Match center
Start
11.04.2026 12:00 UTC
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11.04.2026 12:00 UTC
Finished
La Liga
Real Sociedad - Alaves
3
:
3
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Real Sociedad — 52%
Model estimate: win Real Sociedad 51.8%, draw 24.9%, win Alaves 23.3%. Model favourite — Real Sociedad.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Real Sociedad - Alaves April 11, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Sociedad.
Strongest: Real Sociedad - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.74 / X 3.76 / 2 4.75
- 1X2 market: Real Sociedad 54.6% / X 25.3% / Alaves 20.1%
- Glicko: Real Sociedad 51.8% / X 24.9% / Alaves 23.3%
- Total 2.5: over probability 44.3%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.1%
1
54.7%
X
25.3%
2
20.0%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5
52.4%
Under 2.5
47.6%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
53.7%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:0
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Real Sociedad 52%
💹 Market
Real Sociedad 5461%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Real Sociedad - Alaves
Real Sociedad: Win 1.73 Real Sociedad: Draw 3.75 Alaves Win: 4.75 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.80 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Real Sociedad bolshe 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Real Sociedad menshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total…
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
2
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
yes
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
3:3
Events
5
Statistics
26
Lineups
44
min
Event
Player
Team
3'
3' Own Goal | Duje Ćaleta-Car
F. Rossi
Alaves
14'
14' Normal Goal | Luka Sučić | assist/sub out: Ander Barrenetxea
D. Kružliak
Real Sociedad
24'
24' Normal Goal | Ibrahim Diabaté
Alaves
27'
27' Own Goal | Antonio Sivera
Real Sociedad
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Ander Barrenetxea | assist/sub out: Gonçalo Guedes
Real Sociedad
Metric
Real Sociedad
Alaves
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.94
1.13
final
Zablokirovannye udary
4
3
final
Shots off target
4
7
final
Shots on target
4
2
final
Udary vsego
12
12
final
Fouls soversheno
11
18
final
Red cards
1
0
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
4
final
Real Sociedad
#1 Sivera, #7 A. Perez, #8 Antonio Blanco, #11 Toni MartGnez, #14 N. Tenaglia, #17 Jonny, #18 Jon Guridi, #19 Pablo IbGЎG±ez, #21 A. Rebbach, #22 I. Diabate, #24 VGctor Parada
Alaves
#1 GЃlex Remiro, #2 J. Aramburu, #6 Elustondo, #7 Barrenetxea, #8 BeG±at Turrientes, #9 O. G“skarsson, #16 D. Caleta-Car, #17 Sergio GGіmez, #18 Carlos Soler, #23 Brais MG©ndez, #24 L. Sucic
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Egoitz MuG±oz
Seyvy
0
A. Perez
Real Sociedad
football.player.assists
0
A. Perez
Real Sociedad
Dribling popytki
6
A. Perez
Real Sociedad
Dribling uspeshno
3
A. Perez
Real Sociedad
Edinoborstva vyigrano
11
A. Perez
Real Sociedad
Fouls soversheno
1
A. Perez
Real Sociedad
Fouls na igroke
1
A. Perez
Real Sociedad
Seyvy
0
A. Perez
Real Sociedad
football.player.minutes_played
86
A. Perez
Real Sociedad
Tochnost pasov %
2
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Real Sociedad
55.2%
51.8%
market and model agree
Draw
25.1%
24.9%
draw risk
Alaves
19.8%
23.3%
xG
-
1.61 : 0.99
Total 2.5
Over 44.3%
-
Under 55.7%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.04
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
51.8% / 24.9% / 23.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,539 / 1,464
Real Sociedad / Alaves
RD
74 / 74
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.75
market consensus · no value · model 23.3%
X
3.76
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.74
market consensus · no value · model 51.8%
Double chance
X2
2.08
market consensus · no value · model 48.2%
12
1.25
market consensus · no value · model 75.1%
1X
1.18
market consensus · no value · model 76.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.12
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.62
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
4.40
market consensus · line only
2 +1
9.00
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.82
market consensus · no value · model 44.3%
Under 2.5
2.00
market consensus · value +11.4% · model 55.7%
Both teams to score
No
2.00
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.75
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.71 58.5% | 1.74 57.5% | 1.79 55.9% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.78 56.2% | 1.73 57.8% | |
| X | 3.65 27.4% | 3.85 26.0% | 3.96 25.3% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.85 26.0% | 3.70 27.0% |
| 4.80 20.8% | 4.75 21.1% | 4.92 20.3% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.90 20.4% | 4.75 21.1% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.95 51.3% | 2.14 46.7% | 1.98 50.5% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.02 49.5% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.05 48.8% | 1.96 51.0% | 1.94 51.6% |
| yes | 1.80 55.6% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.78 56.2% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.05 48.8% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.12 47.2% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.05 48.8% |
| home_away | 1.22 82.0% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.20 83.3% |
| home_draw | 1.17 85.5% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.21 82.6% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.18 84.8% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 95.2% | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.25 | — | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| Over 2.5 | 1.85 54.1% | 1.83 54.6% | — |
| Over 2.75 | — | 2.03 49.3% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.10 32.3% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 6.00 16.7% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.00 11.1% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.55 28.2% | — | — |
| Under 2.25 | — | 2.06 48.5% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.91 52.4% | 2.07 48.3% | — |
| Under 2.75 | — | 1.87 53.5% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.35 74.1% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.12 89.3% | — | — |
Match center
Real Sociedad
Founded
1909
Alaves
Founded
1921
Match center
Real Sociedad
O
Odriozola
Knee Injury
YH
Y. Herrera
Calf Injury
Alaves
CB
C. Benavídez
Muscle Injury
FG
F. Garcés
Suspended
Real Sociedad
Founded: 1909
Alaves
Founded: 1921
Match center
Real Sociedad
W
L
W
L
W
04.04 12:00 UTC
La Liga
Real Sociedad
2:0
Levante
Levante
20.03 20:00 UTC
La Liga
Real Sociedad
1:3
Villarreal
Villarreal
15.03 20:00 UTC
La Liga
Real Sociedad
3:1
Osasuna
Osasuna
07.03 17:30 UTC
La Liga
Real Sociedad
2:3
Atletiko Madrid
Atletiko Madrid
28.02 17:30 UTC
La Liga
Real Sociedad
1:0
Mallorca
Mallorca
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.8
Scored
1.4
Conceded
9
Points
Alaves
D
W
D
L
L
05.04 19:00 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
2:2
Osasuna
Osasuna
22.03 15:15 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
4:3
Selta
Selta
13.03 20:00 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
1:1
Villarreal
Villarreal
08.03 20:00 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
2:3
Valencia
Valencia
27.02 20:00 UTC
La Liga
Alaves
0:2
Levante
Levante
1
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
1.8
Scored
2.2
Conceded
5
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyReal Sociedad - Alaves
Real Sociedad
2
matches total
Real Sociedad: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Alaves: 2 (100%)
Biggest win
Alaves 0:1 (06.12 15:15 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
1 goals (0:1, 06.12 15:15 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
06.12 15:15 UTC
La Liga
La Liga
Real Sociedad
0:1
Alaves
23.04 19:30 UTC
La Liga
La Liga
Real Sociedad
0:1
Alaves
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
Unlock the full match prediction
The Real Sociedad - Alaves breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form