Match center
Start
04.10.2025 19:00 UTC
04.10.2025 19:00 UTC
Finished
La Liga
Real Madrid - Villarreal
3
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Real Madrid - Villarreal 4 октября 2025
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.
Line favourite market consensus: Real Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.42 / X 5.07 / 2 6.75
- 1X2 market: Real Madrid 67.0% / X 18.8% / Villarreal 14.2%
- Total 2.5: over probability 66.3%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.0%
1
67.1%
X
18.8%
2
14.1%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.3%
Over 2.5
66.3%
Under 2.5
33.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Real Madrid - Villarreal
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
6.79
market consensus · line only
X
5.09
market consensus · line only
1
1.42
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
2.88
market consensus · line only
12
1.17
market consensus · line only
1X
1.12
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.92
market consensus · line only
2 -1
2.30
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
6.00
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.42
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.42
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
2.79
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.28
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.59
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| П1 | 1.42 70.4% |
| Х | 5.28 18.9% |
| П2 | 7.29 13.7% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| П1 | 1.42 70.4% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.47 68.0% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.45 69.0% |
| Х | 5.00 20.0% | 5.30 18.9% | 5.20 19.2% | 4.80 20.8% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.00 20.0% |
| П2 | 6.50 15.4% | 6.20 16.1% | 6.99 14.3% | 6.00 16.7% | 7.00 14.3% | 7.40 13.5% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.25 44.4% | 2.36 42.4% | 2.24 44.6% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.21 45.3% | 2.39 41.8% |
| yes | 1.57 63.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.59 62.9% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.59 62.9% | 1.62 61.7% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.80 35.7% | 2.90 34.5% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.75 36.4% | 2.90 34.5% | 2.93 34.1% |
| home_away | 1.12 89.3% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.19 84.0% |
| home_draw | 1.11 90.1% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.12 89.3% |
Match center
Real Madrid
L
W
W
W
W
27.09 14:15 UTC
La Liga
Real Madrid
2:5
Atletiko Madrid
Atletiko Madrid
23.09 19:30 UTC
La Liga
Real Madrid
4:1
Леванте
Леванте
20.09 14:15 UTC
La Liga
Real Madrid
2:0
Espanyol
Espanyol
13.09 14:15 UTC
La Liga
Real Madrid
2:1
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
30.08 19:30 UTC
La Liga
Real Madrid
2:1
Mallorca
Mallorca
4
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
2.4
Scored
1.6
Conceded
12
Points
Villarreal
W
W
W
L
D
27.09 19:00 UTC
La Liga
Villarreal
1:0
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
23.09 19:30 UTC
La Liga
Villarreal
2:1
Sevilla
Sevilla
20.09 16:30 UTC
La Liga
Villarreal
2:1
Osasuna
Osasuna
13.09 19:00 UTC
La Liga
Villarreal
0:2
Atletiko Madrid
Atletiko Madrid
31.08 15:00 UTC
La Liga
Villarreal
1:1
Selta
Selta
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.2
Scored
1.0
Conceded
10
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyReal Madrid - Villarreal
Real Madrid
1
matches total
Real Madrid: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Villarreal: 0 (0%)
Biggest win
Real Madrid 2:0 (05.10 19:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
2 goals (2:0, 05.10 19:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
05.10 19:00 UTC
La Liga
La Liga
Real Madrid
2:0
Villarreal