Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.

La Liga Spain

11.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

11.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Finished

La Liga

Sevilla - Atletico Madrid

Spain Football

Stadium Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

Capacity 48 649

Sevilla

2 : 1

Finished

Atletico Madrid

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Atletico Madrid — 40%

1 · Sevilla32.7%

X · draw27.5%

2 · Atletico Madrid39.8%

Model estimate: win Sevilla 32.7%, draw 27.5%, win Atletico Madrid 39.8%. Model favourite — Atletico Madrid.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sevilla - Atletico Madrid April 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sevilla.

Line favourite market consensus: Sevilla. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.41 / X 3.32 / 2 3.06
1X2 market: Sevilla 39.9% / X 28.7% / Atletico Madrid 31.4%
Glicko: Sevilla 32.7% / X 27.5% / Atletico Madrid 39.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 43.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.3%

1 39.8%

X 28.9%

2 31.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%

Over 2.5 48.6%

Under 2.5 51.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 29.4%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center

Start 11.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Stadium Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán (Sevilla)

Capacity 48,649

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ????? ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Atletico Madrid 40%

💹 Market Sevilla 3990%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Sevilla - Atletico Madrid

Sevilla: Win 2.25 Sevilla: Draw 3.40 Atletico Madrid Win: 3.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Sevilla bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Sevilla menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Atletico…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:1

Events 20

Statistics 24

Lineups 45

min Event Player Team

0' 0' Yellow Card | Antoine Griezmann Atletico Madrid

8' 8' Penalty confirmed | I. Romero Sevilla

10' 10' Penalty | A. Adams Sevilla

35' 35' Normal Goal | Javier BoG±ar Atletico Madrid

36' 36' Yellow Card | M. Bueno Sevilla

44' 44' Yellow Card | Julio Díaz Atletico Madrid

45' 45' Normal Goal | N. Gudelj | assist/sub out: R. Vargas BeG±at Prados Sevilla

67' 67' Yellow Card | J. Sanchez Sevilla

Metric Sevilla Atletico Madrid SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.85 0.84 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 4 final

Shots off target 4 7 final

Shots on target 2 2 final

Udary vsego 11 13 final

Fouls soversheno 7 12 final

Zheltye kartochki 4 4 final

Offsides 2 1 final

Sevilla #1 J. Musso, #4 R. Mendoza, #9 A. Sorloth, #10 A. Baena, #11 T. Almada, #18 M. Pubill, #21 O. Vargas, #29 Rayane Belaid, #30 D. Martinez, #32 Javier BoG±ar, #34 Julio DGaz

Atletico Madrid #1 O. Vlachodimos, #4 Kike Salas, #6 N. Gudelj, #7 Isaac, #9 A. Adams, #11 R. Vargas, #16 Juanlu Sánchez, #18 L. Agoumé, #28 Manu Bueno, #32 Andrés Castrín, #36 Oso

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Baena Sevilla football.player.assists 0

A. Baena Sevilla Dribling popytki 4

A. Baena Sevilla Dribling uspeshno 2

A. Baena Sevilla Edinoborstva vyigrano 8

A. Baena Sevilla Fouls soversheno 2

A. Baena Sevilla Fouls na igroke 1

A. Baena Sevilla Seyvy 0

A. Baena Sevilla football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Baena Sevilla Tochnost pasov % 2

A. Baena Sevilla Klyuchevye pasy 48

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Sevilla 35.5% 32.7% market favourite

Draw 31.4% 27.5% draw risk

Atletico Madrid 33.1% 39.8% Glicko contrarian

xG - 1.13 : 1.28

Total 2.5 Over 43.2% - Under 56.9%

Model check - - Difference 0.07

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 32.7% / 27.5% / 39.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,439 / 1,625 Sevilla / Atletico Madrid

RD 74 / 77 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.06 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 39.8%

X 3.32 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.41 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 32.7%

Double chance

X2 1.59 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 67.3%

12 1.31 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 72.5%

1X 1.38 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 60.2%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.63 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.28 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.75 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.36 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.97 market consensus · no value · model 43.2%

Under 2.5 1.86 market consensus · value +5.7% · model 56.9%

Both teams to score

No 2.03 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	3.10 32.3%	2.27 44.1%	2.35 42.6%	2.25 44.4%	2.27 44.1%	2.30 43.5%
X	3.15 31.8%	3.40 29.4%	3.46 28.9%	3.40 29.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.40 29.4%
	2.34 42.7%	3.25 30.8%	3.32 30.1%	3.10 32.3%	3.10 32.3%	3.20 31.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.93 51.8%	2.13 47.0%	2.02 49.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.02 49.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	2.06 48.5%
yes	1.80 55.6%	1.72 58.1%	1.72 58.1%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.36 73.5%	1.67 59.9%	1.50 66.7%	1.67 59.9%	1.57 63.7%	1.60 62.5%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.29 77.5%
home_draw	1.57 63.7%	1.38 72.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.07 93.5%	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5	1.38 72.5%	—	—
Over 2.25	—	1.76 56.8%	—
Over 2.5	2.10 47.6%	1.99 50.3%	—
Over 3.5	3.80 26.3%	—	—
Over 4.5	7.50 13.3%	—	—
Under 0.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.00 33.3%	—	—
Under 2.25	—	2.14 46.7%	—
Under 2.5	1.70 58.8%	1.91 52.4%	—
Under 3.5	1.25 80.0%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.08 92.6%	—	—

Match center

Sevilla

Founded 1890

Atletico Madrid

Founded 1903

Match center

Sevilla

M Marcão Knee Injury

CA César Azpilicueta Injury

Atletico Madrid

JO J. Oblak Muscle Injury

JG J. Giménez Injury

Sevilla Founded: 1890

Atletico Madrid Founded: 1903

Match center

Sevilla

L L L D D

05.04 16:30 UTC La Liga

Sevilla 0:1 Oviedo

21.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Sevilla 0:2 Valencia

15.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Sevilla 2:5 Barselona

08.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Sevilla 1:1 Rayo Vallecano

01.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Sevilla 2:2 Real Betis

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

1.0 Scored

2.2 Conceded

2 Points

Atletico Madrid

L L W W W

04.04 19:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 1:2 Barselona

22.03 20:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 2:3 Real Madrid

14.03 15:15 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 1:0 Getafe

07.03 17:30 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 3:2 Real Sociedad

28.02 20:00 UTC La Liga

Atletico Madrid 1:0 Oviedo

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.4 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historySevilla - Atletico Madrid

Sevilla

2 matches total

Atletico Madrid

Sevilla: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Atletico Madrid: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Atletiko Madrid 0:3 (01.11 15:15 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 01.11 15:15 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 5

5 Goals conceded 1

Match history

01.11 15:15 UTC

La Liga

Sevilla

0:3

Atletiko Madrid

06.04 14:15 UTC

La Liga

Sevilla

1:2

Atletiko Madrid

Match center

? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.