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La Liga
La Liga Spain
10.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
10.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Real Madrid - Girona

Spain Football
Stadium Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Capacity 85 454
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
1 : 1
Finished
Girona
Girona
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Real Madrid — 73%

1 · Real Madrid ✓ Pick73.0%
market72%
X · draw17.1%
market16%
2 · Girona9.8%
market11%

Model estimate: win Real Madrid 73.0%, draw 17.1%, win Girona 9.8%. Model favourite — Real Madrid.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Real Madrid - Girona April 10, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.

Strongest: Real Madrid - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.32 / X 5.80 / 2 8.42
  • 1X2 market: Real Madrid 72.2% / X 16.5% / Girona 11.4%
  • Glicko: Real Madrid 73.0% / X 17.1% / Girona 9.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 40.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 ✓ Pick 72.2%
X 16.4%
2 11.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%
Over 2.5 66.1%
Under 2.5 33.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 73.0%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 10.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)
Capacity 85,454

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Real Madrid 73%
💹 Market Real Madrid 7216%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Real Madrid - Girona

Real Madrid: Win 1.30 Real Madrid: Draw 6.00 Girona Win: 8.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Real Madrid bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Real Madrid menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov G…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 41
min Event Player Team
35' 35' Yellow Card | K. Mbappe Real Madrid
51' 51' Normal Goal | F. Valverde N. Aguerd Real Madrid
62' 62' Normal Goal | T. Lemar | assist/sub out: A. Martinez Girona
64' 64' Substitution 4 | Eder Militao | assist/sub out: D. Huijsen T. Fernández Real Madrid
64' 64' Substitution 5 | J. Bellingham | assist/sub out: A. Guler Real Madrid
64' 64' Substitution 2 | C. Echeverri | assist/sub out: A. Ruiz Girona
70' 70' Substitution 4 | T. Lemar | assist/sub out: H. Rincon Girona
70' 70' Substitution 3 | A. Ounahi | assist/sub out: B. Gil Girona
Metric Real Madrid Girona SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.3 0.52 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 3 final
Shots off target 7 5 final
Shots on target 9 2 final
Udary vsego 22 10 final
Fouls soversheno 9 13 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final
Offsides 3 0 final
Real Madrid #2 D. Carvajal, #3 Eder Militao, #5 J. Bellingham, #6 E. Camavinga, #7 Vinicius Junior, #8 F. Valverde, #10 K. Mbappe, #13 A. Lunin, #17 R. Asencio, #20 F. Garcia, #21 B. Diaz
Girona #4 A. Martinez, #11 T. Lemar, #12 Vitor Reis, #13 P. Gazzaniga, #14 C. Echeverri, #15 V. Tsygankov, #16 A. Frances, #18 A. Ounahi, #20 A. Witsel, #23 I. Martin, #24 A. Moreno
Player Team Metric SStats
Lass Kourouma Seyvy 0
A. Frances Girona football.player.assists 0
A. Frances Girona Dribling popytki 7
A. Frances Girona Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Frances Girona Edinoborstva vyigrano 11
A. Frances Girona Fouls soversheno 3
A. Frances Girona Seyvy 0
A. Frances Girona football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Frances Girona Klyuchevye pasy 44
A. Frances Girona Reyting (staryy) 7.2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Real Madrid 72.9% 73.0% market and model agree
Draw 16.2% 17.1% draw risk
Girona 11.0% 9.8%
xG - 2.27 : 0.70
Total 2.5 Over 40.9% - Under 59.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 73.0% / 17.1% / 9.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,696 / 1,503 Real Madrid / Girona
RD 81 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.42 market consensus · no value · model 9.8%
X 5.80 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 73.0%
Double chance
X2 3.41 market consensus · no value · model 27.0%
12 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 82.9%
1X 1.08 market consensus · no value · model 90.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.42 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.72 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.75 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.29 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.42 market consensus · no value · model 40.9%
Under 2.5 2.77 market consensus · weak value +63.6% · model 59.1%
Both teams to score
No 2.07 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.32 75.8% 1.35 74.1% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9%
X 5.60 17.9% 5.70 17.5% 6.05 16.5% 6.00 16.7% 5.80 17.2% 5.50 18.2%
7.50 13.3% 7.90 12.7% 9.05 11.1% 8.50 11.8% 8.50 11.8% 9.00 11.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.09 47.9% 2.12 47.2%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.74 57.5% 1.74 57.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.74 57.5% 1.66 60.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 3.30 30.3% 3.48 28.7% 3.40 29.4% 3.35 29.9% 3.50 28.6% 3.25 30.8%
home_away 1.10 90.9% 1.16 86.2% 1.12 89.3% 1.15 87.0% 1.11 90.1% 1.07 93.5%
home_draw 1.07 93.5% 1.09 91.7% 1.08 92.6% 1.10 90.9% 1.05 95.2% 1.09 91.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.12 89.3% — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.75 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 2.5 1.42 70.4% — —
Over 3.25 — 1.95 51.3% —
Over 3.5 2.10 47.6% 2.04 49.0% —
Over 4.5 3.45 29.0% — —
Over 5.5 6.25 16.0% — —
Under 1.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 2.5 2.80 35.7% — —
Under 3.25 — 1.95 51.3% —
Under 3.5 1.73 57.8% 1.86 53.8% —
Under 4.5 1.30 76.9% — —
Under 5.5 1.11 90.1% — —
Match center
Real Madrid
Founded 1902
Girona
Founded 1930
Match center
Real Madrid
FM F. Mendy Hamstring Injury
TC T. Courtois Thigh Injury
Girona
MT M. ter Stegen Hamstring Injury
DB Daley Blind Injury
Real Madrid Founded: 1902
Girona Founded: 1930
Match center
Real Madrid
L W W W L
04.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 1:2 MallorcaMallorca
22.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 3:2 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
14.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 4:1 ElcheElche
06.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 2:1 SeltaSelta
02.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 0:1 GetafeGetafe
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
9 Points
Girona
W L W D L
06.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:0 VillarrealVillarreal
21.03 17:30 UTC La Liga
Girona 0:1 OsasunaOsasuna
14.03 13:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 3:0 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
07.03 15:15 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:1 LevanteLevante
01.03 20:00 UTC La Liga
Girona 1:2 SeltaSelta
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyReal Madrid - Girona

Real Madrid
1 matches total
Girona
Real Madrid: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Girona: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 30.11 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (30.11 20:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

30.11 20:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid
1:1
Girona
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.