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La Liga Spain

38 round 23.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

23.05.2026 19:00 UTC 38 round

Finished

La Liga

Real Madrid - Athletic Club

Spain Football

Real Madrid

4 : 2

Finished

Athletic Club

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Real Madrid - Athletic Club May 23, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Real Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.51 / X 4.65 / 2 5.66
1X2 market: Real Madrid 62.8% / X 20.4% / Athletic Club 16.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 63.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 62.8%

X 20.4%

2 16.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%

Over 2.5 63.9%

Under 2.5 36.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Stadium Santyago Bernabeu (Madrid, Spain), vmestimost: 85454

Referee Khuan Martines Munuera (Alikante)

Start 23.05.2026 19:00 UTC

Match center

Real Madrid - Athletic Club

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Real Madrid - Atletik B, 23 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Spain po futbolu (La Liga) 2025-2026, 38 round. Real Madrid - Atletik B, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

1 1.02 Fonbet · line only

2 5.66 market consensus · line only

X 4.65 market consensus · line only

Double chance

12 1.01 Fonbet · line only

1X 1.03 Fonbet · line only

X2 2.56 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -1 3.55 Fonbet · line only

2 0 8.50 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 1.30 Fonbet · line only

1 0 1.07 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.42 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 2.85 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.00 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.52 65.8%	1.54 64.9%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.47 68.0%
X	4.50 22.2%	4.97 20.1%	4.50 22.2%	4.50 22.2%	4.80 20.8%	4.60 21.7%
	5.25 19.1%	5.99 16.7%	5.50 18.2%	5.50 18.2%	5.70 17.5%	5.50 18.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Superbet
no	2.30 43.5%	2.32 43.1%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.35 42.6%	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.29 43.7%	2.25 44.4%
yes	1.57 63.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.65 60.6%	1.62 61.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.55 64.5%	1.63 61.4%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.50 40.0%	2.64 37.9%	2.60 38.5%	2.50 40.0%	2.55 39.2%	2.60 38.5%
home_away	1.15 87.0%	1.21 82.6%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.19 84.0%	1.17 85.5%
home_draw	1.14 87.7%	1.16 86.2%	1.14 87.7%	1.14 87.7%	1.17 85.5%	1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.07 93.5%
Over 1.5	1.15 87.0%	1.10 90.9%
Over 1.75	—	1.13 88.5%
Over 2.0	—	1.15 87.0%
Over 2.25	—	1.31 76.3%
Over 2.5	1.50 66.7%	1.43 69.9%
Over 3.5	2.20 45.5%	—
Over 4.5	3.75 26.7%	—
Over 5.5	7.00 14.3%	—
Under 1.5	5.25 19.1%	—
Under 2.5	2.55 39.2%	—
Under 3.5	1.65 60.6%	—
Under 4.5	1.25 80.0%	—
Under 5.5	1.09 91.7%	—

Match center

Real Madrid

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Athletic Club

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Rodrigo Eder Militao Ferlan Mendi Travmirovannye Oyan Sanset Niko Uilyams Unay Ekhilus Diskvalifitsirovannye Yuri Bershish CHAMP

Match center

Real Madrid

W W L W D

17.05 17:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 1:0 Sevilla

14.05 19:30 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 2:0 Oviedo

10.05 19:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 0:2 Barselona

03.05 19:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 2:0 Espanyol

24.04 19:00 UTC La Liga

Real Madrid 1:1 Real Betis

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.2 Scored

0.6 Conceded

10 Points

Athletic Club

D L L W L

17.05 17:00 UTC La Liga

Athletic Club 1:1 Selta

13.05 17:00 UTC La Liga

Athletic Club 0:2 Espanyol

10.05 14:15 UTC La Liga

Athletic Club 0:1 Valencia

02.05 16:30 UTC La Liga

Athletic Club 4:2 Alaves

25.04 19:00 UTC La Liga

Athletic Club 2:3 Atletiko Madrid

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.8 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyReal Madrid - Athletic Club

Real Madrid

2 matches total

Athletic Club

Real Madrid: 2 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Athletic Club: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Real Madrid 3:0 (03.12 18:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (3:0, 03.12 18:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 4

Match history

03.12 18:00 UTC

La Liga

Real Madrid

3:0

Athletic Club

20.04 19:00 UTC

La Liga

Real Madrid

1:0

Athletic Club

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Real Madrid

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Athletic Club

37 Games 37

26 Wins 13

5 Draws 6

6 Losses 18

73 Scored 41

33 Conceded 54

83 Points 45

115.65 Attacks 111.29

60.5 Dangerous attacks 53.91

0 Big chances 0

17.38 Shots on goal 13.3

6.57 Shots on target 4.54

niya 0.19 Goly Gonsalo Garsiya Daniel Karvakhal 1:0 12' Dzhud Bellingem Tyago Pitarch 2:0 41' Gorka Guruseta Inyaki Uilyams 2:1 45+1' Kilian Mbappe Alvaro Fernandes 3:1 51' Braim Dias Tyago Pitarch 4:1 88' Urko Iseta Inyaki Uilyams 4:2 90+1' Nakazaniya Tyago Pitarch 3' Dzhud Bellingem 20'

Real Madrid Atletik B 37 Games 37 26 Wins 13 5 Draws 6 Losses 18 73 Scored 41 33 Conceded 54 83 Points 45 115.65 Attacks 111.29 60.5 Dangerous attacks 53.91 0 Big chances 0 17.38 Shots on goal 13.3 6.57 Udary v stvor 4.54 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 6.38 Uglovye 5.86 1.92 Offsaydy 1.43 9.89 Foly 13.51 59.03 % vladeniya myachom 49.19 1.78 Warnings 2.08 0.16 Sendoffs 0.19 Goly Gonsalo Garsiya Daniel Karvakhal 1:0 12' Dzhud Bellingem Tyago Pitarch 2:0 41' Gorka Guruseta Inyaki Uilyams 2:1 45+1' Kilian Mbappe Alvaro Fernandes 3:1 51' Braim Dias Tyago Pitarch 4:1 88' Urko Iseta Inyaki Uilyams 4:2 90+1' Nakazaniya Tyago Pitarch 3' Dzhud Bellingem 20'