La Liga Spain

21.04.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction

21.04.2026 19:30 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Real Madrid - Alaves

Spain Futbol

Stadium Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Capacity 85 454

Real Madrid

2 : 1

Finished

Alaves

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Real Madrid — 74%

1 · Real Madrid ✓ Прогноз74.0%

market77%

X · draw16.5%

market15%

2 · Alaves9.5%

market8%

Model estimate: win Real Madrid 74.0%, draw 16.5%, win Alaves 9.5%. Model favourite — Real Madrid.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Real Madrid - Alaves 21 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.

Strongest: Real Madrid - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.24 / X 6.51 / 2 11.54
1X2 market: Real Madrid 77.0% / X 14.7% / Alaves 8.3%
Glicko: Real Madrid 74.0% / X 16.5% / Alaves 9.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 49.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7%

1 ✓ Прогноз 77.0%

X 14.7%

2 8.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.3%

Over 2.5 66.7%

Under 2.5 33.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1

Agreement 8/8

Confidence 78.7%

Total ТБ 2.5

Score 2:1

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

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Match center

Start 21.04.2026 19:30 UTC

Stadium Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Capacity 85,454

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Real Madrid 74%

💹 Market Real Madrid 7697%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Real Madrid - Alaves

Real Madrid: Победа 1.22 Real Madrid: Ничья 6.50 Alaves Победа: 12.00 Общий тотал голов больше 3.5: 2.00 Общий тотал голов меньше 3.5: 1.80 Индивидуальный тотал голов Real Madrid больше 2.5: 1.83 Индивидуальный тотал голов Real Madrid меньше 2.5: 1.83 Индивидуальный тотал голов …

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:1

Events 15

Statistics 24

Lineups 44

min Event Player Team

30' 30' Normal Goal | K. Mbappe Real Madrid

35' 35' Yellow Card | A. Tchouameni B. Santamaria Real Madrid

45+2' 45+2' Substitution 1 | Éder Militão | assist/sub out: A. Rudiger T. Fernández Real Madrid

50' 50' Normal Goal | Vinicius Junior J. Bowen Real Madrid

58' 58' Substitution 2 | A. Güler | assist/sub out: Franco Mastantuono Real Madrid

58' 58' Substitution 3 | Jude Bellingham | assist/sub out: B. Diaz Real Madrid

58' 58' Substitution 3 | Denis SuГЎrez | assist/sub out: Pablo IbГЎГ±ez D. Ceballos Alaves

58' 58' Substitution 2 | Denis SuГЎrez | assist/sub out: Pablo IbГЎГ±ez D. Ceballos Alaves

Metric Real Madrid Alaves SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.62 1.76 final

Заблокированные удары 7 7 final

Удары мимо 9 7 final

Удары в створ 8 5 final

Удары всего 24 19 final

Фолы совершено 14 12 final

Желтые карточки 1 1 final

Офсайды 4 1 final

Real Madrid #3 Eder Militao, #5 J. Bellingham, #7 Vinicius Junior, #8 F. Valverde, #10 K. Mbappe, #12 T. Alexander-Arnold, #13 A. Lunin, #14 A. Tchouameni, #15 Arda Güler, #18 A. Carreras, #24 D. Huijsen

Alaves #1 Sivera, #3 Yusi, #4 Denis Suárez, #7 A. Perez, #8 Antonio Blanco, #11 Toni Martínez, #14 N. Tenaglia, #15 L. Boyé, #17 Jonny, #18 Jon Guridi, #24 Víctor Parada

Player Team Metric SStats

Aitor MaГ±as Сейвы 0

Egoitz MuГ±oz Сейвы 0

A. Perez Alaves football.player.assists 0

A. Perez Alaves Дриблинг попытки 4

A. Perez Alaves Дриблинг успешно 4

A. Perez Alaves Единоборства выиграно 14

A. Perez Alaves Фолы совершено 3

A. Perez Alaves Сейвы 0

A. Perez Alaves football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Perez Alaves Точность пасов % 4

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Real Madrid 77.9% 74.0% market and model agree

Draw 14.4% 16.5% draw risk

Alaves 7.7% 9.5%

xG - 2.34 : 0.70

Total 2.5 Over 49.5% - Under 50.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 74.0% / 16.5% / 9.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,686 / 1,468 Real Madrid / Alaves

RD 80 / 73 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 10.00 market consensus · no value · model 9.5%

X 6.51 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 74.0%

Double chance

X2 4.05 market consensus · no value · model 26.0%

12 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 83.5%

1X 1.04 market consensus · no value · model 90.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 4.02 market consensus · line only

2 -1 3.26 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.22 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.33 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.41 market consensus · no value · model 49.5%

Under 2.5 2.83 market consensus · value +43.0% · model 50.5%

Both teams to score

No 1.88 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.86 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
П1	1.23 81.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.26 79.4%
Х	6.00 16.7%	6.00 16.7%	6.60 15.2%	6.00 16.7%	6.50 15.4%	6.80 14.7%
П2	11.00 9.1%	10.00 10.0%	12.90 7.8%	10.00 10.0%	12.00 8.3%	12.00 8.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.90 52.6%	1.86 53.8%	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.87 53.5%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.87 53.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.87 53.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	4.00 25.0%	4.18 23.9%	3.80 26.3%	4.00 25.0%	4.15 24.1%	4.20 23.8%
home_away	1.11 90.1%	1.14 87.7%	1.13 88.5%	1.11 90.1%	1.12 89.3%	1.08 92.6%
home_draw	1.04 96.2%	1.04 96.2%	1.05 95.2%	1.05 95.2%	1.07 93.5%	1.03 97.1%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.03 97.1%	—	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.0	—	—	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.5	1.14 87.7%	—	1.08 92.6%
ТБ 1.75	—	—	1.11 90.1%
ТБ 2.5	1.45 69.0%	—	—
ТБ 3.0	—	1.85 54.1%	—
ТБ 3.5	2.10 47.6%	—	—
ТБ 4.5	3.45 29.0%	—	—
ТБ 5.5	6.25 16.0%	—	—
ТМ 0.5	11.00 9.1%	—	—
ТМ 1.5	5.50 18.2%	—	—
ТМ 2.5	2.70 37.0%	—	—
ТМ 3.0	—	2.03 49.3%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.70 58.8%	—	—
ТМ 4.5	1.30 76.9%	—	—
ТМ 5.5	1.11 90.1%	—	—

Match center

Real Madrid

Founded 1902

Alaves

Founded 1921

Match center

Real Madrid

D L W W W

10.04 19:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 1:1 Girona

04.04 14:15 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 1:2 Mallorca

22.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 3:2 Atletiko Madrid

14.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 4:1 Эльче

06.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 2:1 Selta

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

10 Points

Alaves

D D W D L

11.04 12:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 3:3 Real Sociedad

05.04 19:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 2:2 Osasuna

22.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Alaves 4:3 Selta

13.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 1:1 Villarreal

08.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Alaves 2:3 Valencia

1 Wins

3 Draws

1 Losses

2.4 Scored

2.4 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyReal Madrid - Alaves

Real Madrid

3 matches total

Alaves

Real Madrid: 3 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Alaves: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Real Madrid 2:1 (14.12 20:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 24.09 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

6 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 6

Match history

14.12 20:00 UTC

La Liga

Real Madrid

2:1

Alaves

13.04 14:15 UTC

La Liga

Real Madrid

1:0

Alaves

24.09 19:00 UTC

La Liga

Real Madrid

3:2

Alaves

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.