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La Liga
La Liga Spain
36 round 14.05.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction
14.05.2026 19:30 UTC 36 round
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Real Madrid - Oviedo

Spain Football
Stadium Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Capacity 85 454
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
2 : 0
Finished
Oviedo
Oviedo
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Real Madrid — 76%

1 · Real Madrid ✓ Pick76.2%
market78%
X · draw15.4%
market14%
2 · Oviedo8.4%
market8%

Model estimate: win Real Madrid 76.2%, draw 15.4%, win Oviedo 8.4%. Model favourite — Real Madrid.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Real Madrid - Oviedo May 14, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.

Strongest: Real Madrid - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.21 / X 6.85 / 2 12.37
  • 1X2 market: Real Madrid 78.4% / X 13.9% / Oviedo 7.7%
  • Glicko: Real Madrid 76.2% / X 15.4% / Oviedo 8.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 84.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 ✓ Pick 78.5%
X 13.9%
2 7.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.8%
Over 2.5 65.9%
Under 2.5 34.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 6/7
Confidence 79.2%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Stadium Santyago Bernabeu (Madrid, Spain), 62 774 zritelya (73% pri vmestimosti 85 454)
Referee De Burgos Bengoechea (Bilbao)
Start 14.05.2026 19:30 UTC
Capacity 85,454
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Real Madrid 76%
💹 Market Real Madrid 7837%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Real Madrid - Oviedo

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Real Madrid - Ovedo, 14 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Spain po futbolu (La Liga) 2025-2026, 36 round. Real Madrid - Ovedo, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 11
Statistics 20
Lineups 43
min Event Player Team
44' 44' Normal Goal | Gonzalo García G. Garcia Real Madrid
54' 54' Substitution 1 | Ilyas Chaira | assist/sub out: Santi Cazorla I. Chaira Oviedo
64' 64' Substitution 1 | Trent Alexander-Arnold | assist/sub out: Dani Carvajal T. Alexander-Arnold Real Madrid
64' 64' Substitution 2 | Aurélien Tchouaméni | assist/sub out: Jude Bellingham A. Tchouameni Real Madrid
69' 69' Substitution 2 | Thiago Fernández | assist/sub out: Haissem Hassan T. Fernández Oviedo
69' 69' Substitution 3 | Gonzalo García | assist/sub out: Kylian Mbappé G. Garcia Real Madrid
77' 77' Substitution 4 | Brahim Díaz | assist/sub out: C. Palacios B. Diaz Real Madrid
77' 77' Substitution 5 | Franco Mastantuono | assist/sub out: D. Yanez Franco Mastantuono Real Madrid
Metric Real Madrid Oviedo SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.36 1.04 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 3 final
Shots off target 7 5 final
Shots on target 7 1 final
Udary vsego 19 9 final
Fouls soversheno 7 14 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Ball possession, % 65 35 final
Real Madrid #1 T. Courtois, #7 Vinicius Junior, #18 A. Carreras, #21 B. Diaz, #4 D. Alaba, #14 A. Tchouameni, #16 G. Garcia, #6 E. Camavinga, #17 R. Asencio, #12 T. Alexander-Arnold, #30 Franco Mastantuono
Oviedo #3 Abdel Rahim, #5 A. Reina, #13 A. Escandell, #15 T. Fernández, #4 D. Costas, #9 F. Vinas, #11 S. Colombatto, #2 E. Bailly, #7 I. Chaira, #23 N. Fonseca, #22 N. Vidal
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Escandell Oviedo football.player.assists 0
A. Escandell Oviedo football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Reina Oviedo football.player.assists 0
A. Reina Oviedo football.player.minutes_played 90
Abdel Rahim Oviedo football.player.assists 0
Abdel Rahim Oviedo football.player.minutes_played 90
D. Costas Oviedo football.player.assists 0
D. Costas Oviedo football.player.minutes_played 90
E. Bailly Oviedo football.player.assists 0
E. Bailly Oviedo football.player.minutes_played 90
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Real Madrid 77.7% 76.2% market and model agree
Draw 14.1% 15.4% draw risk
Oviedo 8.2% 8.4%
xG - 2.43 : 0.67
Total 2.5 Over 84.7% - Under 15.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 76.2% / 15.4% / 8.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,681 / 1,422 Real Madrid / Oviedo
RD 77 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
X 8.50 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 76.2%
Double chance
12 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 84.6%
1X 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 91.6%
X2 7.20 Fonbet · no value · model 23.8%
Handicap
2 -1 4.40 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.30 Fonbet · line only
2 0 5.50 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.16 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.75 Fonbet · weak value +133.0% · model 84.7%
Under 2.5 1.42 Fonbet · no value · model 15.3%
Both teams to score
No 1.04 Fonbet · line only
Yes 8.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.21 82.6% 1.23 81.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.24 80.7% 1.18 84.8%
X 6.50 15.4% 7.14 14.0% 6.50 15.4% 7.00 14.3% 7.10 14.1% 6.50 15.4%
11.00 9.1% 14.00 7.1% 11.00 9.1% 12.00 8.3% 13.00 7.7% 12.00 8.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.76 56.8% 1.85 54.1%
yes 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.87 53.5% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.87 53.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 4.33 23.1% 4.62 21.7% 4.00 25.0% 4.00 25.0% 4.45 22.5% 4.33 23.1%
home_away 1.10 90.9% 1.12 89.3% 1.13 88.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.11 90.1% 1.08 92.6%
home_draw 1.03 97.1% 1.03 97.1% 1.05 95.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.06 94.3% 1.03 97.1%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.14 87.7% 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.75 — 1.12 89.3%
Over 2.0 — 1.14 87.7%
Over 2.25 — 1.29 77.5%
Over 2.5 1.45 69.0% 1.42 70.4%
Over 2.75 — 1.53 65.4%
Over 3.5 2.10 47.6% —
Over 4.5 3.45 29.0% —
Over 5.5 6.25 16.0% —
Under 1.5 5.50 18.2% —
Under 2.5 2.70 37.0% —
Under 3.5 1.70 58.8% —
Under 4.5 1.30 76.9% —
Under 5.5 1.11 90.1% —
Match center
Real Madrid
Founded 1902
Oviedo
Founded 1926
Match center
Real Madrid

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Oviedo

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Rodrigo Eder Militao Arda Gyuler Federiko Valverde Ferlan Mendi Travmirovannye Leander Dendonker Diskvalifitsirovannye Khaver Lopes Kvasi Sibo CHAMP
Real Madrid Founded: 1902
Oviedo Founded: 1926
Match center
Real Madrid
L W D W D
10.05 19:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 0:2 BarselonaBarselona
03.05 19:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 2:0 EspanyolEspanyol
24.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 1:1 Real BetisReal Betis
21.04 19:30 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 2:1 AlavesAlaves
10.04 19:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 1:1 GironaGirona
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
8 Points
Oviedo
D L L D W
10.05 16:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 0:0 GetafeGetafe
03.05 16:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 0:3 Real BetisReal Betis
26.04 14:15 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 1:2 ElcheElche
23.04 19:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 1:1 VillarrealVillarreal
12.04 16:30 UTC La Liga
Oviedo 3:0 SeltaSelta
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyReal Madrid - Oviedo

Real Madrid
1 matches total
Oviedo
Real Madrid: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Oviedo: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Real Madrid 3:0 (24.08 19:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (3:0, 24.08 19:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 3

Match history

24.08 19:30 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid
3:0
Oviedo
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Real Madrid
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Oviedo
Real Madrid Team comparison Oviedo
35 Games 35
24 Wins 6
5 Draws 11
6 Losses 18
70 Scored 26
33 Conceded 54
77 Points 29
117.16 Attacks 84.63
61.47 Dangerous attacks 36.54
0 Big chances 0
17.49 Shots on goal 9.77
6.71 Shots on target 3.37
7 Sendoffs 0.29 Goly Gonsalo Garsiya Braim Dias 1:0 44' Dzhud Bellingem Kilian Mbappe 2:0 80'

Real Madrid Ovedo 35 Games 35 24 Wins 6 5 Draws 11 6 Losses 18 70 Scored 26 33 Conceded 54 77 Points 29 117.16 Attacks 84.63 61.47 Dangerous attacks 36.54 0 Big chances 0 17.49 Shots on goal 9.77 6.71 Udary v stvor 3.37 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 6.51 Uglovye 3.86 1.89 Offsaydy 2.14 9.91 Foly 12.46 58.86 % vladeniya myachom 45.71 1.89 Warnings 2.09 0.17 Sendoffs 0.29 Goly Gonsalo Garsiya Braim Dias 1:0 44' Dzhud Bellingem Kilian Mbappe 2:0 80'