La Liga
La Liga Spain
14.09.2024 19:00 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Real Sociedad - Real Madrid

Spain Futbol
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
0 : 2
Finished
Real Madrid
Real Madrid

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Real Sociedad - Real Madrid 14 сентября 2024

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Real Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.69 / X 3.78 / 2 1.81
  • 1X2 market: Real Sociedad 20.7% / X 25.7% / Real Madrid 53.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.0%
1 20.7%
X 25.7%
2 53.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 2.4%
Over 2.5 48.6%
Under 2.5 51.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.09.2024 19:00 UTC
Match center

Real Sociedad - Real Madrid

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.81 market consensus · line only
X 3.78 market consensus · line only
1 4.69 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.22 market consensus · line only
12 1.32 market consensus · line only
1X 2.08 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.01 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 4.69 21.3%
Х 3.78 26.5%
П2 1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.22 82.0%
home_away 1.32 75.8%
home_draw 2.08 48.1%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
ТБ 2.5 2.01 49.8%
ТМ 2.5 1.90 52.6%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 3.47 28.8%
П2 1.34 74.6%
Match center
Real Sociedad
D
01.09 17:15 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 0:0 GetafeGetafe
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
0.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
1 Points
Real Madrid
W
01.09 19:30 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 2:0 Реал БетисРеал Бетис
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points