La Liga
La Liga Spain
13.09.2025 14:15 UTC
Finished

La Liga

Spain

Real Sociedad - Real Madrid

Spain Futbol
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
1 : 2
Finished
Real Madrid
Real Madrid

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Real Sociedad - Real Madrid 13 сентября 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Real Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.41 / X 4.21 / 2 1.60
  • 1X2 market: Real Sociedad 17.7% / X 22.7% / Real Madrid 59.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 57.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7%
1 17.6%
X 22.7%
2 59.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 57.4%
Under 2.5 42.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 13.09.2025 14:15 UTC
Match center

Real Sociedad - Real Madrid

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.60 market consensus · line only
X 4.21 market consensus · line only
1 5.41 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.16 market consensus · line only
12 1.23 market consensus · line only
1X 2.36 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.16 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.58 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.01 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 5.13 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.24 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.07 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 5.54 18.1%
Х 4.20 23.8%
П2 1.62 61.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
П1 5.50 18.2% 5.40 18.5% 5.58 17.9% 5.00 20.0% 5.25 19.1% 5.60 17.9%
Х 4.20 23.8% 4.35 23.0% 4.40 22.7% 4.00 25.0% 4.20 23.8% 4.20 23.8%
П2 1.57 63.7% 1.61 62.1% 1.64 61.0% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.65 60.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Dafabet Marathonbet
no 2.10 47.6% 2.19 45.7% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 1.99 50.3% 2.03 49.3%
yes 1.67 59.9% 1.68 59.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.65 60.6% 1.73 57.8% 1.83 54.6% 1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Dafabet
draw_away 1.14 87.7% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.23 81.3%
home_draw 2.35 42.6% 2.40 41.7% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.32 43.1% 2.20 45.5%
Match center
Real Sociedad
L D D L W
30.08 17:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 0:1 OviedoOviedo
24.08 17:30 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 2:2 EspanyolEspanyol
16.08 19:30 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 1:1 ValenciaValencia
24.05 14:15 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 0:2 Real MadridReal Madrid
18.05 17:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad 3:2 GironaGirona
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
5 Points
Real Madrid
W W W W W
30.08 19:30 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 2:1 MallorcaMallorca
24.08 19:30 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 3:0 OviedoOviedo
19.08 19:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 1:0 OsasunaOsasuna
24.05 14:15 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 2:0 Real SociedadReal Sociedad
18.05 17:00 UTC La Liga
Real Madrid 2:0 SevillaSevilla
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.2 Conceded
15 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyReal Sociedad - Real Madrid

Real Sociedad
2 matches total
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Real Madrid: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Real Madrid 0:2 (24.05 14:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 24.05 14:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 0

Match history

24.05 14:15 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad
0:2
Real Madrid
14.09 19:00 UTC La Liga
Real Sociedad
0:2
Real Madrid