 65.2%
12 1.32 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 71.6%
1X 1.38 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.59 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.87 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.17 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.96 market consensus · weak value +59.7% · model 81.5%
Under 2.5 1.84 market consensus · no value · model 18.5%
Both teams to score
No 2.05 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.34 42.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.38 42.0% 2.35 42.6% 2.42 41.3% 2.40 41.7%
X 3.20 31.3% 3.36 29.8% 3.10 32.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3%
3.05 32.8% 3.15 31.8% 3.00 33.3% 2.80 35.7% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.05 48.8% 2.04 49.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 2.12 47.2%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.66 60.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.36 73.5% 1.41 70.9% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75 — 1.35 74.1%
Over 2.0 — 1.46 68.5%
Over 2.25 — 1.70 58.8%
Over 2.5 1.95 51.3% —
Over 3.5 3.35 29.9% —
Over 4.5 6.50 15.4% —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% —
Under 1.5 3.35 29.9% —
Under 2.5 1.83 54.6% —
Under 3.5 1.30 76.9% —
Under 4.5 1.10 90.9% —
Match center
Rayo Vallecano
Founded 1924
Real Sociedad
Founded 1909
Match center
Rayo Vallecano
W L L D D
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Rayo Vallecano 1:0 EspanyolEspanyol
12.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 0:3 MallorcaMallorca
22.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 0:1 BarselonaBarselona
16.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1:1 LevanteLevante
08.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1:1 SevillaSevilla
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.2 Conceded
5 Points
Real Sociedad
L D W L W
22.04 18:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 0:1 GetafeGetafe
11.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 3:3 AlavesAlaves
04.04 12:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 2:0 LevanteLevante
20.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 1:3 VillarrealVillarreal
15.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 3:1 OsasunaOsasuna
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyRayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad

Rayo Vallecano
1 matches total
Real Sociedad
Rayo Vallecano: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Real Sociedad: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Rayo Vallecano 1:0 (05.10 16:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 05.10 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

05.10 16:30 UTC La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
1:0
Real Sociedad
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.